Behind The Prosperity Of Garment Enterprises Is The Overdraft Market.

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The listed companies in the three quarter of last year echoed with each other: the stock of the United States stock was 2 billion 980 million yuan, accounting for 83% of the net assets; Semir's clothing inventory was 1 billion 420 million yuan, accounting for 19% of the net assets; the seven wolves inventory was 700 million, accounting for 37% of net assets; Kaiser stock was 280 million, accounting for 29% of net assets.

Golden securities learned that even in

The prosperity of virtual high clothing prices

In 2011, A share clothing enterprises still maintained a strong growth momentum.

The three quarter results showed that the growth rate of outdoor activities and fashion and leisure Brand Company revenue reached 52.01% and 40.75% respectively.

Many people in the industry expect that, with the arrival of the peak season of clothing sales in the fourth quarter of the year, the industry will be

However, "gold securities" was informed that at the end of December last year, at the institutional exchange meeting organized by Galaxy Securities, the inventory figures reported by the executives of garment enterprises were still hard to please.

"The current inventory is 28-29 billion. If the sale is good in the next few days, it is estimated that it will be reduced to 2 billion 500 million."

Semir said, "including new products, agents on the stock of almost more than 10 billion."

This situation has not improved much compared with the end of the three quarter, indicating that in the four most prosperous quarter, the high inventory of garment enterprises has not been rapidly digested.

Semir and seven wolves executives blamed this on the weather. "Winter has not turned cold, and the Spring Festival is ahead of schedule."

A set of data released by the National Bureau of statistics has broken the cause of "net profit and inventory" in garment enterprises.

In the 1-10 months of 2011, the retail sales of clothing increased by 24.5% over the same period last year, down 1.31 percentage points from the same period in 2010, and the volume of retail sales increased by 4.17% over the same period last year, down 8.16 percentage points from the same period last year.

It is worth noting that the unit price of clothing sales has increased by 19.52% over the same period.

It is not hard to see that the high growth of the performance of garment enterprises is largely based on the price increase, rather than the high sales volume.

Overdraft market is forced to "move bricks"

There is a saying in the clothing industry that if a piece of goods has not been sold for 30 days, it will probably become a dead product. This is called "brick".

In 2011, why did the "brick" in the garment enterprises proliferate? In the exchange, the top US state company revealed that "in autumn and winter in 2010, it will meet with the order of spring and summer in 2011. The order will be very good, and a lot of goods will be prepared, mainly due to the fact that the sales growth is getting better and better."

Semir said, "the growth space of Chinese casual wear has made foreign capital and domestic brands enter.

Although the total volume of the market has not dropped, the number of operators has increased and some customers have been diverted. "

The seven wolves responsible person said, "seven wolves from 400 stores to 4000 stores, six years, and sporting goods from 2000 stores to 7000 stores, only two years.

Too short a time to gather so many terminal and shop resources, it takes time to digest. "

How to "move bricks" has become a top priority for garment enterprises.

"The first half of this year will increase the inventory digestion, not simply discount, but pay attention to the integration with new products," the US State Association told institutional investors.

By the middle of 2012, the inventory size is estimated to be less than $2 billion.

Trapped in a strange circle and losing profits

However, this side is busy going to stock, and the new season order of the garment enterprises over there will still be noisy, and the price will rise again.

Seven wolves executives do not shy away from saying, "this year's 3 and April 2012 autumn and winter product orders will grow by 30%.

The unit price of the product is more than 1000 yuan, while the price of domestic Victor and card slave road is 4000 yuan, so there is still room for improvement.

Semir executives also revealed that "last year's price increase was almost 10%, and the price will increase by 8%-10% this year."

In this regard, Zhang Xianping, a researcher at Donghai securities, can not help but pour cold water on it. "Consumers do not recognize the connotation value of the domestic clothing brand, and are unwilling to pay too high a premium for the brand.

The clothing price index is directly proportional to CPI, and CPI declined in 2012. Clothing brands did not have sufficient reasons to raise prices substantially.

We are worried that optimism in the business sector may be cold shouldered in the consumer market. Too much inventory will lead to a more difficult inventory digestion. "

Cheng Yuan, a joint researcher at Huatai, is not optimistic. "Orders will be generally high in early summer 2012, and the inventory of franchisees will increase further in the coming half year. The higher operational risk will enlarge the impact of terminal consumption decline in the future."

Clothing companies are aware of these judgments.

"Securities" understands that in the exchange with the organization, the US side acknowledges that "in the first half of this year, the efforts to digest inventory will be relatively large, and profits will be made concession and sacrifice.

In the next few years, the growth rate of performance may no longer be high, and revenue and profit growth will fall to 20%-30% level.

Semir said, "in the first half of this year, a large number of fund-raising funds to decorate and buy shops, profit growth will be lower than the growth rate of income, the second half of the year is likely to be better than the first half."