China'S Shoemaking Industry Labor Advantage Gradually Lost &Nbsp, Suffering From "Hollow" Disease.

In the past year, China's manufacturing industry has come to a good start.

As many people expected, in early 2011, it won the "2010 China manufacturing output value surpass the United States" and China's manufacturing industry "ranking first in the world" reputation, but at the same time, China's manufacturing industry is not only external to the United States and Europe.

Warning one

Loss of price advantage

For China's manufacturing industry, there was news in 2011: the US manufacturing industry was backstreaming.

In the eyes of analysts, this means that the status of Chinese factories in the world is under no small impact.

Taking the traditional textile industry as an example, the export situation of clothing is still grim.

According to the latest customs data, November 2011, Chinese textiles

"Compared to 2010, the prices of raw materials such as cotton and other raw materials in textile industry did not show prominence in 2011, but the market in 2011 was not as good as that in 2010.

In 2011, many of the smaller peers had already gone ahead of the 'holiday' and wanted to wait until the market was better.

Jing Dekui, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Lingda Industrial Co., Ltd., said in an interview with reporters.

For the reason of "early leave", Jing Dekui explained that for the export enterprises, under the influence of comprehensive factors such as RMB appreciation, the price advantage of the original products gradually lost, and orders were pferred in large quantities.

"Under such circumstances, enterprises are very contradictory.

On the one hand, in order to keep orders, we can not raise prices; on the other hand, in recent years, rising wage costs and so on have made a loss for the originally profitable companies. "

In the case of Jiangsu's small business advocates, the appreciation of the renminbi has always been unavoidable, especially in the past two years, almost depriving the company of all profits.

Mr. Zhang mainly produces leather shoes and has regular European and American customers every year.

However, since the 90s of last century, his company has been winning the market in quantity rather than quality. It is a typical "big and scattered" enterprise.

"In the past few years, we could still maintain 1 cents per cent, or even more than 1 cents, but in 2011, we felt the chill obviously."

He told reporters reluctantly, "in many cases, our profits can only be calculated in terms of quantity, and sometimes we have to delay wages."

Prior to that, Jin Weiliang, deputy director of the Shaoxing Bureau of foreign trade and economic cooperation, said in an interview with reporters that most of the 70% of the textile enterprises in Shaoxing were exported. If the RMB exchange rate rose by 1%, Shaoxing's exports would be 30 million yuan to 40 million yuan.

Data show that in 2011, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar increased by more than 5.10% throughout the year.

According to the rough statistics, the cumulative appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 30% since the first exchange rate reform in 2005.

In addition to the US dollar, the appreciation trend of RMB against the euro and yen began to become more apparent since April 2011.

The head office of the Bank of China pointed out that as the renminbi is expected to appreciate slightly against the US dollar, the renminbi will appreciate again against the euro dollar and the Australian dollar.

According to research reports, Europe, the United States and Japan are China's top three trading partners in recent years.

The simultaneous appreciation of the RMB against these three currencies is a great blow to domestic manufacturing industry.

Caution two

Comprehensive cost rise

In addition to the appreciation of the renminbi, for enterprises, the rising cost is another factor that causes the price of products to rise.

As we all know, in the past few decades, cheap labor is a key factor in supporting China's growth and development.

But now this factor is being forced to manufacture in China - the labor cost of Vietnam, Kampuchea and Malaysia is becoming more and more prominent, while some manufacturing enterprises in the United States have also returned. At the same time, the rising price of raw materials is another pressure for Chinese enterprises.

Earlier in 2011, reporters had investigated that the shortage of labor is becoming more and more obvious.

For example, in recent two years, after the new year's day and the Spring Festival holiday, the phenomenon of migrant workers returning home is not widespread.

At the same time, the voices of workers demanding higher wages are higher and higher.

In order to stabilize production, enterprises generally try to meet the requirements of workers. However, the labor costs of enterprises have risen sharply, and the comprehensive cost of raw materials and energy has been increasing. The burden of enterprises has become heavier and heavier, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Statistics show that small and medium-sized enterprises are more concentrated in leather shoes, clothing, glasses and other labor-intensive industries, and are very sensitive to cost fluctuations.

According to a large number of field investigations and studies, Gu Shengzu, member of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, concluded that at present, 10% of SMEs are upgrading, 20% are in pition, and 60% to 70% are facing serious difficulties in survival.

Jing Dekui also told reporters that in recent years, as prices rise, the wages of employees are rising.

"If you don't get paid, you can't find workers.

The situation in 2011 is relatively stable, but our wage rise is also around 15% this year.

In view of this situation, the industry believes that China's "Lewis turning point" (that is, the turning point of excess labor force to shortage) has emerged, and the "demographic dividend" will also disappear.

The so-called "demographic dividend" refers to the large proportion of the working population of a country in the total population, and the low dependency rate, which has created favorable demographic conditions for economic development, and the whole country's economy has become a situation of high savings, high investment and high growth.

Generally speaking, there is a negative correlation between "Lewis turning point" and "demographic dividend". The appearance of the former is often a precursor of the latter's gradual disappearance.

Some experts pointed out that "labor shortage" is becoming a common phenomenon in the mainland. The traditional labor intensive industries will accelerate the loss of advantage.

"The importance of labor force for manufacturing in China is well known. Once this role problem arises, the impact on the entire Chinese economy will be enormous.

However, demographic dividend is a double-edged sword. When a country relies too much on the advantages of cheap labor, it will lose the power of innovation over time.

And when dividends are no longer there, they will face unsustainable development.

Song Songxing, Professor of Business School of Nanjing University, said, but from the perspective of development law, "Lewis inflection point" and "demographic dividend" are not allowed to continue indefinitely. This kind of "forced" is also a historical necessity.

How to cross the ridge will be a long-term challenge for China's economy and China's manufacturing industry.

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Caution three

Trade war has become normal.

In 2011, the hottest event in the global financial market was the European debt crisis and the US debt crisis, which had not yet been resolved.

In fact, this not only caused turbulence in the financial market, but also infringed on the real industry.

Take the Chinese manufacturing industry as a result of the double blow of the "shrinking demand" of European and American enterprises and the "trade war" launched by some countries through the debt crisis.

Recently, China's photovoltaic industry, which is deeply depressed by the market downturn and the double anti gloom of the United States, is one of the representatives.

China's photovoltaic industry is a typical export oriented enterprise. Almost 90% of its products are exported overseas.

2010 is the golden period for the development of photovoltaic industry. The market growth rate is as high as 153%. But in 2011, especially in the second half of this year, the PV industry is changing rapidly.

Affected by the European debt crisis, European countries have reduced their PV subsidies since 2011, and the demand for the European market which originally occupied more than 70% of PV installed in the world has dropped sharply.

The sharp decline in demand has led to a sharp decline in the prices of photovoltaic products.

Since the beginning of 2011, polycrystalline silicon, silicon chips, components and batteries have fallen by about 45%, 52%, 53% and 42% respectively.

Such a sharp market turmoil makes Chinese PV enterprises unanticipated.

Many small and medium photovoltaic enterprises are forced to stop production, and some large enterprises are also generally losing money.

In 2011, the number of listed PV enterprises with three quarterly results declined by more than 70%.

Qu Xiaohua, chairman of atlas sunshine Power Technology Co., Ltd., in an interview with reporters, lamented many times that such adjustment exceeded the expectations of the industry.

"The debt crisis in Europe and America, the earthquake in Japan, and the dispute over the homes of American debt are all unexpected.

Under such circumstances, no company can be left alone.

This downturn in the market has not only happened in the Chinese market, but also many American businesses have gone bankrupt, including Obama's new energy companies.

This directly led to the US's lifting of the trade protection rod for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises.

At present, the US Department of commerce is conducting double anti investigation on China's photovoltaic products.

A few days ago, the Ministry of Commerce of India also issued a warning that China could conduct double anti investigations on photovoltaic products in the near future.

"The European and American countries in crisis are increasingly aware of the importance of the real economy and continue to support the re emergence of the local manufacturing industry.

Therefore, in order to protect the development of local enterprises, a trade war may be a norm.

This is not only for photovoltaic enterprises, the entire Chinese manufacturing industry should be vigilant.

On the one hand, we must strengthen the development of the domestic market, and on the other hand we need to master the core technology and the right to speak.

Lin Baiqiang, director of China Energy Research Center, Xiamen University, said.

In the view of analysts, the phenomenon similar to photovoltaic industry is caused by blind development and overcapacity.

In the case of reduced demand from abroad, overcapacity has made the situation of supply exceeding demand even more apparent.

"Due to the stability of" external demand ", China's desire for capacity expansion is very strong.

But the result of the expansion competition is that China's large number of enterprises have been living in low profit for a long time. At present, there are varying degrees of overcapacity in all walks of life.

Caution four

Suffer from "hollow" disease

In 2002, economist Fang Gang, who was known as "never dying," warned that some local government leaders are going farther and farther along the direction of "leaving the manufacturing industry" in decision-making capital investment, and may eventually get bogged down in Industrial Hollowing.

In the process of economic development, in the process of economic development, with the increase of national income level, the labor force is pferred from the primary industry to the second industry and the third industry in turn. The history of industrialization in developed countries shows that the internal structure of industry will also be dominated by heavy chemical industry and then pferred to highly processed industry and developed to the stage of technology intensive.

In this process, if the old and new industries are not well connected, the economy will easily be infected at the stage of "leaving the manufacturing industry" and eventually suffer from "industrial hollowing out".

In a common saying, it means that the old industry is declining. In order to survive, it will shift to a backward country. But the new industry has not yet been fully developed and can not make up for the gap that has been pferred.

The old has gone and the new has not come, so the proportion of industry's income and employment in the national economy has been declining, forming a situation of "external reality and virtual" and shrinking.

Fang Gang said that the hollowing out of industry is a gradual process.

"Leaving manufacturing" is the harbinger of the worst outcome of Industrial Hollowing.

At that time, "made in China" just like zhongzhongtian, Fang Gang's speech was hard to understand.

But now this prediction seems to be coming true.

A recent example is the "debt crisis" of a large number of enterprises in Wenzhou.

Analysts believe that the reason for Wenzhou's "hollowing out" trend is mainly compared to the hardships of doing business and products, and enterprises are eager for real estate and loan sharks. Over time, they have formed a "herd effect".

It is understood that behind the "debt crisis" in Wenzhou is the shutting down and relocation of enterprises. Some traditional industries have obviously shrunk. For example, the Wenzhou metal lighter industry, which once occupied 90% of the country's output, has shrunk by 80%.

Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou SME Development Association, admitted to reporters that many of the owners of small and medium enterprises are not doing business by borrowing and lending. They are mainly investing in real estate, coal mines, and even some entrepreneurs directly support their credit businesses.

Song Songxing believes that the debt crisis in Europe and the United States has warned us that both the government and the business community must have adequate risk awareness and early warning mechanism. The most urgent task is to sort out and remove the institutional obstacles to "made in China", reform and regulate the profit margins of "squeezing" speculative capital in the real estate sector, and prevent productive capital from "pulling away" the real economy.

Cui Xinsheng, chief research fellow of China's value index, believes that even some manufacturing enterprises have "hollowing out" phenomenon. This hollow mainly refers to the lack of technical content and core competitiveness.