RMB Appreciation Breaks Three Barriers In Succession

The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is like a runaway horse, rising faster than the market expected. on February 21, the central parity rate of RMB against US dollar broke through the 7.15 barrier, and the quotation reached a new high of 7.1503. So far, the central rate of RMB / US dollar exchange rate has broken through the four major integer levels in succession, and the pace of RMB appreciation has accelerated significantly, with the cumulative appreciation rate of 2.16% since this year. The appreciation of RMB makes many labor-intensive export enterprises feel pressure. Previously, the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in January 2008, China's trade surplus reached 19.49 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.6%, and the growth rate slowed down. "In any case, the deterioration of export environment in 2008 has become an indisputable fact." China CITIC Macro Analyst pan Xiangdong said. The RMB is rising day by day. The recent rise of RMB can be described as rapid. Since February 15, it has broken through the three passes of 7.18, 7.17 and 7.16 at the speed of one pass a day. In the past five trading days, it has increased by 500 basis points, showing a trend of accelerated appreciation. Compared with the 6.9% increase of the whole year last year, the appreciation rate reached 2.1% in only 31 trading days. Earlier, JPMorgan Chase said in its report that the RMB is expected to appreciate by 10% against the US dollar in a larger fluctuation range this year, and Standard Chartered Bank also predicted that the RMB will appreciate by 9% against the US dollar this year. At the current rate of appreciation, it seems that the bold idea of breaking through the 6:1 middle rate of the US dollar against the RMB seems to be completed at the beginning of the second quarter. On the reasons for the recent sharp appreciation of the RMB, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Central Bank of China, said during the meeting of the bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, on the 7th that high global oil prices, domestic inflation and huge domestic trade surplus are some of the factors driving the recent RMB appreciation. Shen Minggao, chief economist of Citibank in China, pointed out that in order to curb the overall inflation caused by the rise of non food prices, the domestic government should speed up the appreciation of RMB. In addition, the accelerated inflow of foreign capital will further promote the appreciation of RMB. Foreign trade enterprises are very injured. As soon as RMB runs, export trade will have a fever. Referring to the recent RMB exchange rate, Zhou Zhonglin, the boss of a leather shoes export enterprise in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province, called it "Crazy". "Close the door. I can't do business." Zhou Zhonglin said helplessly. Research data show that for every 10% appreciation of RMB, the export growth rate should be slowed down by 3% to 4%. Therefore, every import and export enterprise is nervous about RMB appreciation. Industry insiders believe that appreciation can promote the adjustment of industrial structure, but it is undoubtedly a great test for labor-intensive export enterprises. Textile industry and shoe industry are important members of labor-intensive industry. Fan min, chief analyst of China's No.1 textile network, told reporters that every 1% increase in the appreciation of RMB, the profits of shoe enterprises will drop by 1%, and the profit margin of textile and garment industry will drop by 2%. Up to now, the cumulative exchange rate has been more and more thin. A survey conducted by the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) by the TDC also shows that 62.7% of the enterprises interviewed in the Pearl River Delta can tolerate a rise of less than 10% of the RMB. It can be seen that the recent appreciation of the RMB has exceeded its upper limit. As the RMB is likely to continue to appreciate, its pressure on production costs will continue to increase. Exports slowed down further in 2008. According to the data recently released by the General Administration of customs, China's export in January reached 109.66 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.7%; China's imports reached 90.17 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.6%, and a surplus of 19.49 billion US dollars in the same month. Among them, the import and export of general trade was 97.55 billion US dollars, an increase of 37.2%; the import and export of processing trade was 81.85 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.8%. According to statistics, China's total value of foreign trade increased by US $412.3 billion for the first time last year, reaching US $217.2 billion. But in fact, although China's foreign trade exports maintained a high growth rate of more than 25% in 2007, since August 2007, the growth rate of China's export has slowed down all the way, and remained at about 22% for five consecutive months. Last year, the Ministry of Commerce and relevant ministries and commissions jointly issued a series of policies to reduce export tax rebates and increase export tariffs. At the same time, it increased the adjustment policy for processing trade, which all became the internal cause of the decrease in China's export orders. In addition, the correlation between China's economy and the world economy is becoming stronger and stronger. As the U.S. economy declines, Chinese foreign trade enterprises bear the brunt. China's export growth to China will decline by 10% every year. "The scale of trade surplus will continue to expand, but the growth rate will fall back." Mei Xinyu told reporters. He further analyzed that since China's export base is far greater than its import base, and the fundamental reason for the surplus lies in China's processing and assembling position in the international industrial chain, the strong demand in the international market and the enhancement of the competitiveness of China's export products, the pattern that China's export scale is larger than the import scale is difficult to change in the short term, and the trade surplus will be for a long time to come It will continue to exist.