Ministry Of Commerce Research Institute: Consumption Is Expected To Become The First Economic Driving Force This Year.

On the 21 day, the Ministry of Commerce's Research Institute released the 2012 consumer market development report, showing that consumption growth will remain at a faster interval this year, with an expected growth rate of around 15%. The contribution rate of consumption to GDP will exceed investment and become the first driving force for economic growth for the first time in nearly 10 years.

The mode of economic growth coordinated by consumption, investment and export will initially take shape.

From the specific field of view, furniture, building and decoration materials will lead to consumption and become a new highlight of consumption growth.

At the same time, there is room for innovation in expanding the consumption policy, and energy conservation, environmental protection, independent brands, furniture decoration, building materials and service consumption will be encouraged.

However, some experts disagree with the viewpoint of the Ministry of Commerce.

Divergence is expected to become the first driving force for growth this year?

On the 21 day, the Ministry of Commerce's Research Institute released the consumer market development report 2012 (hereinafter referred to as the "report") as an internal report which has been for reference by the Ministry of Commerce for the first time, and this is also the first public release.

"Consumption in 2012 will become the first driving force for economic growth for the first time in nearly 10 years, and consumption growth will remain at a faster pace."

The report points out that although the main pulling force of consumption growth has weakened this year, the fall in prices and the expected interest rate reduction will have a positive effect on consumption growth. Total consumption growth will continue to decline in 2011, and the consumption growth rate will fall to around 15%.

"This 15% is not a policy goal, but a combination of many factors.

At the same time, the report points out that the position of the "three carriages" of consumption, investment and net exports will change significantly in the national economy this year. The contribution rate of consumption to GDP will exceed investment and become the first driving force of economic growth. The economic growth mode of consumption, investment and export coordinated by the "12th Five-Year plan" of China's national economic and social development will be initially formed.

According to statistics, the contribution rate of total capital formation to GDP growth in 2011 was 54.2%, 2.4 percentage points lower than that of last year, and the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to GDP growth was -5.8%, 15 percentage points lower than that of last year, while the contribution rate of final consumption to GDP growth was 51.6%, an increase of 17.4 percentage points over the previous year, and consumption contribution rate was only 2.6 percentage points lower than that of investment contribution rate.

This year's government work report clearly stated that expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, is the fundamental foothold for China's long term steady and rapid economic development. It is the focus of this year's work and should focus on expanding consumer demand.

Huo Jianguo, President of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the economic reference daily that at present, consumption, investment and net exports are facing pressure in all three aspects.

Investment has been growing at a moderate level, and annual investment growth is expected to be around 25%.

The situation of foreign trade is rather grim. It has entered a single digit growth. The continuous decline of exports has aroused concern. It is expected that exports will improve in the second half of this year as the external market stabilizes and the stable export policy is promoted, and the annual growth rate should be more than 10%.

From the perspective of consumption, though there is a downward trend at present, the overall situation is optimistic. If we improve the income level and optimize the consumption environment, a series of

But there are also points of view that it will take some time for consumption to become the main driving force for economic growth.

Liang Huanlei, a senior analyst at the China commercial circulation Productivity Promotion Center, told the economic reference daily that investment and export are facing some difficulties, and the role of consumption is highlighted.

From the perspective of a great power, consumption should also become the primary force to stimulate the economy.

But I am afraid it is difficult to characterize it as the first driving force.

Hong Tao, director of the Department of trade at Beijing Technology and Business University (micro-blog), said in an interview with the economic reference daily that although consumption growth is fast, it can not become the first engine of China's economic growth in a short time. It is estimated that investment will still be the main driving force for economic growth.

Power consumption capability and consumption intention increase

However, from the data of the first two months of this year, consumption growth is not optimistic, especially considering that Spring Festival is often a factor of high consumption season.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, from 1 to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 33669 billion yuan, up 14.7% from the same period last year, and the actual growth rate was 10.8%, after deducting price factors, which was 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points slower than the same period last year.

The sales volume of 3000 key retail enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 8.3%, 9.7 percentage points slower than the same period last year.

In this regard, Zhao Ping also admitted that China's domestic economic growth rate, the employment situation is grim and other factors will also increase the uncertainty of consumption growth.

However, the decline of price level, the increase of per capita income level and the continuous expansion of consumption policy by the state will weaken the adverse factors to a certain extent.

Zhao Ping told our reporter that overall, the main driving force of consumption growth this year comes from two aspects, one is the improvement of consumption capacity.

Due to the rising wage level of migrant workers and the raising of minimum wage standards, the per capita disposable income will remain relatively fast this year, which boosts the ability to consume.

The two is the promotion of consumption intention.

With inflation suppressed, housing prices being effectively controlled and the consumption environment improving, China's consumer satisfaction index, expectation index and confidence index will be stronger in 2012.

From the specific field of view, furniture, building and decoration materials will lead to consumption and become a new highlight of consumption.

In 2011, under the strict control of the real estate market and the support of no expansion of consumption policy, furniture, construction and decoration materials consumption remained high growth, showing strong endogenous growth momentum.

Among them, the annual retail sales of furniture were 118 billion 100 million yuan, the growth rate was 32.8%, which was 15.7 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of social consumer goods. The retail sales of construction and decoration materials amounted to 140 billion yuan, up 30.1% over the same period last year, higher than the average growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods by 13 percentage points.

In 2012, the whole country will start building 7 million sets of affordable housing.

4 million of them will be built by the end of the year to provide stable demand support for furniture, construction and decoration materials.

The rigid demand of the two or three line urban housing that has not yet been purchased will also lead to the gradual release of the growth potential of furniture, building and decoration materials consumption scale.

In the first tier cities with limited purchase policies, the consumption of furniture, construction and decoration materials will become an important carrier for upgrading the consumption structure after the upgrading of automobile and household appliances.

It is estimated that consumption of furniture, building and decoration materials will increase by about 30% in 2012, which will become a new highlight of consumption growth.

Many ministries and commissions are working together to create a new consumption promotion policy.

Recently, many ministries and commissions are working together to create a new consumption promotion policy, especially stimulating consumption policy, which has aroused close attention in the society.

Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, said in January that he would "summarize the experience of home appliances to the countryside and replace the old with new ones", and study and formulate alternative replacement policies in a timely manner.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of commerce is working with relevant ministries and commissions, and the new stimulus policy will be combined with energy conservation and environmental protection and new consumption patterns.

As a think tank of the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Commerce has also undertaken the corresponding research.

The report released on 21 th shows that the basic trend of China's expansion of consumption policy in 2012 is to maintain moderate expansion in the direction of policy support, support means and scope of support on the basis of maintaining the continuity and stability of existing consumption policies. At the same time, it will pay more attention to the coordination between macro regulation and control policies and expansion of consumption policies.

"This year's expansion of consumption policy has some room for innovation."

Zhao Ping said that the possible policy innovation space is manifested in two aspects: first, the new expansion of consumption policy will not support a product in broad spectrum as before, and it may add green, energy saving and environmental protection constraints to support objects.

The two is to expand the scope of consumption policies that may expand and support, conform to the general trend of the upgrading of consumption structure, and incorporate the consumption of furniture, building and decoration materials, and household services, pension and public catering services into the support scope of expanding consumption policy.

Specifically, energy saving, environmental protection, independent brands, furniture decoration, building materials and service consumption will be encouraged.

"Green, low carbon, energy saving, environmental protection is a big development direction of '12th Five-Year', so it is easier to get the approval of the relevant departments in the consumer domain.

Zhao Ping said at the press conference.

As for the issue of consumer reflow in the middle and high-end consumer goods market, which has aroused heated debate, the report suggests that the new expansion of consumption policy in 2012 can be considered properly in terms of tax exemption, tax rebate, interest discount and so on. For the state supported key commodities and service sectors, we can consider the way of receding the consumption tax, and we can consider expanding consumption demand through discount interest for the consumption of loans.

"Taking into account the impact of this year's proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, it is expected that the overall keynote of this year's expansion of consumer policy will be to maintain the continuity of the original expansion policy."

The report said that it is proposed to establish a long-term mechanism for the growth of consumption capacity, which fundamentally relieves the restriction of the purchasing power of expanding consumption and the institutional and institutional constraints of consumers' "money not to buy, money not to spend, and money to buy".

Hong Tao pointed out that stimulating consumption should not only extend the old to new policy, but also develop more people's consumption policies to promote Internet consumption and convenience consumption.

He also pointed out that in addition to the consumption policy, it is another way to stimulate consumption by establishing a good consumption environment, enhancing the power of production reproduction and improving the quality of consumption.

Liang Huanlei suggested that this year, we can highlight the consumption of building materials, home and other fields to cater for the promotion of hot spots such as affordable housing and public rental housing, which will have some effect on stimulating consumption in the short term.

At the same time, some tax and fee burden can be reduced, so that residents can benefit directly or indirectly.

But he also said, "the long-term mechanism of promoting consumption is based on raising income levels and increasing security, but this needs to be realized slowly.

In the short term, certain measures to promote consumption can be achieved, but it is not a long term. "