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2012 Spring Festival Clothing Retail Sales Increased By 18.7% Over The Same Period Last Year

2012/1/31 13:50:00 13

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2012 Spring Festival Clothing Sales Volume Year-On-Year

Weekly market review and views

This week, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen stock index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 3.32%, 4.82% and 5.37% respectively.

Everbright textile and garment sector rose 0.53%, of which the textile sector rose 2.39% and the clothing sector fell 0.77%.

Although the plate has rebounded, it is obviously weaker than the general market level. On the one hand, the cyclical stocks have a deeper decline in the earlier stage. On the other hand, the height inventory and the advance price increase in the industry are too high.

market

Doubts about the achievement of the 12 year's performance.

In December 2011, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 26.7% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 4.2 percentage points higher than that of last month. According to the Ministry of commerce data, the retail sales of clothing increased by 18.7% during the Spring Festival (New Year's Eve to the sixth day of 2012).

In December 2011, the marked increase in the growth of retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles accords with our previous judgement. Holiday effect and demand supplement are the main thrust.

We are cautious about the clothing sales figures released by the Ministry of Commerce during the Spring Festival.

optimistic

Considering the short distance between the new year's day and the Spring Festival in 12 years, the residents have the situation of early consumption. During the Spring Festival, the retail sales volume increased to 18.7%, indicating that the domestic demand remained. However, compared with the data released by the Ministry of Commerce over the past 11 years (11 years, the Ministry of commerce did not disclose the retail sales of clothing alone, we achieved 11 sales growth over the past 11 years.

Law

As we can deduce, we can see that during the Spring Festival, the growth rate of garment retail has slowed down, and the actual consumption intention of residents has dropped slightly.

Therefore, we will continue to be cautious in the short term.

In the long run, it benefited from the promotion of urbanization rate, the upgrading of residents' consumption and the policy support of the 12th Five-Year plan for brand clothing (clearly pointed out that at the end of 12th Five-Year), there were 5~10 brands with international influence, 100 well-known brands with high awareness of the domestic market, 50 brand enterprises with annual sales revenue of over 10 billion, and the proportion of brand products exported to 25%. We still optimistic about the long-term investment value of brand clothing and home textiles.

Industry news trends:

(1) in 2011, the increase of labor cost in China's textile industry was outstanding, which increased by more than 15% over the same period last year. (2) the textile industry "12th Five-Year" development plan: clearly defined the "12th Five-Year" development goals; (3) Li Feng sold clothing retail business to major shareholders, initially involved 139 million; (4) H&M led, fast fashion brand accelerated to occupy China's retail space; (6) Lining got 750 million strategic investment funds, TPG and other wind input stocks.

Trends in Listed Companies:

(1) Pathfinder, seven wolves, shares of Weixing, Chinese clothing: announcements of performance express; (2) American state clothing: equity pledge announcement; (3) HAZZYS, flange Salton brand agency business; (4) cashmere industry: entry and exit inspection and quarantine credit management AA enterprises.

Summary of industry data:

Raw materials: grade 328 cotton spot: 19288 yuan / ton (0.22%); American cotton Cotlook A:102.25 cents / pound (1.04%); viscose staple fiber: 16700 yuan / ton (0.91%); polyester staple fiber: 12033 yuan / ton (0.70%).