The Order Amount Of Sporting Goods Has Dropped Significantly, And Inventory Has Become A Big Worry For Dealers.

Recently, Anta sports announced the latest quarterly sales volume and first quarter sales performance. The report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2012, the order amount of Anta products coming into the market in the two quarter of the year has fallen by a low two digit percentage. Under this influence, Anta's annual order volume is expected to fall by a high percentage per unit. Coincidentally, the four quarter of PEAK, another domestic sports brand listed on the Hong Kong stock market, is also not ideal for the first quarter of the year, down from 20%-30%.. It is understood that the two sports brands started in Fujian are not only "the same disease" but also have the same root cause. Distributor Confidence also has an impact.

　 Dealer demand decline

Anta did not disclose the specific size of the four quarter decline in orders, but according to its description, at least more than 10%., Anta also adjusted orders for the third quarter, which had not yet been produced, resulting in a reduction in the value of unit orders in 2012.

Looking back to Anta this year Order-placing meeting The "transcript" increased by 15% in the first quarter of 2012, but in the third quarter, the situation reversed and became a "high unit percentage decline (6%-9%)". The fourth quarter not only improved but also dropped from "unit number" to "two figure".

This is not a problem with Anta's sports apparel brand. PEAK's four quarter orders are lower than market expectations.

PEAK announced that the amount of orders in the fourth quarter of 2012 decreased by 20%-30%., of which footwear orders decreased by 25%-30%, and clothing orders decreased by about 25%.. "The order decline is less than we expected before." It is reported that PEAK committed to the dealer "no rigid targets", that is, did not ask dealers to "eat" into the number of goods. The implication is that the drop in dealer demand is one of the main reasons.

All along, unlike Nike, Adidas and other international brands, the domestic brands represented by Anta and PEAK are mainly attacking the domestic market. Since the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008, stimulated by the Beijing Olympic Games and a series of sports events, the market has become a rare growth spot in traditional industries. In addition, the economic crisis has caused the export industry to be blocked. Clothing enterprises have been building brands to fight the domestic demand market. These early sports brands are better than the international brands in the relatively blank two or three line market.

Because of this, the "negative" attitude of distributors to the four quarter order meeting seems to convey an industry signal, and domestic market demand has slowed down.

　　 Orders will be greatly reduced: highlighting inventory problems

From the above sports brand's explanation of the decline in the order amount, we can see some clues. The official statement of Anta said, "since the group announced that the order will start in the first half of 2012, the group still believes that the competition in China's domestic sporting goods industry is becoming increasingly fierce. Although the operation and sales channels of the group remain stable and normal, such competition has had an impact on the profitability of the group's retailers in the past few quarters. " Earlier, Ding Shizhong, chairman of Anta's board of directors, once said, "the industry is full of challenges in the next six to 1 years. I hope that the order can be flat this year, and I believe the situation will improve in the second half of the year."

PEAK said that the decline in the amount of orders reflected the pressure on the one hand. On the other hand, it also reflected that distributors' confidence in the market had not yet been restored and was still on the sidelines. In addition, the cost of goods and brand will not be reduced, and the company's profitability will also decline.

Behind the PEAK's mention of "clean goods", the inventory problem of extrusion has surfaced. According to PEAK CEO Xu Zhihua, the inventory of PEAK retail terminal is about 1 months, and dealer inventory is 5 to 6 months, with a total of about 6 months. That is to say, half a year's inventory backlog is directly related to the internal strength and confidence of distributors.

Anta is also suffering from inventory problems. According to Anta, the decline in orders in the fourth quarter is related to the company's initiative in controlling inventory. "In order to reduce the potential inventory risk of retail channels, the discount will be made to reduce the order that has not yet been shipped."

The stock curse not only falls on Anta and PEAK. Another major sporting goods business in China announced that the inventory reached 4 billion 512 million yuan in 2011, up 81.8%.

How wide is the impact? Investment banks are different from each other.

Known as China in the past 10 years Sports goods Ten years of gold. Even after the economic crisis, sporting goods companies, such as Anta, PEAK, and 31st degree, had been completely rid of the pure export business mode, and annual sales increased year by year. Liang Jie, an apparel industry analyst at Hua Jie, thinks that because of the inertia thinking that has been formed in the growth of annual performance, most sporting goods companies are holding the idea that they are not afraid of selling, but are afraid of not selling goods. Therefore, even if there is stock, it can not create pressure under the huge market demand.

However, Stock On the one hand, there are overproduction factors, and on the other hand, the market demand has slowed down, and this node has already appeared in 2012.

Is this a "bone injury" or is it just a temporary slowdown in performance? Although UBS has lowered its 2012-2014 year profit forecast for Anta, it still maintained a "buy" rating. The Credit Suisse report pointed out that the growth of Anta's same store was weak, and its orders and profits were under pressure, so that its investment rating was lower than that of the big city, and the target price dropped from 6.30 yuan to 5.70 yuan. Guotai Junan (Hongkong) maintains a rating on Anta's holdings, and believes that its earnings forecast may be further downgrading. "The revised order growth in 2012 is lower than our expectation, and the profitability will be impaired, and the forecast profit will be further reduced."