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Liquidity Drive Remains &Nbsp; A Share Market Will Continue.

2012/3/20 9:23:00 18

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On Monday, the A share market was strong, with the Shanghai Stock Index closing at 2400 points and recovering the 5 day moving average.

Obvious on the disk.

28 pattern

The small and medium capitalization stocks represented by Turisthotellet, medicine, biology, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery were very active. 23 non ST stocks in two cities were reported to have closed down, while banks, real estate and other large blue chip sectors were in a doldrums.

The total turnover of the two cities was 196 billion 300 million yuan, which was basically the same as last Friday.

Recently, the market has become more and more serious.

Especially on Wednesday, Shanghai received a heavy volume of heavy rain, and the market panic was on the rise.

We believe that the market uncertainty has increased in the short term, but there has been no significant change in the capital market factors, so the capital driven structural market is expected to continue.

Mobility is still driving.

Looking back at the rebound since the beginning of the year,

Liquidity driven

Occupy the main factor.

First, at the end of last year, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio and issued a clear signal of policy fine-tuning.

With the gradual decline of domestic inflation level, the policy fine-tuning space has been opened. In February this year, the central bank again lowered the deposit reserve ratio. On the one hand, it injected liquidity into the market. On the other hand, it also made the market's expectations of liquidity easing increased.

Secondly, the squeeze of the policy on the property market bubble makes the real estate speculation funds gradually withdraw, and the gradual warming of the capital market will attract capital into the stock market.

Third, at the end of last year, due to the downturn in the market, many new funds passed the examination and approval were not issued. This year, the market is getting warmer. A large number of new funds have been launched, which has injected incremental funds into the market.

In the near future, the SFC has issued new regulations to open up fund approval channels, and the issuance of the new fund will remain at a high speed in the near future.

Fourth, in response to the debt crisis, countries such as Europe and the United States have introduced loose monetary policies to inject liquidity into the market and push up the stock market in Europe and the United States.

The warming of European and American stock markets also created a good atmosphere for the rise of the A share market.

Uncertainties increase

Since March, the A share market has entered the pressure area, and the index has emerged.

Wide concussion

。

On the one hand, the small and medium capitalization sector has accumulated more profit taking in the current round of rebound, and some chips have profit making needs. On the other hand, the interpretation of the speed of economic growth and the regulation of real estate policies during the two sessions made the market worried about the easing of the policy.

In addition, March to April is a sensitive period for the annual reports of listed companies. In the context of the domestic economy is still in a downward channel, the uncertainty of the performance of listed companies will make market sentiment cautious.

Therefore, in the short term, we think that the market uncertainty is increasing, and the broad fluctuation or even adjustment of the stock index is reasonable.

However, from the perspective of liquidity, monetary policy, real estate policy, new fund issue or peripheral market and so on, there is no major change at present. The capital push rebound is still expected to continue.

From the recent disk, we can see that although the index has a concussion, the hot market is active, and the small and medium capitalization stocks are stronger than the blue chip weights, and the structural characteristics are obvious.

Of course, from the recent economic data, the domestic economy is still in a downward channel, and when the fundamentals of the economy are bottomed out, there is uncertainty.

It is still unknown whether the promotion of fundamentals push up with the rise of capital drive, which is the key to whether the rebound can turn into a reversal.

Pay attention to structural risk

On the whole, we believe that the market uncertainty increases in the short term. Although the underestimation of the blue chip market limits the downward trend of the index, the possibility of a pullback may be greater in the earlier and larger market capitalization stocks.

In particular, the subject matter stocks that are heated by funds but whose performance is poorer may encounter greater risk release.

In the medium term, the main factors that affect the operation of the market have not changed materially, and the rebound is expected to continue after the market shock is sorted out.

From the operational point of view, it is suggested that investors should pay attention to the exploration of individual stocks in the short term.

Band operation

We should be cautious about the stocks with larger themes.

In terms of asset allocation, we recommend investors to pay attention to the following aspects.

First, pay attention to the concept of new blue chip.

The so-called new blue chips generally refer to the leading enterprises in emerging industries.

These enterprises, on the one hand, are in line with the requirements of national strategic pformation and are supported by policies. On the other hand, their performance is in the leading industry, valuations are not high, and they have both value and growth characteristics. These companies are mostly concentrated in new energy, new materials, information technology and other sectors.

Secondly, due to seasonal factors, the large consumer industries represented by medical organisms and Turisthotellet are worthy of attention.

Third, the annual earnings of listed companies with high earnings and high expectations are worth paying close attention to.