China Will Account For More Than Half Of The World'S Cotton Imports This Year.

As China's imports are high, 2011/12 Global

Trade is expected to expand by 13% to 8 million 600 thousand tons.

Imports from other countries and regions except China will be reduced by 18% to 4 million 200 thousand tons.

China accounted for 52% of global cotton imports this year.

The surge in imports in China has reduced the amount of cotton used in other countries and regions this year.

As the supply of cotton decreased, US exports decreased by 21% to 2 million 500 thousand tons, but exports from India, Brazil and Australia could also increase.

As a result, China's inventory is expected to more than double in 2011/12, reaching 5 million tons, and the stock in other countries and regions of the world will increase by 14% to 8 million 100 thousand tons.

2012/13 cotton is now being planted in the northern hemisphere.

Because of lower prices, more attractive grain and soybeans, and higher agricultural production costs, the world's cotton planting area is expected to be reduced by 7% to 33 million 600 thousand hectares.

According to the average yield per unit area, world production may drop by 7% to 25 million 200 thousand tons.

The decrease in production is mainly affected by China, and China's output is expected to drop to 6 million 400 thousand tons, or 13% less than that of 2011/12.

Production in India, Pakistan, Brazil and Turkey is also expected to decrease.

The US output could increase by 11% to 3 million 800 thousand tons, even though the sowing area is reduced, assuming that the weather improves and the abandonment rate is lower than 2011/12.

After two consecutive years of decline, 2012/13 Global

Plant consumption is expected to increase by 4% to 24 million 100 thousand tons, benefiting from higher economic growth and lower cotton prices.

Global output once again exceeds global consumption, so global inventories are expected to continue to grow 9% to 14 million 300 thousand tons, or 59% of global textile mills.

The expected accumulation of cotton inventories will be international in 2012/13.

Pressure, but how much downward pressure will be, will depend largely on how China deals with national cotton reserves.