Why Does The Real Estate Bubble Become More Expensive?

Small and medium sized southeastern coastal areas to contribute to China's economic miracle

As a big country with the largest number of trade in the world and the largest country with trade dependence, the change of external economic environment has always had an important impact on China's economic trend. The external economic environment we are facing now is precisely the pressure of continued recession.

The economic cycle is the operation characteristic that the market economy can not be eradicated. The cycle of the capital cycle is usually 3-5 years, the UG cycle (investment cycle) is usually 7-11 years, the Kuznets cycle (construction cycle) is usually 15-25 years, and the Kondratiev cycle (long wave) is 45-60 years.

If a country and the world enter the downward stage of Kondratiev's long wave, then a few years or even 10 years of recession can not escape.

After World War II, due to the widespread use of macroeconomic regulation and control, the economic crisis intensity of the developed capitalist countries was generally eased, the economic contraction time was obviously shortened, and the economic decline of the two figure was even more rare.

After the collapse of Japan's bubble economy, it has not been able to extricate itself from the "lost ten years" until now, but it is confined to a country in Japan. This subprime crisis, the US and European sovereign debt crisis, has broken the above characteristics, not only sweeping all developed countries, but also for a long time.

Moreover, compared with the climax of the previous two years' subprime mortgage crisis, the severity of the current global economic trend is also manifested in the emerging market economy is becoming the source of new potential crisis, instead of being affected by the crisis of the developed countries in the past two years, playing the role of world economic Savior.

This is mainly due to the end of the bull market of primary products, the side effects of anti crisis measures and the accumulation of macro risks in emerging market economies.

After all, among the BRICs of the most popular emerging market economies, except China is the world's factory, the economies of four other countries such as India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa are quite dependent on the production and export of primary products.

At the beginning of this year, the four countries have gone through a severe exchange rate depreciation, stock market decline and capital flight.

Once the serious economic crisis has broken out in these hot emerging markets, even if China's domestic economic fundamentals are fundamentally different from them, it is difficult to avoid the contagion effect in the financial market entirely.

In all parts of the country, the economic exportability of the coastal areas represented by Guangdong is much higher than the national average level, so the change of the external environment is more sensitive.

In 2010, the import and export volume of Guangdong's goods trade ranked the highest in the provincial administrative regions of the country, 67% higher than the second Jiangsu, and the dependence on foreign trade as high as 124%, which was about one and a half times higher than that of the national average (51%). It was second only to Shanghai (147%) in all provincial administrative regions of the country, and was one and a half higher than that in Jiangsu.

Originally, in recent years, with the rising cost of labor, land and other factors, the price competitiveness of the traditional labor intensive industries in China has been increasingly shaken. Competition from some developing countries such as Vietnam and India has become increasingly aggressive. Vietnam has replaced China as the largest processing and export base of Nike shoes, and now the new round of crisis pressure is increasing. What should our small and medium-sized enterprises do?

Yes, in the face of the rising uncertainty of external economic environment, our macroeconomic policy objective is shifting from "pressure inflation" to "maintaining growth".

However, there are obvious limitations in the intensity and mode of this shift. Due to the increased financial pressure and the revival of asset bubbles, it is impossible to adopt a comprehensive stimulus package similar to the previous two years' subprime crisis.

It is not realistic for enterprises to simply hope to ease the difficulties of monetary policy and fiscal policy in an all-round way. Our enterprises still need to save themselves.

The premise of self-help is to reconsider whether there is any misunderstanding in the development of these two years. In particular, we need to reflect on whether we have fallen into the wrong way of pursuing asset bubbles blindly.

The asset bubble in previous years has brought enormous pressure to many small and medium-sized enterprises. The real estate bubble has increased the operating costs of small and medium-sized enterprises, and has attracted many small and medium-sized enterprises to abandon their original businesses and engage in speculation in real estate and other asset markets.

But in this year's business owners in Wenzhou and other places, the collapse of enterprises is not just because of credit constraints, but because they are too keen on asset market speculation and folk usury games, so that they can not extricate themselves.

Our small and medium-sized enterprises need to understand that compared with other governments, the Chinese government is a strong government. Although it can not completely avoid the influence of interest groups in the asset market, it is far more detached than other governments. Therefore, it is more qualified, capable and strong in restraining asset bubbles and maintaining and consolidating the industrial foundation.

Our small and medium-sized enterprises may make appropriate use of the asset market, but we need to stick to industry.

On the basis of adhering to the industry, our SMEs need to respond to changes in the economic environment.

First of all, in the short term and medium term, enterprises need to change the expected appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the trade, recognizing that the RMB exchange rate will be greatly devalued for the rest of this year and at least the first half of next year, and the volatility will be strengthened, so that a series of corresponding adjustment arrangements will be made in terms of pricing, settlement and currency.

Secondly, in the medium and long term, our small and medium-sized enterprises need to decide the next direction of development according to their own situation. Are they sticking to shoes or other manufacturing industries or turning to the service industry? After all, in some traditional labor-intensive production links and domestic consumption growth, the service industry has a bright future.

Third, for small and medium-sized enterprises that are committed to manufacturing, they need to upgrade their products and trade patterns or pfer production to the mainland, thereby resolving the challenge of rising costs and weakening their competitiveness.