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European And American Stock Markets Fell Sharply By &Nbsp; And A Shares Affected Geometry?

2012/3/7 8:25:00 9

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European and American stock markets fell sharply, New York's stock market hit the biggest one-day drop this year; London stock market index fell 6 on the 1.86% day; in addition, the international oil price fell sharply on the 6 day, and the international gold price also dropped to 6 weeks low.

Investors know that the A share market is usually influenced by the trend of the peripheral market, especially the US stock market.

At present, China is gradually opening up the financial and capital markets, making A shares more closely linked with overseas markets.

As for the impact of US stocks on A shares, the author has chosen from 2000 to date.

Dow Jones index

With the Shanghai Composite Index's 2742 trading date data, the correlation coefficient between the two closing prices is about 0.6, which has a positive relationship.

The Grainger test found that the Shanghai composite index yield was affected by the Dow Jones yield, while the Shanghai stock index yield change was not the reason for the change in the Dow Jones yield.

It is verified that A shares will be affected by the US stock market.

However, the author also found that the confidence coefficient of the Grainger's reason for the Dow Jones index's intraday rate of return is a slight decrease.

This may mean that the impact of overnight US stock changes on the Shanghai Composite Index will often be reflected in the opening price of A shares.

Therefore, overall, the overnight US stocks' impact on the Shanghai Composite Index's daily yield is more obvious, but it has a weak impact on the Shanghai Composite Index's intraday trend.

Statistics

US stock

In the case of a daily drop of more than 4%, it was found that the Dow Jones index fell more than 4% from 2005 to date, 19 times, including 12 times in 2008, 4 times in 2009, August 4, 2011, 8 and 10 days.

From the next day, the A share market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 16 times the next day, rose 3 times, the short-term stock market crash has an impact on the trend of A shares.

But from the perspective of Japan, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 15 times a day, an average increase of 1.63% over the opening price, a 4 decline and an average decrease of 0.93%, indicating that the A shares were significantly lower in the next day after the US stock market plummeted, but most of the time they showed a low trend.

Therefore, in the event of a sharp fall in US stocks, it is not appropriate for investors to invest in futures.

In addition, after Johansen cointegration test, the author finds that there is no cointegration relationship between Shanghai Composite Index and Dow Jones index.

This shows that although the US stock market has a short-term impact on the A share market, the trend is different in the medium and long term.

More intuitive is that last year, US stocks rose, while A shares were oscillating.

The trend of the Dow has recently formed its top form, which is technically the end of the index "double market".

As far as fundamentals are concerned, China and the United States are now in different economic cycles. At present, the US economy is slowing down and inflation data are rising, and the stagnation stage is beginning to take place. In the context of continuous tightening of money and import inflation pressure, inflation in China is falling behind the same period.

The 2400 sides of the army are facing the Shanghai stock index.

Investment in Tai Mo

Yesterday, when the market fell below the 10 day moving average, the stock index formed a small "double headed" form. If today's stock index can return to the neck line for more than 2418 points, there will still be opportunities in the market.

It is suggested that investors should reduce some of the less performing stocks on the high side, and protect profits for short-term profit margins. Investors with lighter positions can also pay attention to subjects such as electronic information, cultural media, energy saving and environmental protection, as well as band operation opportunities of second tier blue chips.

Consulting: as early as last week, we made it clear that if the Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 2478 points on Monday, it would build a double head.

Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a minimum of 2406 points, close to 2400 points, to 2410 points, down 34.56 points, the number of households rose 199, fell home 723, in a weak pattern, and the MACD turned head down will form a dead fork.

It is expected that the declines will slow down today, and the probability of taking the crosses after the low opening will be greater, and there will be a rebound in the intraday.

Investors should seize the opportunity to get rid of the falling stocks as soon as possible and keep the cash waiting opportunities.

Gold card Consultant: from the 60 minute running track of the big market, it can be clearly found that the market has already begun to show the shape of the small head, and the adjustment trend has fallen through the neckline position, and the stock index seems to have further adjusted risks.

But even in the short-term market, even if the stock index is double headed, it is difficult for the stock index to drop sharply in the short term.

There will be very limited space for the adjustment of the market. It is suggested that investors continue to focus on the theme of the two sessions, such as medical, water conservancy and agriculture to protect people's livelihood, strengthen defense related military technology, and develop technology related concepts.