Domestic Refined Oil Prices Dropped For The First Time, Analysts Said There Was Still Room For Downside.

According to the national oil price formation mechanism and the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, the national development and Reform Commission decided to reduce domestic refined oil prices from 0:00 in May 10, 2012, that is, on the basis of current prices, gasoline and diesel oil decreased by 330 yuan and 310 yuan per ton respectively.

The price adjustment has become the first reduction in domestic oil prices this year.

According to the state regulations, the provincial Price Bureau announced the highest sale price of refined oil in Guangdong after adjustment.

After the oil price adjustment, the national standard III gasoline No. 90 is 7.37 yuan per liter, 0.25 yuan lower, 93 yuan litre 7.94 yuan, 0.27 yuan lower, 97 gasoline litre 8.61 yuan, reduced 0.28 yuan, 0 diesel oil 7.76 yuan per litre, reduced 0 yuan, Guangdong standard IV gasoline is litre per litre, reduce yuan, the number of gasoline is up to RMB per liter, the decrease is RMB yuan, the number of gasoline is up to RMB per liter, the decrease is RMB yuan.

The provincial Price Bureau requires strict enforcement of the national refined oil price policy, organizing the supply and price supervision of the refined oil products, strictly prohibit all kinds of price violations, and earnestly safeguard social harmony and stability.

Exergy analysis

International oil prices still have downward space.

But experts have different opinions on whether the timing of the new pricing mechanism is mature.

At the beginning of this month, international oil prices plummeted again, and New York's oil price fell for the first time since February 13th this year, breaking down 100 US dollars per barrel.

Earlier, the news about the domestic oil price reduction was already noisy, and gas stations everywhere erected the banner of price promotions, and the price adjustment became the first reduction in domestic oil prices this year.

The price cut exceeded expectations.

This year, the international price of oil has been strong, supported by the emotional constraints of the Iran crisis and the sustained good economic data of the United States since the beginning of this year.

But last week, international oil prices opened the door to a continuous decline. New York's oil price fell by nearly 10% in 5 consecutive trading days, and the change rate of crude oil (96.89,0.08,0.08%) in three places was closer to 4%.

Some experts have analyzed that the increase of crude oil supply is one of the main reasons for the fall in oil prices.

In addition, last week, the labor bureau released the non farm employment data far below market expectations.

Coupled with the weakening of the euro area PMI and the news of France, Greece's election results or restructuring of bad debt, it also boosted the market's short selling sentiment, and oil prices still had room for further downturns.

According to yesterday's national development and Reform Commission's notice, the gasoline and diesel per ton decreased by 330 yuan and 310 yuan respectively, the rate of reduction far exceeded the industry's expectations.

Insiders believe that the price adjustment will slow down inflationary pressure to a certain extent.

In fact, since the country raised oil prices in March 20th, the oil price cutting tide has begun to germinate.

High oil prices suppressed demand for oil products in the market, and in the early April, most of the gas stations in China launched a wave of price promotions to stimulate consumption.

The timing of the new pricing mechanism is ripe?

As China's dependence on foreign oil continues to rise, the impact of international oil prices on domestic growth is increasing.

Earlier, the head of the national development and Reform Commission made a clear statement that this year, we need to choose the price reform plan for refined oil products, which makes the market full of expectation for the new oil pricing mechanism.

Whether the oil price cut will become an opportunity to launch the new pricing mechanism?

Some experts believe that the current domestic economic and market environment is more suitable for the introduction of the new pricing mechanism. On the one hand, the domestic inflation index is not high, the supply and demand of the refined oil market is relatively balanced, on the other hand, the international oil price is in a downward cycle, and at this time a new mechanism is introduced, and the acceptance of the market will be relatively high.

However, some experts pointed out that the marketization reform of China's refined oil pricing mechanism should be both internal and external. It should consider not only linkage with international oil prices, but also domestic supply and demand changes.

Although the domestic refined oil price adjustment is basically determined, but the international crude oil is still high and the latter trend is unknown, the probability of the new oil pricing mechanism is still not large enough.

It is also analyzed by insiders that the frequency of the new mechanism will obviously accelerate, but the trend of domestic economic operation is still unstable. The greater the degree of openness, the greater the impact on the downstream will result in a significant increase in inflation expectations. The probability of this launch is limited. If the original oil futures return to 80 to 85 US dollars / barrel, the possibility of the new mechanism will be greater.