There Are Four Uncertainties In The Current Cotton Market.

One thing to be sure is whether the Chinese government's unlimited purchasing and storage policy, the India government's export ban to raise the international quotation of India cotton, or the macroeconomic regulation and control make the high inflation level continue to maintain. At the bottom of the cotton price support, it is hard for cotton to return to the low price level in the past.

Judging from the supply and demand situation this year, the supply pressure is not decreasing, consumption continues to be weak, and the restricting factors of cotton price rising are very obvious.

USDA's March forecast showed that global end inventories increased by 31.9% to 13 million 569 thousand tons, while inventory consumption rose to 57.3% from 41.3% in the previous year, the highest in nearly ten years.

While China's cotton market is declining in terms of consumption, output and imports have increased, resulting in a 73.1% increase in final inventory, reaching 4 million 372 thousand tons and an increase in inventory consumption ratio from 25.2% to 46.2%.

According to the survey of the central storage cotton company, in March, the national cotton industry inventory was about 1 million 23 thousand tons, an increase of 6.4%, an increase of 17.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 7.3% over the average in the past three years.

Although the yarn and cloth production rate of textile enterprises has rebounded slightly, it is still at a low level for nearly three years, and inventory backlog is obvious.

The current state of loose supply and sluggish consumption determines that cotton prices are still in a weak position, and the band investment ideas are empty.

In practical operation, we also need to be vigilant against possible risk factors in the future.

First, China in 2011.

Second, in March 30th, the end of the purchase and storage period was 5 months from the date of the new year in September 1st. This period is the time window for the issuance of import quotas, and the circulation of imported cotton and domestic cotton may promote the convergence of internal and external spreads.

If the consumption season does not start as usual, it will not rule out the possibility of falling domestic cotton prices.

At that time, for cotton on the market, the price of 19800 yuan / ton will be invalid, and the price of 20400 yuan / ton will only be effective for new cotton next year.

In third, 4 and May, the cotton sowing period and the subsequent seedling growth period were confronted with unknown weather conditions.

The distribution of cotton fields at home and abroad is wide and scattered. The occurrence of local disasters may be very large. The area and degree of disaster need to be traced and measured.

Fourth, the international cotton market in recent years