Economic Growth Continued To Slow Down &Nbsp; Macroeconomic Policy Is Expected To Be Moderately Relaxed.

Overall, China's economic growth and price increase probably showed a double slowdown in the first quarter. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the 1-2 months, the industrial added value increased by 11.4% over the same period last year, and the total sales of consumer goods increased by 14.7%, slowing by 1.4 and 3.4 percentage points respectively from December last year, and fixed asset investment grew by 21.5 over the same period last year.

Everbright Bank 2.85+0.000.00%% slowed by 2.3 percentage points over last year. According to customs data, total exports in the 1-2 months increased by 6.9% compared with the same period last year, compared with 13.4% in December last year.

There are also some. Economic advance Indicators showed a growth rebound. China's logistics and purchasing Federation data show that in the first three months of this year, manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, 51% and 53.1%, showing a trend of rising month by month. In terms of financial data released by the central bank, there was a weak rebound in the growth rate of M1 and M2 in February compared with the previous year.

Analysts believe that, compared with the first two months, the economic indicators may rebound in March, but the intensity is not obvious. Under this influence, GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to hit a low level in the past two years.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, recently said at the Boao forum in Hainan that according to the preliminary data of the relevant research institutions, China's GDP grew by about 8.4% in the first quarter, and the CPI rose by about 3.5%.

Song Yu, an Asian economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that GDP growth is expected to be 8.5% in the first quarter, slowing by 0.4 percentage points over the fourth quarter of last year. In March, the added value of above scale industries increased by 11.9%, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 15.4% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment was 22.7% in that month. Driven by monetary easing, China's economic indicators grew faster in March than in the first two months.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, thinks that GDP will increase by 8.5% in the first quarter, and the growth rate will decrease to 1.6% from 2% in the fourth quarter of last year.

In terms of prices, the prices of consumer goods such as vegetables and finished products rose after the Spring Festival, which to a certain extent increased inflation expectations. But judging from the recent period, most vegetable prices have declined to some extent, and prices of important foodstuffs, pork and other staple foods have continued to stabilize. International crude oil prices have not yet exceeded the high points set in February, which means that the risk of short-term inflation is not large.

China's CPI rose 4.6% in the fourth quarter of last year, down to 3.8% in 1-2 this year. Analysts believe that demand driven by the downward trend, the first quarter CPI growth is lower than the fourth quarter of last year will be no suspense. As for the CPI increase in March, it may be located between 3%-3.5%.

Investment and consumption growth is weak.

From the perspective of demand, the negative growth of infrastructure investment growth and the weakening of related consumption of residential banks have become an important reason for the downward trend of economic growth.

Fixed assets investment can be divided into three parts: infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, real estate investment and so on. From 1-2 months' perspective, the above three parts grew by -1.5%, 24.7% and 27.8% respectively. "At present, real estate investment continues to maintain steady and rapid growth, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is steadily declining. The negative growth of infrastructure investment is a major factor in the overall growth rate of investment." Liu Shijin, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, said.

Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the State Council Counselor's office, said that infrastructure investment was usually the highest growth rate in investment in the past. Negative growth has not occurred for many years, and the drop in investment growth rate will have an impact on the overall economic downturn.

The growth rate of consumer goods such as residential banks and gold and silver has become an important reason for slowing down the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods. National Bureau of statistics data show that in 1-2 months, household appliances and audio-visual equipment, furniture, construction and decoration materials and other retail products grew by -2.9%, 25%, 25.3%, respectively, slowing down 24.5, 14.2 and 4.8 percentage points respectively than in December last year. The growth rate of automobile consumption was 12.7%, although it rebounded slightly compared with December last year, the growth rate of automobile production in the first two months was -1.8%; the growth rate of gold and silver jewelry retail sales was 19.1%, which was 16.5 percentage points slower than last December.

　 Great Wall Securities The research report released that the two quarter infrastructure projects, especially railway projects will gradually increase the intensity of the overall infrastructure investment growth is expected to stabilize and pick up. At the same time, the central bank may implement asymmetric interest rate cuts and reduce the deposit reserve ratio, and the improvement of liquidity will drive durable goods consumption growth, and stimulate investment in medium and long term businesses to accelerate.

In terms of external demand, China's export growth rate continued to decline in the 1-2 months compared with last year. However, some experts pointed out that the recovery of major economies is now better than expected. Zhang Yuyan, director of the world economic and Political Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the risk of European debt crisis has been greatly reduced. This year's overall economic growth in Europe is at a low speed, and the economic downturn may be lower than expected.

Policy adjustment fine adjustment space opens

As the economic demand continues to fall, the short-term pressure of inflation rebound is not large, and the space and necessity of the fine adjustment of macroeconomic policy have emerged.

Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, recently investigated the economic situation in Fujian, Guangxi, and pointed out that we should introduce the fine tuning measures as soon as possible according to the situation changes, and at the same time, make policy preparations, leaving corresponding policy space. We should pay close attention to implementing the structural tax reduction policies and so on. We must unswervingly expand consumer demand, maintain an appropriate scale of investment, improve the quality and efficiency of investment, and ensure the capital demand for major projects under construction.

Xu Gao, chief macroeconomic analyst at Everbright Bank, believes that the future macroeconomic policy needs to be pushed on demand side, especially infrastructure investment. It is expected that the relevant policies will be further relaxed in the two quarter, which will drive the growth of the economy to bottom up.

Peng Wensheng believes that the current financing conditions of the real economy are still tight. It is expected that relevant departments will promote the reasonable growth of monetary credit through adjusting the regulatory ratio, including loan to deposit ratio. At the same time, this year's effective fiscal deficit will expand significantly over the past year, which will have an expansive effect on aggregate demand.

about Investment in fixed assets The China Securities Journal reporter learned from the national development and Reform Commission that the investment scale of the central budget in 2012 was 402 billion 600 million yuan, and further tilted to the people's livelihood and the people's livelihood project. Specifically, it will focus on supporting affordable housing projects, "three rural", medical and health and other social undertakings and other livelihood areas of infrastructure construction, increase investment in water conservancy, education, culture, Xinjiang, Tibet and four Tibetan areas, and continue to support major infrastructure construction, energy conservation and environmental protection and ecological construction, independent innovation and strategic emerging industries development, key industrial revitalization and technological transformation, and central level construction and public security law infrastructure construction.

In terms of external demand, the Vice Minister of Commerce, Zijin Mountain, said recently that in order to maintain the stability and continuity of the foreign trade policy, the Ministry of commerce is working with relevant departments to study relevant policies and measures. We should maintain the stability of the export tax rebate policy and increase the export tax rebate. Guide enterprises to take positive measures to deal with exchange rate fluctuations, actively carry out cross-border RMB settlement work, and expand the list of export service trade pilot enterprises. We should improve the regulatory policies for the differentiation of trade financing businesses, support commercial banks to increase support for small and micro enterprises, increase the service level of small and micro enterprises, and enhance the coverage of export credit insurance for small and micro enterprises. We should speed up processing trade approval, guide processing trade to the industrial chain extension, and continue to fulfill the promise of zero tariff for the least developed countries.