Domestic Demand Is Weak And Sluggish, The Export Situation Of Foreign Trade Textile Or Footwear Is Changing.

According to customs statistics, in the export commodities, the export of mechanical and electrical products in the first 4 months was 346 billion 790 million US dollars, an increase of 8.5%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than that in the same period.

Over the same period, textiles, clothing, shoes and so on.

In the export of products, clothing exports amounted to 39 billion 970 million US dollars, an increase of 1%; the export of textiles was US $28 billion 850 million, a decrease of 0.3%; footwear exports amounted to US $12 billion 400 million, an increase of 4.2%.

Zhang Lei, a macro economist at Minsheng securities, thinks that from the perspective of product characteristics,

The export competitiveness of products is weakened due to various factors such as labor cost and raw material cost.

According to the import data, China imported 144 billion 830 million US dollars in April, an increase of 0.3% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 9.7%.

Among them, general trade imports amounted to 84 billion 800 million US dollars, up only 1.9% over the same period last year, down 0.7% from the same period.

Under the import of processing trade, China's processing trade imports amounted to US $146 billion 880 million in the first 4 months, down 0.3% from the same period last year.

Li Huiyong believes that the growth rate of imports is lower than that of market 10.9%, mainly due to the continued decline in general trade imports.

This explanation

There is still no substantial improvement in the situation.

Yao Wei, a Chinese economist at faxing bank, believes that the growth rate of imports is worse than expected, mainly due to two reasons: first, the price of commodities increased at this time point last year, resulting in a negative increase in the nominal price of commodities this year. Two, the growth rate of investment declined very fast, especially in the regulation of real estate.

Customs statistics show that in April, China exported 163 billion 250 million US dollars, an increase of 4.9% over the same period last year, a decrease of 1.5% over the same period, and an import of US $144 billion 830 million, an increase of 0.3% over the same period last year, a decrease of 9.7% over the same period.

The industry believes that the growth rate of exports and imports in April is lower than market expectations, indicating that the situation of external demand and domestic demand is grim.

In the case of external economic recovery is uncertain, domestic investment and consumption need to be boosted, the support policy for stable foreign trade is urgently needed.

Experts expect that the second half of this year will be better than the first half of this year.

Multiple factors affect foreign trade pattern

It can be seen from customs data that China's exports began to decline since July 2008, due to the financial crisis.

After a series of stimulus policies at home and abroad, exports in 2009 resumed growth.

But with the emergence of the European debt and the US debt crisis and the intensifying European debt crisis in the past two years, the export growth rate of our country has gradually decreased.

The latest customs data show that China's bilateral trade with the EU and Japan has been growing feeble.

In the first 4 months, our bilateral trade with the EU totaled US $170 billion 530 million, an increase of 0.3% over the same period last year; the total trade with Japan was US $107 billion 180 million, down 1.5% from the same period last year; the bilateral trade volume with the United States was US $146 billion 100 million, up 9.2% over the same period last year.

Analysts believe that the decline in export growth is mainly affected by the weakening of foreign demand.

The slow recovery of foreign economy has led to the sluggish external demand and blocked China's exports.

In the future, export growth still depends on the recovery of external economies.

Lu Zhiming, a macroeconomic analyst at the financial research center, said that the trend of export in the future will mainly depend on the recovery of the international economy.

In the short term, the international economic recovery is still not optimistic. We should increase structural adjustment and expand domestic demand.

Li Jian, a foreign trade researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said that from the present point of view, the US economy is recovering moderately, the EU economy needs to be observed, and the developing countries' economy will maintain a certain growth.

The next step of export growth is to see the economic recovery of Europe and America as well as the economic development of emerging economies.

In order to maintain export stability, we should appropriately adjust the export structure and expand the development of emerging markets.

Li Huiyong said that China's exports can not be entirely hoped that "others are good, we will follow suit" and that policies must be well prepared.

Affected by the sluggish market order in Europe and the United States, the cumulative export turnover of the 111st Canton Fair (China Import and Export Fair) decreased by nearly 5% to 36 billion 30 million US dollars this year.

It is worth noting that the latest customs statistics show that in the first 4 months, bilateral trade between China and ASEAN amounted to US $117 billion 650 million, an increase of 6.7%. The total trade between China and Russia and Brazil was 28 billion 690 million and 25 billion 70 million US dollars, respectively, up 27.7% and 14.4% respectively over the same period last year.

Zhang Lei said that the structural adjustment characteristics of the export region continued to continue, and that the growth of exports should be shifted from relying mainly on developed economies to paying close attention to the newly emerging economies.

While China's exports are weak, imports are also showing signs of weakness.

Analysts believe that the weakness of imports shows weak domestic demand, especially the lack of investment.

In the coming period, the change of domestic demand mainly depends on the regulation and control.

Lu Zhiming said that imports mainly depend on domestic economic growth demand and international commodity price trend.

In the medium term, the trend of international commodity prices is downward, but it will also be repeated.

Domestic economic growth depends mainly on regulation and control. In the process of structural adjustment, economic growth will basically remain stable.

In this context, imports will not have much room for improvement.

Li Jian believes that the adjustment of domestic demand mainly depends on the adjustment of the government's investment and domestic consumption.

After the financial crisis, the government launched a 4 trillion stimulus policy, which led to faster investment growth in the past few years and increased import growth.

The large increase in imports has raised the international commodity prices.

Despite the decline in commodity prices, most of the companies bought raw materials at high prices, which were affected by last year's price regulation and lowered sales of product prices.

In the face of the sluggish domestic demand, the slowdown in sales has led businesses to buy again this year when commodity prices fall, thus slowing investment and reducing imports.

It is expected that the government will not introduce a large-scale stimulus policy as it did in the past few years, and more attention will be given to how consumption can be boosted.

Two quarter foreign trade situation or deposit or pfer

Li Huiyong believes that a stable foreign trade policy needs to be overweight.

On the export side, we should increase financial support for the export industry and speed up the export tax rebate process. In the import side, we should maintain steady growth in the domestic economy, increase the start of the 12th Five-Year project and the progress of the resumption of the existing projects.

Only in this way can we stabilize the economic downturn.

It is expected that the foreign trade situation will be better in the second half of this year than in the first half of the year.

Nie Wen, Macro Analyst of Warburg trust, said that because the two pillars of private investment, real estate and exports are not optimistic, the economic uncertainty is still large, and the policy needs to be relaxed rather than fine-tuning.

It is estimated that in the middle of 5, the central bank may reduce the deposit reserve rate once and the financial investment will further increase, and the policy of stimulating exports and consumption will be gradually introduced.

Zhang Lei said that due to the cardinal effect and the improvement of the US economy, foreign trade is expected to be better than the first quarter in the two quarter, and the growth rate of imports and exports will be around 7%.

However, with the increase of domestic labor costs, the traditional processing trade has been shifting outwards, and the growth rate of imports of processing trade is expected to continue to decline.

Adjusting the industrial structure, speeding up industrial upgrading and helping enterprises find profit points urgently need relevant policies to be supported by the government.