Exports Of Footwear And Other Enterprises Trigger An Economic Turning Point.

"The US subprime debt crisis will affect China's foreign trade. Economic growth is slowing down after inflation, and this year's economy may be turning point."

In February 18th, Professor Jiang Lin of South of the Five Ridges College of Zhongshan University said.

"Once the sharp decline in exports, it is indeed possible to bring about a turning point in the current round of economic growth."

In February 16th, Cheng Jiansan, deputy director of the Institute of macroeconomics, Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, said.

"I have always believed that 2008 is the turning point of China's economy, and that China's economy will surely be adjusted in 2008.

In 2008, there will be an Olympic Games in Beijing. The Chinese government will push the economy to 2008 at any cost, but after 2008, there will be no way to manage it. "

Guo Shiping, director of the Institute of international finance, Shenzhen University, said.

They represent the general view of Southern economists.

In fact, economists in the south are full of worries about China's economy in the 2008.

In the Pearl River Delta after the Spring Festival, Guangdong economists feel more worried than other economists.

As long as you stand on the land of Guangdong, you can deeply feel this emotion.

The new year has just passed.

In February 12th, migrant workers who returned to the Pearl River Delta from Hunan and other places found that two shoe factories of Guangzhou Panyu Changchang Shoes Co. Ltd. and Dongguan Hongsheng mould factory suddenly collapsed.

It is said that two shoe factories have been in operation for more than 10 years, and their profits are good.

However, due to the implementation of a series of new policies, such as the export tax rebate adjustment and the restriction of processing trade at the end of last year, the new labor contract law was introduced this year, and the reasons for the rising cost and poor export environment caused by the subprime debt in the United States were hastily closed.

According to Sing Tao Daily, thousands and thousands of shoe factories have been closed down in the Pearl River Delta within one and a half months before the Spring Festival.

In fact, a large number of Taiwanese funded factories and Hong Kong funded factories failed during the Spring Festival, and some even fled their debts.

Yin Desheng, President of the Chinese manufacturers' Association of Hongkong, estimates that in the coming year, nearly 10 thousand of Hong Kong's 70 thousand factories will operate in the Pearl River Delta, which will collapse within this year, accounting for 15% of Hong Kong's industrial buildings in the region.

A large Taiwanese boss in Panyu introduced that he knew that friends around him were considering selling the factory away from the mainland.

The honeymoon period of traditional industries in the Pearl River Delta has passed. Low value-added industries such as shoe factories, toy factories, garment factories and electronics factories are all very sad.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China's processing trade imports and exports reached 986 billion 50 million US dollars in 2007, an increase of 18.5%, less than 5 percentage points of the total import and export growth in that year, accounting for 45.4% of the total import and export value of that year, down 1.8 percentage points over the previous year.

That's why Guangdong economists are more worried about the 2008 economy.

They live in the biggest hit by policy and adverse environment this year.

In fact, over the years, the total foreign trade and import and export volume of Guangdong has accounted for 1/3, and the dependence on foreign trade has reached 160.4%.

At present, the exogenous economy is being severely hit.

Reality is pressing Guangdong to speed up industrial upgrading and economic pformation.

However, for the failure or escape of the low value-added industry in the PRD, Jiang Lin thought that "it is not necessarily a bad thing".

They can leave resources such as land and factory buildings to enterprises with potential for development, so as to prepare for the industrial upgrading of the Pearl River Delta.

However, in fact, this year, not only the traditional enterprises with low added value have encountered difficulties, but the whole foreign trade industry is having a hard time.

The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the global economic slowdown and the tightening of economic policies last year are all uncertain factors in this year's foreign trade.

According to the world economic outlook released by the world bank in January 9th this year, the growth rate of the world economy will slow down by the cooling of economic growth in developed countries such as the United States. The world economic growth rate in 2007 is expected to be 3.6%, and this year it will drop to 3.3%.

The report believes that this year, the global economy is facing risks such as the depreciation of the US dollar, the decline of the US economy and the turbulence of financial markets.

What worries economists most is the US sub debt crisis, which is not yet fully predicted.

In fact, it is having an impact on China's real economy through foreign trade channels.

The uncertainty of export situation this year, especially the expansion of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, has made China's export situation and the overall economic situation full of variables.

The United States, the second largest export trading country in China, will inevitably affect China's foreign trade.

Since 2000, China's export growth to the US has been maintained at over 20%.

However, as the January 17th National Business Conference, which is regarded as the weathervane of China's trade policy, the MOFCOM's expected growth target for trade in goods in 2008 is only about 15%.

This figure exceeded 23% in 2007.

Research data show that the US economic growth rate is slowing by 1%, and China's export growth will slow down by 6%.

CICC's latest research shows that the US consumption growth rate has dropped by 1 percentage points, which will lead to a 5~6 percentage point decline in China's export growth over the past two years.

Taking the textile industry as an example, the growth rate of China's textile and apparel exports to the United States was 21.92% in 2004, 66.09% in 2005, 18.80% in 2006 and 15.26% in 2007. If the growth rate of consumption in the United States dropped to a low level of 3.2% in the next one to two years (4.2% in 2007), without considering other factors, the growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports to the United States will be reduced to about 10% in 2009.

There is no doubt that the subprime mortgage crisis will affect the purchasing power of the United States, which has a direct impact on China's exports this year.

If China's exports to the United States drop sharply, and if domestic consumption is weak, there will be problems of overcapacity and over supply.

The government will adopt more stringent macro-control measures to limit production capacity.

As a result, the sluggish exports will increase the pressure on employment and industrial restructuring.

"The impact of the US subprime debt crisis is further expanding, and it will probably become the biggest unfavorable factor for China's foreign trade in 2008."

Cheng Jiansan said: "if the US sub prime debt crisis caused a sharp decline in exports, China's economy will have an inflection point in 2008."

On the other hand, the continued decline of the US dollar has led to a continuous rise in the prices of international oil and other commodities. The rise in raw material prices will create great pressure on the profits of Chinese enterprises, which are characterized by import and export processing.

Therefore, with the passage of time, the impact of the US subprime crisis on China's real economy and economic growth will gradually appear.

CPI high fever does not withdraw from the figures, the whole year 2007 CPI is only 4.8%, the price level does not seem to be high, but at present, China's CPI index is flawed, the actual price level should be higher than this.

Moreover, since July 2007, domestic CPI has been running at over 6%.

The industry believes that the real price level may be two digits.

Since the end of last year, although the central government has adopted temporary price controls to ensure the stability of domestic prices, the huge snowstorm in the South and the rise in the prices of many bulk commodities in the international market are pushing up domestic CPI.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in February 19th, the total CPI level rose by 7.1% in January, the highest in recent years.

Analysts predict that CPI will set a new high of 7.6% in February, and CPI will probably run at a high level of over 7% in the whole quarter.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced in February 18th that the January PPI price rose 6.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from last month, a 3 year high since January 2005.

The inflation pressure behind these figures can not be ignored.

Controlling the excessive price rise is the heavy task of macroeconomic regulation and control in the past two years.

In fact, from the third quarter of 2007, exports were booming, foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, new loans were ahead of the annual target, M2 growth was high and investment rebounded.

Especially in January this year, RMB loans increased by 803 billion 600 million yuan in financial institutions, the highest in the single month of history, while the market circulation of money increased by 30% over the same period last year.

All these data indicate that China's macroeconomic situation is still overheating.

"At present, tight monetary policy can not be shaken."

Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Institute of finance, Chinese Academy of social sciences.

Tightening monetary policy is the most important role in the 2008 economy in tightening monetary policy. This is the first tight monetary policy in ten years. The first thing to bear is the tightening of the central bank's monetary policy.

Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has made clear instructions that the total volume of new loans of the national financial institutions this year should not exceed the level of last year.

It is reported that in 2008, the new credit lines of ICBC and Construction Bank were 365 billion yuan and 350 billion yuan respectively, unchanged from 2007, while the Bank of China was 260 billion yuan, down 20 billion yuan from the same period last year.

In the case of tighter credit, the commercial banks, which earn more than 80% of their revenue from interest income, will mainly reduce their losses by lending interest rates to SMEs.

Taking the Bank of China as an example, it can compensate for the impact of the 20 billion yuan credit line scale decline if it raises the benchmark interest rate by 6 basis points.

This means that the floating loan interest rate will be a shortcut for banks to maintain the interest rate difference between the deposit and loan, while the "loan interest rate is not closed to the ceiling", which provides convenience for commercial banks to raise the interest rate of floating loans.

"The loan interest rate of small and medium-sized enterprises is generally floating 30%~60% or even more than 60% of the benchmark interest rate of 7.47."

A bank personage introduced.

With only 30% of the above calculation, the lending rate of SMEs reached 9.7%.

Coupled with the cost of small and medium enterprises financing in addition to interest rates, the lending rate reached 14%.

"These excellent companies listed on the SME board have an average annual profit of only 15%."

These people said.

How can most small and medium-sized enterprises borrow money from banks this year?

The difficulty of financing has always been a difficult problem for small and medium-sized enterprises, and this year the problem is more serious.

In fact, since 1990s, China's small and medium-sized enterprises have created more than 76% of the new industrial output value. The total output value of SMEs and the realization of profits and taxes have accounted for 60% and 40% of the total national total respectively, and the export of SMEs accounts for 60% of total exports, providing about 75% of urban employment opportunities.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are the most important force in China's economic development.

Under the background of monetary tightening, the financing difficulty of SMEs is further increased, and the cost of financing has further increased. Economists worry that small and medium-sized enterprises will have a large area of business difficulties and even collapse due to the breakup of capital chain.

"Tight monetary policy and bank credit slowdown are a big blow for businesses."

Jiang Lin said: "in the near future, the government will not abandon tight monetary policy at the macro level, otherwise the policy will not be continuous.

However, local governments and individual banks may be relatively loose in operation. "

The impact of the snowstorm is not great. The southern economy has been hit by a cold climate of 50 years this year. As of February 12th, the low temperature snow and ice disaster has caused direct economic losses of 111 billion 100 million yuan.