China's Economic And Price Growth Will Be "Double Down" &Nbsp Next Year; Monetary Policy Is Stable

The report issued by the International Finance Research Institute of Bank of China on Wednesday is expected that China's economic and price growth will double down in 2012, with GDP growth of about 8.8%, CPI, under the influence of external environment deterioration, property market adjustment and overcapacity. Gain It dropped to about 3.5%.

China's economy in the first quarter of 2012 Finance In the first half of next year, the mainland bank deposit reserve rate will be reduced by more than two times, and the short-term adjustment is still in place in the first half of next year. interest rate It is unlikely that monetary policy is still at the core of stability.

The RMB exchange rate will continue to adhere to the principle of initiative, controllability and gradualism, so as to accelerate the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism and increase the possibility of two-way fluctuation. It is estimated that the appreciation rate of RMB will not be too large, about 3%.

"The three meeting of the world economy slowdown, the regulation of property market and the risk of local government debt" is the biggest risk facing the Chinese economy. Macroeconomic policies need to achieve the best balance between steady growth, structural adjustment and inflation control, especially in the current situation. "The report says.

In terms of real estate regulation, the report considers that the direction of regulation and control will remain unchanged next year to prevent retaliatory rebound of housing prices; in order to promote the steady development of the real estate industry and prevent the impact of capital chain breakage on commercial banks' systemic risks, the regulation of real estate in the future should be structured fine.

First of all, we should implement structural easing policy for the first set of housing loans, reduce the down payment ratio of first-time home buyers, and increase the interest rate preference for first-time home buyers, so as to promote the support role of rigid demand for the steady development of real estate.

Secondly, when making the purchase restriction policy, we should not take "household registration" as the sole condition, but also consider the long lived residence, the complete and continuous resident tax records. Furthermore, we encourage commercial banks to increase the financial support for the construction of affordable housing so as to promote the steady growth of real estate investment.

* * commercial banks have opportunities and challenges.

It is expected that the asset quality of commercial banks will face various challenges next year, and capital constraints will also exist for a long time.

It is expected that the scale of monetary and credit will increase slightly in 2012 than in 2011. It is estimated to be around 8 trillion yuan. Therefore, the scale of banking assets will steadily increase. In addition, with the full promotion of RMB cross-border trade settlement, more and more foreign trade enterprises will be able to avoid exchange rate risk and reduce transaction costs through cross-border trade settlement, and the scale of RMB settlement will continue to expand.

"From all indications, China will accelerate the opening of the final stage of the RMB capital account. In the coming period, the possibility of absolute convertibility of RMB will not be great, but the possibility of liberalization in some controllable areas will be greater. "The report says.

In terms of challenges, real estate and local financing platforms will be the main source of risk for commercial banks.

"The continued downturn in real estate will also bring down the price of land transactions, thereby affecting the local government's revenue and solvency. In the next two years, it will be the peak repayment period of the local financing platform, so the local financing platform has a large concentration of risk of outbreak," the report pointed out.

In order to deepen the reform of interest rate marketization, commercial banks are faced with multiple pressures such as business transformation. In the process of interest rate marketization, the fluctuation of interest rate level will increase significantly and the trend is more difficult to predict. This will increase the difficulty of controlling the financing cost of commercial banks and increase the uncertainty of bank earnings.

On the other hand, with the gradual implementation of the new capital adequacy standard, commercial banks will face higher regulatory standards such as capital adequacy ratio, leverage ratio, liquidity and loan reserve. The capital adequacy ratio and provision pressure of commercial banks will continue to increase, and the "credit constraint" is still grim. The CBRC put forward a higher risk weight calculation requirement for the financing platform, resulting in a further decline in capital adequacy ratio, and the downside risk will force commercial banks to make more provision, which will further affect the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks.