The Trouble Of "Made In China"

Huo Jianguo: a sharp increase in costs to cut manufacturing competitiveness

The change of the market share of the three largest trading partners of the European Union, the United States and Japan has a direct impact on the overall trend of China's foreign trade, and recently, China's market share in Europe and the United States is decreasing.

Data show that since 2011, China

The main cause of this phenomenon is the recent rising domestic factor costs, especially labor costs.

In the past 3 years, the wage cost of domestic labor force has risen sharply, and the minimum wage standard has been upregulated.

Data show that Bangladesh labor cost is 0.22 dollars / hour, Kampuchea 0.33 US dollars / hour, Vietnam 0.38 US dollars / hour, India 0.51 US dollars / hour, and our country is 1.08 US dollars / hour.

The rise of labor costs has already affected the competitiveness of China's export products.

The rise of cost is also troubled by the export of mechanical and electrical products in China.

The steady growth of electromechanical products trade is an important symbol of the optimization of China's export commodity structure.

But since 2011, the export growth rate of China's electromechanical products has dropped, and the proportion of China's total exports has been decreasing.

In 2011, China's mechanical and electrical products exported 1 trillion and 85 billion 590 million US dollars, an increase of 16.3%, lower than the overall export growth rate of 4 percentage points, respectively, lower than the primary product, agricultural products and industrial manufactured goods export growth 6.8, 6.7, 3.9 percentage points.

Among them, the export growth rate of high-tech products was 11.5%, lower than the overall growth rate of 8.8 percentage points.

The proportion of electromechanical products in China's exports dropped from 59.2% in 2010 to 57.2% in 2011, a decrease of 2 percentage points.

In the same period, the export growth rate of textile and clothing was higher than that of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 20.6%, higher than that of electromechanical products by 4.3 percentage points.

The decline in the proportion of exports of electromechanical products is mainly affected by two factors. On the one hand, the economic downturn in Europe and the United States, the slow development of investment products, resulting in sluggish demand; on the other hand, the pressure on raw materials and costs rises.

According to the survey of China Chamber of Commerce for import and export of mechanical and electrical products, since the end of 2010, the production cost of mechanical and electrical enterprises has generally risen by 10%~20%, and the overall profit level of mechanical and electrical products is relatively low, with an average profit margin of only 3%~5%.

The situation shows that the international competitiveness of China's electromechanical products is weakening.

The decline in the export growth of electromechanical products is contrary to the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade, which is not conducive to the further upgrading of China's export product structure to the middle and high end of the manufacturing industry.

Pei Changhong: it is not realistic to rely on luxury consumption to stimulate domestic demand.

In this year's "government work report", it is mentioned that for foreign trade, one is to grow steadily, and the two is to actively expand imports.

How can China expand its imports? It has been suggested that the excessive tariffs on Chinese luxury goods lead to the loss of domestic purchasing power, and suggest that the import tariffs of luxury goods should be reduced, and the purchasing power abroad can be pulled back, so as to achieve the goal of expanding imports.

Personally, I think this proposal is not feasible.

In 2011, the scale of China's imports of consumer goods was about $120 billion.

Among them, the import scale of luxury goods is about 17 billion US $~180 billion, accounting for 15%.

Although the demand for luxury goods will continue to grow in the future, it is still unrealistic to rely on it to pull hundreds of billions of domestic billion dollar domestic demand markets.

Another step back, even if we need to go abroad.

Yao Jingyuan: the new problem of the three carriages affects the activation of domestic demand.

At present, the most prominent problem in China's economy is the "double pressure coexistence" of economic downturns and rising prices.

From the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2011, the growth rate of China's national economy was 9.8%, 9.7%, 9.5%, 9.1% and 8.9% respectively.

From the point of view of expenditure method, the three carriages that drive economic growth have also encountered new situations and new problems in recent years.

First look at the exit.

In January 2011, China's export growth was 37.7%. At the end of December, the export growth rate had dropped to 13.2%, while in January and February this year, the export growth rate was only 6.9%.

Look at investment.

Investment can be divided into three categories: infrastructure investment, enterprise upgrading, expansion investment and real estate investment.

Among them, infrastructure investment has been stimulated by the 4 trillion injection of money during the financial crisis. Once the growth of 20%~60% has occurred, but with the gradual weakening of the role of financial stimulus, the growth of infrastructure investment is slowing down. In January and February this year, the negative growth of -5.4% appeared. In general, the new investment of enterprises is generally good. However, due to the weak innovation and innovation power of domestic enterprises, the investment in January and February also dropped. As for the real estate investment, the real estate resources and demand are badly mismatched due to investment and speculative capital input.

And the drop in investment growth also directly contributed to the economic downturn.

The last is consumption.

At present, it is in the most important stage of development of China's consumption structure upgrading.

National consumption is gradually shifting from clothing and food consumption to housing and travel. But because of the recent excessively high prices, it is difficult for residents to consume, and the domestic market is hard to activate if residents do not consume.

Zhu Hongjie: five problems plagued foreign trade development pressure

Facing China's foreign trade is not only the lack of external demand, but also many internal challenges. There are five major problems.

everything

Two, the problem of "financing difficulty" is slow.

The macroeconomic regulation and control policy has increased the financing difficulty of enterprises, especially the funds pressure faced by small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises.

Commercial banks are reluctant to lend because of the lack of guarantee and collateral for SMEs, or the operation of SMEs.

Even if financing support is given, interest rates will go up considerably, and the interest rate of small loan companies will be even higher, reaching 4 times of the benchmark interest rate, plus all kinds of expenses in the loan process, which will increase the financing cost of enterprises.

Three is the significant rise in factor costs and the challenge of traditional advantages.

In recent years, the average wage increase of employees is about 10%~12%.

In 2010 and 2011, dozens of provinces / municipalities have raised the minimum wage standards, with an average adjustment of more than 20%.

In particular, the new generation of migrant workers demand higher salary and living conditions and higher short-term migration rate, which will adversely affect the employment of enterprises.

Relatively speaking, the minimum wage rates in Vietnam and Kampuchea are about 1/2 and 1/3 respectively.

Peripheral Southeast Asian countries have a more significant demographic dividend and labor cost advantage. Products can be exported to Europe and the United States to enjoy more favorable tariffs, attracting more and more international manufacturing industries to shift production bases and orders to these countries.

Four, the export risk compensation mechanism is not perfect.

The current situation in China is that more than 90% of foreign trade enterprises are small and medium-sized enterprises, and their risk bearing capacity is weak.

The export credit insurance coverage of foreign trade enterprises is only 10%, many small and medium-sized enterprises are unable to take orders because they are unable to take risks, or dare not receive long lists and large orders.

Since the second half of 2011, the short-term trend of orders has been obvious.

In October 2011, the orders for the Canton Fair were more than half in less than 3 months, accounting for about 1/3 of orders for 3 ~6 months, and only about 10% of orders for more than 6 months.

Five, the international division of labor in manufacturing industry is at a disadvantage and the added value is relatively low.

Li Jian: attaching importance to the factors of stabilizing foreign trade

When it comes to the impact of domestic environment on China's foreign trade, the challenge does exist, but the favorable factors for stability are also increasing.

The challenge mainly comes from five aspects: first, from the medium to long term, the future import is still rigid demand, and it is difficult to restrain the high pressure of import price on foreign trade enterprises; the two is the appreciation and fluctuation in the process of RMB internationalization; three is the labor force problem; four, the productivity improvement of traditional industries can not keep up with the increase of costs; five, the import and export management system can not adapt to the changes of the new situation.

The positive factors come from two aspects: first, domestic inflation is slowing down; in the first two months of this year, China's inflation rate has dropped to 3.9%, and it is more likely to be controlled around 4% in 2012.

At the same time, the exchange rate of RMB also tends to be balanced with trade. Although the renminbi has long been seen as a trend of appreciation, the pressure of recent appreciation has actually eased.

In recent years, whether the RMB's intermediate price or offshore forward RMB exchange rate has risen or fallen.

The 3 month RMB forward exchange rate showed a trend of flat or declining.

In addition, from the data released by IMO in February, the index of export orders is also improving.

I believe that with the further adjustment of macroeconomic regulation and monetary policy, the money supply will shrink in the coming period, and the foreign trade policy will remain stable.

The two is the target of 7.5% growth in gross domestic product (GDP), which is of new significance to the development of foreign trade.

The goal of lowering economic growth is undoubtedly a major positive for the development of foreign trade.

Because lowering the target of economic growth will help curb the overheating of domestic investment and curb the inflation rate, so that the growth of foreign trade will not bear too much upward pressure on costs. At the same time, it will also help to alleviate the tension of enterprises' resources and energy supply and demand, labor supply and demand and money supply for many years, and also help to create an environment for foreign trade pformation, restructuring and promoting balance.