The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Should Be Moderately Relaxed.

　　 Funds outstanding for foreign exchange The sharp decline of the increase provides room for the central bank's monetary control, and the liquidity pressure of the market will be further eased. It is expected that the central bank will moderately relax in the near future, that is, further reduce the reserve requirement ratio of commercial banks and expand the lending ability of banks, so as to ease the demand for funds in the current real economy.

The RMB credit receipts and payments form of financial institutions recently updated by the people's Bank of China showed that the balance of foreign exchange accounted for 25 trillion and 524 billion 756 million yuan at the end of 2, compared with 25 trillion and 499 billion 641 million yuan at the end of 1, and the foreign exchange increased by 25 billion 100 million yuan in February.

Because foreign exchange has a relatively large impact on China's current currency supply, and under the existing trade structure, the problem of foreign trade surplus makes the RMB exchange rate problem restricted. Therefore, the sharp decline of foreign exchange holdings has provided empty space for the central bank's monetary regulation, and the liquidity pressure of the market will also be further eased. It is expected that the central bank will moderately relax in the near future, that is, further reduce the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks and expand the lending ability of banks, so as to alleviate the demand for funds in the current real economy. However, the reduction of deposit rate will not relax at the same time using price tools, because interest rates are at a higher level than developed countries, but because of the contradictions in the development of domestic financial markets and the stability of economic growth, lowering interest rates is not conducive to the development of the current financial market, especially for the allocation efficiency of financial resources. Therefore, overall, under the current situation of international economic recovery, the loose space of monetary policy has been liberalized, which is consistent with the current economic development.

It can be seen that foreign exchange is an important factor affecting the central bank's adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio. During the two sessions this year, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said that the increase or reduction of the deposit reserve ratio is mainly to regulate liquidity in the market. In recent years, the use of deposit reserve ratio tools is mainly related to the hedging requirements arising from the increase or decrease in foreign exchange reserves. In a certain period of time, if the balance of payments surplus is relatively large, the central bank will buy more foreign currencies, which will cause more liquidity. At this time, it is necessary to increase the possibility of increasing momentum and raising the deposit reserve ratio. Otherwise, the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered.

From nearly half a year Funds outstanding for foreign exchange Growth situation, as a result of the impact of the international economic situation, especially the continued impact of the European debt crisis, China's foreign exchange holdings fluctuated considerably in the past six months. In the fourth quarter of 2011, China's foreign exchange accounted for 3 consecutive months of negative growth. In 2011 December, foreign exchange accounted for a net decrease of more than 100 billion yuan, but in January this year there was a net growth of 140 billion 900 million yuan. In February, the increase in foreign exchange accounted for more than 80%. With the expansion of the trade deficit in February, the low foreign exchange position in February has brought pressure to the broad liquidity supply in China. Therefore, it is necessary to release liquidity in macroeconomic regulation and control.

From the perspective of China's money supply mechanism, the reduction of foreign exchange will not change the original mode of money supply in the short term, but if it continues for a long time, it means that the central bank needs to adjust the investment and release mechanism of the domestic basic currency based on the current growth rate of foreign exchange.

On the one hand, the fall in foreign exchange has provided space for the market liquidity. On the other hand, the capital market has also shown a relaxed situation, and the interest rates of each period are at a low level. In the open market, the central bank yesterday conducted a 20 billion yuan 91 day repo operation, winning the bid rate unexpectedly fell to 3.14%, down 2 basis points. Since August 18th last year, the 91 day repo rate has been stable at 3.16%. On Thursday, the central bank continued its suspension, continuing its continued absence this year. The central bank's adjustment of repo rate is relatively rare, so the downtrend of open market operation can be used as a signal of moderate relaxation of monetary policy. At present, banks have a strong demand for repo, and the central bank does not want to return too much money, so the March repo rate has been lowered.

According to statistics, last Tuesday, the central bank reopened 66 billion yuan of funds through the repo operation, and the volume of the repurchase volume hit a recent high. With the 20 billion yuan repo, the amount of withdrawal has reached 86 billion yuan, while the maturity fund is only 29 billion yuan, and the net return volume is 57 billion yuan. At the same time, the interbank offered rate (Shibor) in Shanghai last week rose and fell, but overall remained low. The overnight interest rate and the 7 day interest rate were closed at 2.3477% and 2.8808% respectively. In the inter-bank bond market, the repo rates for 1 days and 7 days were closed at 2.354% and 2.886% respectively, all below 3%.

If the market dynamics are showing a relaxed trend further, a noteworthy message is that the State Council has approved the adjustment of the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China on 11 th. Qian Yingyi, Chen Yulu and Song Guoqing are members of the monetary policy committee. It is worth noting that Qian Yingyi, the dean of the school of economics and management of Tsinghua University, is mostly in transition economics. His brilliant points are mostly in "market and rule of law", "government and rule of law". In an open forum in late February, Song Guoqing said that monetary policy is too tight and needs to be relaxed. He also pointed out that for the current analysis of monetary policy, we should not take more account of the real economy from the perspective of virtual economy. Now the signal given by the real economy is that we need to relax moderately.

Therefore, from these recent signals, we can see that in the context of further promoting the development of the real economy, Central bank monetary policy Further easing of regulatory space and moderately loose is a feature of the near future.