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China'S Macroeconomic Trends And Policy Prospects In 2012

2012/3/15 17:18:00 19

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In 2012,

China's economy

The development of internal and external environment tends to be complex and uncertain factors increase.

From the spirit of the central economic work conference and the "steady progress" and properly handling the relationship between the three party relations of speed, structure and price, China's economic development in 2012 will show a good pattern of moderate economic growth, stable general price level and positive progress in economic restructuring.

First, moderate economic growth.

Export growth is expected to be around 10%, and fixed asset investment growth is expected to reach around 20%.

Affected by short-term and long-term factors, China's economic growth will slow down in 2012, and the global economic growth is expected to reach about 8.5% without the outbreak of the global financial crisis.

Two is the economy.

Structural adjustment

Positive progress is expected.

The proportion of trade surplus to GDP will be further reduced to below 2%.

It is estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by about 17%, and its actual growth is slightly higher than that of 2011.

The central and western regions will maintain a relatively fast growth rate, and the growth rate of farmers' income is expected to continue to be higher than that of urban residents, which will help to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas.

Three, the general price level is basically stable.

The economic growth rate is stable and the demand pressure of price rise will be reduced.

The growth rate of M2 and M1 has kept falling, and the monetary conditions for controlling prices have been improving.

Food prices rose steadily.

Commodity prices have dropped somewhat due to the weakening of stimulus policies, deterioration of the European debt crisis and weak reform of major economies.

Kanoue O factor, CPI growth is expected to fall below 4%, inflation pressure will be significantly reduced in the short term.

The medium and long term factors of price rise have not been fundamentally eliminated, and anti inflation is still long-term.

2012, continue to implement

Positive finance

At the same time of policy and prudent monetary policy, we should pay more attention to the forward-looking and medium-term effects of macro policies. We should make decisions based on the conditions and make efforts to resolve various risks.

We should accelerate the improvement of the micro mechanism of monetary policy, pay more attention to the use of price instruments, give full play to the advantages of fiscal policy in structural adjustment, and actively promote structural tax reduction.

Policy oriented, while restraining asset bubbles, efforts should be made to support the development of the real economy; while deepening the reform of monopoly industries, efforts should be made to improve the environment for the survival and development of SMEs; in the process of readjustment and optimization of structure, efforts should be made to promote various types of innovative activities; in the process of promoting internal and external balance, efforts should be made to utilize external resources to enhance the long-term competitiveness of China's industries, and the focus of economic work should be shifted to structural adjustment, reform and pformation, and to move steadily towards the "12th Five-Year" target.