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2012 China'S Macroeconomic Growth Is Hard To Pick Up.

2012/4/21 18:02:00 6

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At the macroeconomic level, the decline in China's real economy growth next year will be significant, driven by the drop in external demand and investment and capital constraints, and will drive inflation down rapidly.

This trend is unlikely to end in the next two quarters, and inflation is expected to fall below 3% in the two quarter of next year.

The bottom of the economy is likely to happen next year.

First quarter

There will be a rapid rebound in the two quarter of next year, but whether such a rebound means that the growth rate of the economy will recover steadily is still uncertain.

The main reason is that from the three carriages driving economic growth, the impetus for supporting the economic rise is insufficient. In the context of European countries' debt reduction, export growth will be sluggish; the growth rate of real estate investment will continue to decline; the only thing that can be expected is whether investment in the private sector can significantly offset the decline in other sectors, and the growth of private sector investment depends on whether there is substantial relaxation in the capital sector.

At present, China's economic growth has declined for 5 consecutive quarters. From the point of view of exports, the slowdown in European and American economies has led to a decline in the growth rate of imports from China, and the continued appreciation of the renminbi has stimulated the accelerated growth of imports.

As a result, trade deficits and net exports have made negative contributions to economic growth.

The main trends of the future trend are: (1) net exports will grow at a low speed.

Rapid growth

It is not the goal pursued by the government; (2) the trend of sustained deficit is less likely; (3) trade balance is basically balanced; (4) the exchange rate of RMB is rising slowly; (5) economic growth is mainly dependent on domestic demand, and the growth rate of single digit will be normal; (6) net exports no longer constitute inflationary pressure, and inflation is relatively mild.

The conclusion is that the macroeconomic structure tends to be balanced and reasonable, but the growth rate slows down and social welfare improves.

In the short term, the deposit rate will further restore the liquidity of the inter-bank market, but whether the liquidity of the real economy depends on the bank's loan to deposit ratio, the intensity and progress of the credit, and the further trend of foreign exchange.

The adjustment of the real estate market may also affect the trend of liquidity. We expect liquidity to gradually ease, but the current situation still needs to be more prudent and wait for the broad-spectrum interest rate to decline.

At present, China's economy is facing savings, investment and

Import and export

The three major inflection points, which lack the power to pull the economy up, will not really recover in the second half of next year. The recovery in the two quarter is only a technical rebound.