Clothing Consumption Drives Wuhan CPI

Recently, the National Bureau of statistics released data show that in April, the national consumer price level rose 3.4% year-on-year.

The Hubei Provincial Survey Bureau and Wuhan Statistical Bureau released the provincial and municipal data show that in April, the CPI of Hubei increased by 3.9% compared with the previous year, while Wuhan increased by 3.8%, which is 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the whole country.

From the specific price category, we can see that in addition to consistently rising food prices,

Daily necessities, air travel and service index have become new price rises.

Food price stability

Meat, eggs, fish, edible oil and so on.

The CPI data released in April showed that food products in Hubei increased by 7.5% over the same period last year, or 0.2 percentage points from last month, of which 6.9% increased by 6.9%, fresh vegetables increased by 26.3%, aquatic products increased by 17.2%, and dining out increased 8%.

Food prices in Wuhan increased by 6.3% over the same period last year.

In contrast, food categories in Hubei and Wuhan have gone up and down.

The prices of meat, poultry and eggs decreased, while freshwater fish, fresh fruits and edible oils showed an upward trend.

Among them, the rise of freshwater fish is more obvious, Hubei Province rose 5.9%, while Wuhan increased 7.5%, which is the biggest food category.

"Hot weather, people's demand for pork and so on becomes less and begins to turn to fish, which leads to higher fish prices."

Provincial Statistics Department officials analyzed that with the continuous decline of pork prices, other food categories can rise to keep balance with pork and make food prices more stable. On the one hand, it can be seen that government regulation has begun to play a role.

Clothing sales high ticket prices rose 17.7%

According to the data released by provinces and cities, prices of clothing and daily necessities increased significantly in April, and the travel expenses of air tickets and other items also increased.

April, because summer is coming, many

On the market, the cost of materials increased, clothing prices increased, and clothing categories increased by 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.

Among them, the rise of clothing in Wuhan is obviously larger than that in the whole province. The men's T-shirts in Wuhan rose by 3.6%, the T-shirts in women increased by 2.2%, the women's shirts increased by 4.4%, and the children's clothing increased by 1.1%.

Not only that, the price of gasoline and diesel increased, but the domestic and international flight routes increased the fuel surcharge tax. In April, the price discount of air tickets in Wuhan decreased, and the cancellation of some airline ticket discounts, resulting in a marked increase in ticket prices compared with March, an increase of 17.7%, driving traffic prices up 0.5%, and also an important factor in driving CPI up.

Experts: CPI will fall in May

In April, the CPI of the whole country increased by 3.4% over the same period of last year, which was smaller than that in March. However, the increase in Hubei and Wuhan increased in March.

In this regard, Ye Qing, deputy director of Hubei Statistical Bureau, said that the rise in oil prices is an important reason.

Many commodities in Hubei are imported from other countries. The rise of oil prices directly leads to the increase of logistics cost, which makes Hubei's CPI run in front of the whole country.

On the other hand, the demand for hot pork is smaller, but the price of fresh vegetables is still rising.

Ye Qing said that April is already the high point of CPI in Wuhan, Hubei.

Since May, the drop in oil prices, coupled with the government's policies to reduce vegetable prices, will be a factor in the fall of CPI.

He predicted that in May, the CPI would drop on the basis of April, and the consumption pressure of residents would also decrease.

Liu Wei, vice president of Peking University, Wuhan on China's economic situation and regulation

"The current CPI inflation rate is not high, but the causes are complex and even more worrying."

China's economic opportunities and challenges, rapid economic growth and insufficient domestic demand

Liu Wei first showed a set of data, from the total economic point of view, by the end of last year, China's total GDP exceeded 47 trillion, and the average per capita was only 32000 yuan, ranking 122nd in the world.

"The ranking is relatively low, which is equivalent to the average level of developing countries in middle income."

But in this respect, the international community is controversial, and thinks that the level of China's development is underestimated. The reason is that many service industries in China have not been counted to GDP, and the RMB exchange rate has also been underestimated.

Nevertheless, from the perspective of supporting the structure of GDP in China, such as the proportion of agricultural labor force employment (37%), industrialization rate (70%) and urbanization rate (51.3%), all indicate that China is a middle-income developing country.

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"But no country in the world can maintain economic growth of over 9% years in ten years or twenty years as China does. If we give China ten years, we can achieve a well-off society in an all-round way. If we give China twenty or thirty years, at such a speed, China can enter the ranks of the developing countries."

Liu Wei was a little excited.

He believes that it is precisely because China is in the middle income stage that it must cross the threat of the "middle-income trap".

Unable to follow the "Latin American Trap", "East Asian bubble" and "Middle East and North Africa crisis", these countries have stagnated after a period of high-speed growth reaching the middle income stage.

For its deep reasons, Liu Wei thinks that it is caused by three aspects.

First, insufficient domestic demand.

This is mainly due to the weakness of investment and consumption.

The decline of investment demand is mainly due to the lack of innovation and R & D capability; the weak demand is due to unreasonable distribution of national income and increasing income gap.

"The more money people get, the less money they spend. The more money they have, the more money they dare not spend."

The two is the rising cost.

The advantage of developing countries is that labor, land and other factors are cheap. But after ten or twenty years of development, the prices of these factors will rise.

"Therefore, the rise in labor prices is an inevitable trend."

The three is the lag of marketization.

This is mainly reflected in the lack of institutional innovation, the allocation of resources is not based on the principle of efficiency, but the government's approval. "Holding scarce resources in the hands of the power sector will naturally cause serious inefficiency."

"We can say that in these three aspects, our country has different degrees of expression.

Therefore, I will say that China's economy is coexisting with opportunities and challenges, and how to control these three key problems and achieve crossing is crucial.

Liu Wei talked about it.

China's economic contradictions and readjustment are facing double pressures of resisting inflation and ensuring growth.

"China's CPI is around 3.8% in the first quarter, and the data released just now in April is not high, at 3.4%.

But why do we still worry so much? "Liu Wei thinks that although the inflation index is not high, the reasons behind it are complex.

It is mainly embodied in demand pull and time lag.

From 2008 to 2010, the government adopted a powerful means of expansion to deal with the global financial crisis, and voted 4 trillion. Although it avoided a slide from the global economy, it also inflated the pressure of inflation, and this time delayed for two years.

Secondly, there are more obvious cost drivers, certain international input and unbalance of international payments, such as the European debt problem.

In the face of unprecedented complex inflationary pressures, China's economy has begun to show a significant downward trend. In the past, the government promoted investment projects, without subsequent financial support, could only be idle.

"It's like digging a hole to stimulate investment, employment and consumption. Just digging up the pit and having no money to fill it, the employment and consumption will go down."

The result is that the government intervention is inefficient and unsustainable.

"The government loans money to large enterprises, but large enterprises lack technological innovation and money can not be thrown out; small businesses are limited by various" red lines "and can not borrow money, which is caused by insufficient institutional innovation.

Liu Wei said.

In addition to weak investment demand, why consumer demand will also be weak? "Let's think, income distribution is mainly government, enterprises and individuals, the government is the financial revenue, the enterprise is GDP, the individual is the income of the residents."

Liu Wei inspired the audience to say, "what is the fastest growth? It is fiscal revenue. During the" 11th Five-Year "period, the annual growth of fiscal revenue is 21%, equivalent to two times of GDP, 3 times of resident income, and the money of the people has not increased. How to stimulate consumption? Did the" 12th Five-Year outline "write" let the growth of residents' income synchronize with GDP "?

"Since the policy of controlling inflation and economic downturns is reversed, the government should tighten fiscal and reduce inflation and expand the economy to stimulate the economy. This is a contradiction. Therefore, the guiding direction of the present policy is to achieve balance in achieving different macroeconomic objectives."

Liu Wei said, this means "steady progress".

"The CPI that we just announced today is not high, only 3.4%, but the reason behind it is even more worrying."

Yesterday, Liu Wei, vice president of Peking University, who was invited to attend the annual meeting of the Central Accounting Association of Hubei Province, and vice president of Peking University, said in the keynote speech of "China's economic situation and regulation", the current Chinese economy is facing not simply inflation but also the threat of economic downturns.

Under the condition of weak investment demand and insufficient consumption demand, China's economy must go through the "middle income trap", which is both opportunities and challenges.