Textile And Apparel Industry Rose Again In The First Quarter After The Industry's Valuation Correction

In the first quarter of 2012, price inflation gradually dropped and consumer confidence index rebounded: CPI rose 3.2% in February, hitting a new low of 3.3% in July 2011. The rise of consumer's three largest index reflects the optimism of consumers in the future employment, current economic situation and personal income expectations of CPI. In 2012, China's GDP growth rate will slow down, indicating that the government's macroeconomic regulation and control is determined to improve the quality of economic growth, and the Chinese economy will continue to shift from output and resource type to consumption and innovation.

In 2012, the growth rate of import and export of textile and garment industry slowed down, and the decline in exports made the industry adjust. Last year, the fixed asset investment in textile industry maintained a steady growth. The export growth rate in the first two months of this year has continued to decline since last year, with a negative growth, mainly due to the gradual increase of export prices from the three quarter of last year. Raw material The decline in prices and the decline in export prices led to a slowdown in exports in 2012.

The cotton ban in India has limited impact on China's cotton price. In 2012, the national cotton temporary storage and storage system increased by 600 yuan per ton. The basic supply of international cotton supply and demand is still oversupplied. We believe that the single event is difficult to change the overall situation, and the ban may have a certain impact on the cotton futures market. The introduction of the plan of purchasing and storage system helps to keep the price of textile raw materials relatively stable. Cotton price Maintain stability in the coming period.

The "12th Five-Year" plan of the textile industry will be a hot spot for the high-performance fiber sector: the whole industry will receive greater policy support and financial support. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of China's high performance fiber industry is expected to be 25% during the period of 12th Five-Year. At present, the overall PE of the industry is about 27 times, and it already has investment value. It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu three friends (002044).

In the first quarter of 2012, we gave the textile and garment industry "synchronous big city" rating: the textile and garment industry's valuation has been reduced to the undervalued interval after adjustment, and the domestic policy has not changed much in the short term. We believe that the home textile and garment sector with continuous callbacks will have investment opportunities, but we should note that the "two sessions" in 2012 indicated that the real estate industry should continue to control risks downwards. Clothing brand Attention should be paid to the speed of expansion of retail stores and the consistency of enterprise growth and inventory digestibility. In the current market environment, it is more difficult to surpass 5% of the total market. The strategy should be suitable for selecting high-quality enterprises from bottom to top.