China's First Quarter Macroeconomic Analysis

In the complex and severe economic environment at home and abroad, China's economy started steadily in the first quarter. From the published data and leading indicators, China's economy has overcome many difficulties, and has continued the steady economic growth. Price increase The trend of overall decline, however, must also enhance the sense of hardship. The task of adjusting the structure and transferring ways in the future is arduous.

　　 Economic growth slowed down smoothly and controllable

A series of statistical data, economists' research and entrepreneurs' feelings all point to a basic judgment - China's economic growth rate is still falling in the first quarter, but the rate of decline is still in a stable and controllable range. The growth rate of "three carriages" has dropped. In the first two months of this year, the investment in fixed assets increased by 21.5% over the same period last year, down 2.3 percentage points from last year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 14.7%, down 3.4 percentage points from last December. The growth of foreign trade exports was 6.9%, down 6.5 percentage points from December of last year.

Premier Wen Jiabao recently pointed out in Guangxi and Fujian that China's economic performance is generally good. Some major economic indicators have dropped, but they are still at a reasonable level, and the national economy continues to move towards the expected direction of macroeconomic regulation and control. "The start of the first quarter of China's economy is still a steady callback trend, consistent with expectations. Judging from the magnitude of the callback, it is still in a controllable range. Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, said.

In 2011, China's economic growth slowed down from 9.7% in the first quarter to 8.9% in the four quarter, due to the superposition of the European and American debt crisis and domestic active regulation factors. This year's government work report lowered the expected growth target of about 8% in the past year to 7.5%.

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of School of economics, Renmin University of China, is more optimistic. He believes that the leading indicators of China's economy have changed positively in the first quarter, and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has risen from 50.5% in January to 53.1% in March. Looking at the world, the recovery of the US economy is better than expected, and the worst case of the European debt crisis has been avoided for a while.

Ministry of macroeconomic development, State Council Development Research Center, China International Finance Limited companies predict that China's economy will grow by about 8.5% a year in the first quarter.

　　 Regulatory policy effect is emerging

Along with the steady decline in economic growth, price inflation continued to decline in the first quarter, and price adjustment policies and measures were effective. At the same time, since the end of last year, the results of the adjustment and adjustment of macro policies for the new changes in the situation have begun to appear.

China's consumer price (CPI) rose sharply, but rebounded to 4.5% in January, but dropped sharply to 3.2% in February. Experts believe that although some food prices rebounded in March and the price of oil increased, the price inflation generally declined as a result of the fall in aggregate demand.

Liu Yuanchun believed that last year, the state adopted price fixing as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control, and adopted a series of strong measures, and the policy effect was continuously released. Although some food prices have rebounded somewhat, they may slow down the rate of price rise and fall, but overall this year's price pressure is smaller than that of last year.

Zhang Liqun warned that the price problem is still not important. At present, the balance of the broad money supply M2 in China is still up to more than 86 billion yuan, and import inflation, especially international oil price and US monetary policy, are still full of uncertainties. We should be vigilant against the inflation rebound.

Last year's monetary policy, which was tight and tight, returned to a healthy level this year. In the first quarter, new credit is expected to exceed the same period last year. Central bank monetary policy committee's first quarter meeting stressed the guidance of monetary and credit steady moderate growth. All these have released the policy signal of financial support for stable and rapid economic growth.

The effect of positive fiscal policy is obvious. According to the latest analysis report of CICC, the fiscal revenue in the first two months dropped sharply compared with the same period last year, mainly reflecting the impact of structural tax reduction. In the first two months of fixed asset investment, the growth of national budget funds rebounded sharply, indicating that active fiscal policy began to play a role in stabilizing growth.

　　 Steady growth and restructuring is a long way to go

We should fully see the current favorable conditions and positive factors, and do our best. economic work At the same time, we must keep a clear mind and enhance the sense of hardship. We should pay close attention to the new situations and new problems in the economic operation.

"Although the rate of economic growth in the first quarter is still controllable, the economic environment at home and abroad is very serious, and there should be a bottom down. Now we must strive for the initiative "bottom up", which is a very prominent task at present. Zhang Liqun said.

Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, has said that we should focus on the steady growth and pay close attention to changes in the situation, strengthen coordination and coordination of industrial policies and financial and credit policies, effectively resolve various risks and prevent the growth rate from falling too fast.

In terms of monetary policy, subject to the uncertain factors of imported inflation and the existing banking system, credit delivery is still hard to meet the needs of SMEs in time. On the one hand, we should continue to pre adjust and fine tune the monetary policy on the one hand, and strengthen the financing support for small and medium-sized enterprises. On the other hand, we must accelerate the reform of banking industry and vigorously develop small banks, which is a very arduous task.

In terms of fiscal policy, the intensity of structural tax cuts needs to be increased. Under the present circumstances, the expansion of large scale fiscal expenditure is not conducive to stabilizing prices and adjusting the structure. Structural tax cuts can encourage individual consumption and enterprise investment, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. To promote structural tax reduction, it is also necessary to reform the existing fiscal and taxation system. "In the long run, we must rely on deepening reform to achieve steady growth and structural adjustment." Zhang Liqun said that the State Council recently approved the development and Reform Commission's "opinions on deepening the reform of the economic system in 2012", which is a major highlight in the first quarter to promote reform and structural adjustment. The task of reform this year is very heavy. We must conscientiously implement the various arrangements that have been promulgated, laying a good foundation for the stable and healthy development of China's economy for a longer period.