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Cotton Concussion Is More Than &Nbsp; Upward Space Is Limited.

2011/12/29 8:58:00 22

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Tuesday

Zheng cotton

Increasing the volume of the warehouse, the main 1205 contract broke through the previous high of 20810, setting a new high of 20875, making the market place a higher hope for the cotton market again.

According to the analysis, Zheng cotton has gradually raised its bottom and the average line shows a multi head arrangement under the support of purchasing and storage. It shows that the trend of mid and short term continues to rise, but the rising height and the rising rhythm are affected by the cotton policy. The main force is facing greater pressure near 23000.

The main reasons are as follows:

First, Zheng cotton's rise is mainly supported by policies.

As of December 27th, the state has accumulated

store up

Nearly 1 million 920 thousand tons of domestic cotton in 2011.

Since mid November, the state has increased the intensity of cotton purchasing and storage, increasing the daily reserves to more than 100 thousand tons. In view of the difficulties in the storage of cotton and cotton in the mainland, the state has put forward a series of corresponding solutions. Since December 28th, the state has further increased the daily reserves to more than 150 thousand tons per day, which fully demonstrates the determination of the state to collect and hold the market.

It is estimated that by the end of March, domestic storage capacity will be over 2 million 500 thousand tons. The purchase and storage will reduce the circulation of cotton in the market and will significantly improve the supply and demand relationship of the market.

Second, the downstream textile industry is still sluggish.

According to the sample survey conducted in the early December, the start-up rate of cotton spinning enterprises above 50 thousand spindles is less than 80%. If considering the start-up and downtime of small production enterprises and small cotton spinning enterprises, the comprehensive start-up rate of cotton spinning enterprises is hardly more than 70%.

Some small textile enterprises are short of orders, and leave early. Some enterprises leave from New Year's day to the first month of fifteen.

On the other hand, the increase in finished goods inventory of textile enterprises also limits the willingness of the textile enterprises to purchase cotton. The yarn and grey fabric production and sale rates of textile enterprises are reduced, and the inventory of textile products has increased, especially the inventory of grey fabrics has increased to a higher level in the past two years.

Third, the larger price difference between inside and outside markets has reduced the competitive advantage of Chinese textiles.

This year, the international supply of cotton is over 2 million tons, and the policy of purchasing and storage temporarily supports domestic cotton prices. However, it is difficult to support the downstream cotton yarn, cotton cloth and the terminal market. At present, cotton price is about 3000 yuan / ton higher than that of the outer cotton. Even considering the quota cost, the middle grade cotton still has a larger price advantage, the import of cotton yarn has increased, the export growth of textile and clothing has declined, and the relative advantage of the textile industry has been weakened.

industry chain

External

Trade

The pattern has begun to change.

Judging the trend of cotton price in the later stage, we should first pay attention to the adjustment of cotton policy.

The rhythm and quantity of the quotas issued by imported cotton decide the speed and rhythm of the cotton price difference between inside and outside.

The determination of cotton temporary purchase and storage price in 2012 will determine the cotton price level in the coming year.

It is estimated that cotton prices will continue to rise during the new year to the Spring Festival, but cotton prices should not be given high expectations.

Technically, cotton may be under great pressure near 23000 yuan / ton.