The Prime Minister Goes Southeast: Manufacturing Is Crying For Food.

On the eve of the first quarter economic data released, the central high level investigation will be launched again.

The focus of attention this time is on the current economic situation, that is, the operation of enterprises.

"I know that the most important situation this year is the downward pressure on the economy and the loss of the company."

Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, said during the inspection.

In from April 1st to 3rd, Wen Jiabao was in Qinzhou, Guangxi, Fujian.

Not only is Wen Jiabao, recently, Vice Premier Li Keqiang, Wang Qishan and other high-level leaders of the central government conducted intensive research and held relevant seminars to "pulse" the current economic situation.

This is the first round of intensive research conducted by the senior leadership of the Central Committee after the two sessions this year.

In Premier Wen Jiabao's research, the situation reflected by enterprises is high inventory, cold external demand market and small and medium-sized enterprises financing difficulties.

At the macro level, the decline in export growth and the decrease in revenue also bring a hint of gloom to the future economic development.

Microcosmic: enterprise stock increase

In Wen Jiabao's research, Fujian PEAK Group Chairman Xu Jingnan (micro-blog) put forward two problems: insufficient domestic demand, resulting in an increase in inventory; comprehensive costs rise too fast, and the growth of exports can not be offset.

These two problems are also common troubles faced by many enterprises.

Reporters learned that in Shunde, Guangdong, a well-known household electrical appliance enterprises are troubled by inventory.

Due to overstocking and slow turnover, the direct result is a sharp reduction in the cash flow of the company.

But domestic demand is insufficient, and inventory can not be effectively reduced.

The company had to go to different companies.

A person who understands the home appliance industry in the PRD said that over the past year or so, the inventory of household electrical appliance enterprises in the Pearl River Delta has increased significantly, especially in the field of refrigeration, and the inventory pressure is even more prominent.

Not only is the household electrical appliance industry, but also the stock situation in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is huge.

Prior to this, Dai Chengqi, a leading designer of casual clothing enterprises in Tonlion, said in a public occasion.

A garment company official said, because of the seasonal characteristics of the clothing industry, even if there was stock in the previous quarter, the new production of the next quarter could not be stopped.

Therefore, once the inventory is accumulated, it will occupy a large amount of funds.

Moreover, because of the production cycle, often the summer clothing is just on the market, it is necessary to start the organization of autumn clothing production input, if a few seasons stock accumulation, easily lead to the enterprise's capital chain fracture.

Due to the pressure of inventory, some garment enterprises began to switch careers.

"From the current monitoring point of view, there has not yet been a wave of business failures, but there are indeed some enterprises shutting down and going out of business, and the overall situation is worrying."

He Zuoxian, deputy director of Guangdong SME Bureau, said in an interview in March 30th.

With the increase of inventory pressure from clothing and household appliances, new industries continue to join the ranks of "inventory forces".

It is understood that affected by regulation and control, the real estate downstream industry home decoration suppliers also have a stock crisis.

Analysts believe that China's manufacturing crisis began to develop from a surface crisis to a deep crisis.

Macro: manufacturing crisis

Inventory is only one aspect.

Su Shulin, governor of Fujian Province, mayor of Shanghai, Han Zheng, governor of Jiangsu Li Xueyong, and Xia Baolong, governor of Zhejiang Province, said in Wen Jiabao's symposium that the foundation of steady and fast economic development was strong in the first quarter of this year, but the financing difficulties of enterprises were still outstanding.

Domestic demand starts to wait for a while, and the recovery of the external demand market has aroused high-level concern from the central authorities.

In April 1st, Wang Qishan held a symposium on "seven provinces and cities in East China's foreign trade situation" in Ningbo.

The participants told the media that most of the participating enterprises reflected "old problems" - rising costs and exchange rate factors affecting corporate profits.

Since January this year, the typical export oriented economy of Shenzhen includes import and export of foreign trade, and a number of indicators have seen negative growth.

In February, Shenzhen's total exports amounted to US $13 billion 820 million. In addition to the year-on-year decline, the deficit was obvious under the sharp contrast of the total import value of US $15 billion 500 million.

The external macro environment is not optimistic, which poses a more severe test to China's manufacturing industry.

"China's economy is highly dependent on the European and American economies, and the impact of imports and exports on the economy can not be underestimated."

Zhang Zhuoyuan, a researcher at the Institute of economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said.

The most serious problem will be investment.

In 2012, investment in fixed assets, including railway construction, shrank sharply.

Statistics from the National Bureau of statistics show that in the first two months of this year, the fixed asset investment reached 2 trillion and 120 billion yuan, an increase of 21.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 2.3 percentage points compared with that of last year.

"According to the data of the first two months, the main factor that drives investment is short-term, such as the real estate sector, mainly from the investment of affordable housing, and the investment in infrastructure construction is still weak. This issue needs to be noticed."

Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Ministry of economic information of the state information center, said.

"One of the key points in presetting the fine tuning of the current macro policy is to ensure that the funds for the continued construction projects are under construction."

In his research, Wen Jiabao pointed out that investment demand is an important aspect of domestic demand.

Zhang Xiaoqiang revealed that China's GDP growth was about 8.4% in the first quarter, 0.5 percentage points slower than the fourth quarter of last year.

Some agencies predict that the slowdown in industrial growth in March will continue in the first quarter, and the overall performance of the manufacturing sector is still weak.

PMI new order index and finished goods inventory index gap narrowed, and significantly less than the same period in the same period.

This reflects that future demand will continue to shrink, thereby inhibiting production activities.

At the same time, industrial electricity consumption also showed a marked decline.

Therefore, in the first two months of this year, the cumulative decline in industrial value was expected.

"Overall, the slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter is a foregone conclusion."

Former peace securities (micro-blog) chief macroeconomic analyst Sun Fanghong said.