Foreign Economic And Trade Situation Analysis Meeting: 2012, The Global Economy Is Hard To Say.

What are the new trends of the global economy in 2012? Are the developed countries and regions represented by the United States and Europe still difficult to get out of the debt crisis? How should we look forward to the increasingly important role of China? What surprises and changes will Russia bring to the world economy just now as a member of the WTO?

The US economy will maintain a moderate recovery in 2012, but overall it is still in the doldrums, even facing downside risks.

Xiao Lian, a researcher at the American Academy of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at the analysis conference that the US GDP growth may be less than 2% in 2011, and the employment situation has improved, but it is still at its lowest level since the crisis.

Although the real estate market has recovered, it is very slow.

"It is obvious that the US economy will not break through in 2012, and its GDP growth will probably linger between 1.3% and 3.1%."

Xiao Lian said.

Xiao Lian believes that the issue of US Treasuries is restricting the development of the US economy.

When the United States raised its cap, buying 50 billion U.S. Treasury bonds was equivalent to a 0.5 percentage point cut in interest rates.

In fact, the US interest rate is -2.1%.

At the same time, the US quantitative easing monetary policy has reduced interest rates in disguise and will affect the development of China's foreign trade.

At present, China is the largest holder of US Treasury bonds.

"According to the statistics of the office of the United States Congress, at present, the United States has not yet repaid debts of up to 50 trillion dollars, while the US GDP is 15 trillion dollars, and the debt scale is more than 2 times that of GDP."

Xiao Lian believes that this will inevitably adversely affect China's economic development in 2012.

It is worth noting that if the European debt crisis, the dollar will be forced to appreciate, thereby reducing exports to Europe, the United States in Europe.

Ten years of major EU adjustment

The European debt crisis is not the "lost ten years" of the EU's destiny, but "ten years of major adjustment".

Xia Youfu, Dean of the Institute of open economics of the University of foreign trade and economics, believes that the European debt crisis is caused by three major causes. First, its economic and social development model is not sustainable.

The high welfare economic growth of residents has been declining, and the ability of innovation is also decreasing. Second, the expansion of political crisis.

Although the EU group has a unified monetary policy, there is no unified fiscal policy; third, the United States regards the euro as a strategic means, and the Greek debt crisis is closely linked to Goldman's false accounting.

At the same time, the European debt crisis is also related to the United States shifting the crisis to rob surplus capital.

"In the month of January 2011 ~11, the EU's investment in China increased by only 0.0%, and China's exports to the EU also declined sharply."

Turning to the EU strategy, Xia Youfu said that EU trade accounted for 20% of our import and export trade, showing the importance of the EU market.

Therefore, I suggest that we deepen our strategic cooperation to the EU and help to resolve the European debt crisis.

"Help to resolve rather than so-called" rescue ", because" rescue "is not the other party's wishes, we are not enough strength.

Xia Youfu said that the European Union is China's largest trading partner. Supporting the stability of the euro is of great benefit to our economic development.

First of all, we need to deepen investment in the EU. Second, we should increase cooperation in science and technology to avoid the protectionist barriers and increase cooperation with universities and research institutions in Europe. Third, we should increase our efforts to import the EU and deepen the green economic cooperation in an all-round way.

In addition, China and Europe can consider opening the negotiations on free trade agreements, increase the study of free trade agreements between China and Europe, and enhance the intensity of trade in commodities, trade in services, investment, including omni-directional financial cooperation.

New opportunities for Russia

After eighteen years of negotiations, Russia has been allowed to formally join the WTO.

Wang Junwen, President of the China International Trade Association, pointed out at the analysis meeting that this will have a significant impact on Sino Russian economic and trade cooperation.

In recent years, the Russian market is in the process of gradual opening up and pition.

Wang Junwen pointed out that more open Russia faces new opportunities.

It is reported that the APEC meeting in 2012 will be held in Russia.

At the same time, in the absence of rulemaking right at the beginning of WTO accession, speeding up the construction of Vladivostok free trade zone will be an important strategic objective of Russia.

Wang Junwen pointed out that "the opening up of the Russian economy depends on the development of the Siberia region, which is in line with the overall economic strategy of Russia."

"Before this, many Russian politicians and businessmen have expressed their views, hoping to build an open economic circle similar to the financial center of China's Hongkong region and China Suzhou Singapore Industrial Park."

Wang Junwen said many related agenda is being implemented.

At the same time, Russia has also expressed its desire to increase exports to China.

There are indications that Russia's general idea of opening up the market has been very clear.

For Russia, opening up means no way out.

Although cooperation with China is not the main business of Russia, it is an indisputable fact to strengthen economic cooperation with China.

As far as Siberia's regional resource development is concerned, Wang Junwen added that due to the unusually difficult conditions in the region, according to statistics, 500 thousand people leave Siberia every year, and if they want to retain their manpower, they must have material protection.

Therefore, facing a more open Russia, it will also have a new impact on Sino Russian bilateral economic and trade relations.

Wang Junwen emphasized.

It is urgent to change the way of China's foreign trade growth.

Under the pressure of tight external demand and rising internal comprehensive costs, it is urgent to change the topic of foreign trade growth.

At the 2012 China International Trade Association (China International Trade Association) analysis conference on the form of China's foreign trade and economic development, industry insiders pointed out that, in fact, Chinese enterprises have found and practiced the correct way of pformation in the process of coping with the financial crisis.

In judging the pformation of the law, many people in the industry and abroad have the misunderstanding of the understanding, simply the import growth rate is greater than export growth, labor intensive conversion to high precision technology exports as the so-called "pformation of growth mode".

As a matter of fact, the change of foreign trade growth mode also needs the internationalization of e-commerce platform, mature supply chain support, the birth of service manufacturing enterprises, and stable policies and regulations.

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Misunderstanding of "change"

Pei Changhong, director of the Economic Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out at the analysis meeting that since the Central Committee put forward the pformation of the mode of foreign trade growth, there are two kinds of misunderstandings in and outside the industry.

First of all, we believe that the growth rate of imports is greater than the growth rate of exports, that is, the pformation of development mode. We will pform the growth mode of foreign trade into a change in the growth rate of foreign trade.

But facts show that the acceleration of import growth in recent two years is closely related to the price rise of imported goods.

About 35% of our import structure is resource related products. After the international financial crisis, resource products increased substantially.

The second misunderstanding is that changing the way of foreign trade development is to pform labour intensive exports into high-technology products exports.

Pei Changhong said that facts show that China has a vast territory, and there are great differences in the factor endowments of economic development. Industrial pformation can not be achieved through one mode or one path.

In changing the way of foreign trade development, China's foreign trade enterprises are also facing severe internal and external situations.

According to Wang Shouwen, director of the foreign trade division of the Ministry of Commerce, on the outside side, the demand for international market in 2012 is tight and the risk is magnified.

Relevant data show that in October 2011 and November, the export orders index of Chinese enterprises was less than 50, which contrasted sharply with the situation in 2010. Orders were sharply reduced, and enterprises faced greater difficulties.

The demand risk in the international market is also increasing. The insurance reporting rate of China's export credit insurance companies increased by more than 70% in 2011 compared with the same period last year.

At the same time, domestic comprehensive export costs are rising.

Wang Shouwen said that compared with the data in November and November 2008 2011, the price of industrial land rose by 7%, labor costs and wage costs rose by 26.4%, and the cost of capital rose by 1.5%.

According to the CRB Commodity Research Institute of the UK, the cost of raw materials has increased by 64%, and the RMB exchange rate has risen by 8%.

"This means that the modernization of our country has entered a new stage."

Wang Shouwen emphasized.

How to change the way of foreign trade

In fact, from the processing of raw materials to processing, the growth mode of China's foreign trade has changed quietly.

Pei Changhong believes that materials processing equipment accounted for 28.6% of the total processing trade in 2001, and it dropped to 15% in 2010, down to 13.3% in the 7 months before 2011.

Through the pformation from ODM to OEM, in practice, China has found the correct way to pform and upgrade processing trade.

To further pform the growth mode of foreign trade, Pei Changhong believes that the following four aspects need to be done:

One of the ways is to upgrade technology through production automation. Second, we can realize the pformation of enterprises through professional division of labor and production outsourcing, and service manufacturing enterprises emerge as the times require.

This kind of enterprise can be either technological or brand oriented, and marketing. Third, building a new platform for international business, and developing Yiwu's internal and external trade with e-commerce platform is a typical example.

Fourth, we should guide more circulation trading enterprises to implement supply chain management.

If the business matching the import and export business is all wrapped up by itself, the cost is huge. Therefore, a service-oriented enterprise is required to solve the problems of logistics, customs declaration, investment, documents and so on.

On the issue of how to change the mode of foreign trade growth, Wang Shouwen, director of the foreign trade division of the Ministry of Commerce, also pointed out that under the premise that the external demand environment is not very optimistic, our country should strive to cultivate new advantages in foreign trade.

First, it is essential for Chinese enterprises to strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights.

Many enterprises are quickly copying the products that are designed to be sold by huge sums of money. In the increasingly fierce competition, Chinese enterprises must take into account the protection of intellectual property rights when establishing brands.

Government departments should also increase protection; second, reduce burdens for enterprises.

Wang Shouwen pointed out that the materials submitted by Guangdong province show that foreign trade enterprises are facing 161 kinds of charging items. Under the circumstances that wages, exchange rates and land costs are hard to avoid, it is very necessary for enterprises to reduce their burdens. Third, ensure that relevant policies are stable. "We can not regard export tax rebates as a means of regulating foreign trade by policies, and export tax rebates should adhere to the principle of neutrality, where taxes are compulsory.

The tax rate raised by departments is not conducive to the development of foreign trade. "

Wang Shouwen emphasized.

Economic globalization, interest pattern, adjustment period

After the financial crisis, the global economy is still in the wind and rain.

Against this background, the structure of global economic governance has changed quietly.

Especially in the frequent occurrence of trade protectionism, some analysts are doubtful whether economic globalization will enter the ebb tide.

Zhang Xiangchen, director of the Policy Research Office of the Ministry of Commerce of China, indicated at the analysis conference that in fact, the process and basic trend of globalization had not changed, but the process of trade liberalization in the world has been slowed down or even stagnated.

The deadlock in the Doha talks is a typical example.

At the same time, the interest pattern of economic globalization is in the process of readjustment.

The liberalization process has slowed down for two reasons.

Zhang Xiangchen said that the main body of promoting economic globalization is pnational corporations, which control 50% of World Trade and 90% of investment.

In the global production chain, multinationals have basically completed the layout of their global production. In the traditional sense, tariff reductions are of little significance to multinational corporations. Secondly, the promotion of Global trade liberalization and investment liberalization is a new round of technological revolution.

At present, new energy and new materials are in the stage of brewing and development, and no climate has been formed. They can not duplicate the fundamental role of IT industry in promoting globalization.

It is worth noting that the interest pattern of economic globalization is in the process of adjustment.

Developing countries, including China, will not always be at the bottom of the value chain.

Zhang Xiangchen said that under such a background, the global economic governance structure will also undergo new changes.

In the face of globalization, the United States adopted a trend of overall contraction and partial attack.

In the mechanisms related to global governance, such as WTO, the International Monetary Fund and the world bank, the United States has shown its weakness, not only unwilling to fulfill its responsibilities, but also the responsibility of developing countries such as China.

In the group of G20, the United States has adopted a strategy of keeping its strength in order to maintain its position.

But in the APEC and Pan Pacific strategic partnership mechanism, in order to gain Asian dominance and promote its own export strategy, the US adopted an offensive strategy.

For the United States, the development of emerging economies has already formed a scale, but it has not yet formed enough strength.

Zhang Xiangchen said, especially in the emerging economies, there are many differences among BRICs, and it is difficult to form the power to compete with the United States in global economic governance.

For China, we should take an active part in the global economy and safeguard the interests of the whole world.

In the face of the pressure of "China responsibility" imposed by western countries such as the United States, we can adopt the attitude of shelving disputes and seek a balance in the multilateral region.