Cotton Temporary Purchase And Storage System In 2012

　　 Cotton Industry Association Today, the relevant state departments issued the "2012 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan" to determine the 2012 year. cotton The price of temporary storage and purchase was 20400 yuan / ton, which increased by 600 yuan / ton compared with 2011 yuan in the year of 2011 and increased by 3%. At the same time, the implementation scope of the storage and the requirements of cotton grade can be adjusted by the relevant departments in special circumstances.

　 Commentary:

The introduction of the purchase and storage system helps to clarify the bottom of cotton prices and prevent cotton prices from plummeting: we always believe that the three key factors affecting cotton prices are capital, supply and demand and policies.

Demand recovery in 2009, supply and demand is the most critical factor affecting the cotton price in that year; in 2010, capital was the most critical factor affecting the soaring cotton prices in that year; the supply of cotton increased sharply in 2011, which made the supply of cotton market oversupply, and supply and demand was the most critical factor affecting cotton prices in 2011. Entering the 2012, we believe that the shortage of demand has become the most critical factor affecting the cotton price this year, which has suppressed the rise in cotton prices. The national policy is the core factor to keep cotton prices in place. Today's system of purchasing and storage is clear, which helps to clarify the bottom of cotton prices for 12 years, prevent cotton prices from falling sharply, and enhance cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton growing. The new purchasing and storage prices reflect the current market downturn, which is lower than market expectations. Due to the slow recovery and insufficient demand at home and abroad, since the implementation of the 11 year in September, the state has completed the purchase and storage of 2 million 690 thousand tons in 11 years, which is the key factor for stabilizing cotton prices at more than 19000 yuan. Entering the 2012, domestic and international demand is still hovering at the bottom. Domestic cotton price is higher than foreign cotton price more than 2000 yuan, seriously affecting the cotton spinning industry chain enterprise operation, the actual cotton price has a larger downward pressure, but considering the serious consequences of the cotton price rise and fall, and in order to protect cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting, guarantee the supply of cotton strategic material, the state has considered the price of 20400 yuan, including the price comparison with other cash crops. We think that the price is reasonable, and it will not cause a serious blow to the cotton spinning industry chain. Before the market, we expect more than 21000 yuan. We think that the excessive purchase and storage price will seriously affect the operation of cotton spinning enterprises, and the consequences of the collapse of cotton prices are not much different.

The introduction of the plan helps to keep prices of textile raw materials relatively stable: before and after the Spring Festival, with the support of recovery expectations, the price of textile raw materials has risen sharply, supported by the rumor that cotton prices are likely to rise sharply, but due to lower demand than expected, viscose staple fibers began to lower prices last week. Today's cotton purchase and storage price dispute has come to an end. The price of raw materials is expected to remain stable in the future, and the slight decline may not be ruled out in the short term.

　 　 Investment proposal

We have always thought that before the arrival of the traditional peak season is the time window for the intervention of chemical fiber stocks. However, the recent recall and storage system of viscose prices has shown that raw material prices are difficult to rise in the first half of this year, which will restrict the performance of viscose and spandex plates. Their next price rise time window is August, and there is an opportunity for intervention in 6-7 months.

We are still optimistic about Taihe new material. Although the proportion of spandex business is still very large, we are optimistic about the aramid business. Aramid fiber as high performance fiber has been growing rapidly. The price fluctuation is mainly related to the global industrial economy, and has no correlation with the price of viscose and urethane fiber.