June 19, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

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Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20308 yuan / ton; 229 level 19423 yuan / ton; 328 level 18478 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17580 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9740 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15070 yuan / ton; C32S price 25670 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 18 days, despite Zheng cotton

Price is now

However, domestic cotton spot prices have not been associated with a significant increase, but only slightly increased. Considering that the textile industry has entered the traditional off-season, the start-up rate has dropped significantly and cotton demand is weak.

3. imported cotton: in June 18th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton rose slightly, and the varieties increased by 0.3-0.5 cents. The price of Egypt's long staple cotton fell.

In recent days, rumours circulated in the market have become the main drivers of the rise in domestic and foreign futures prices. India's raising the minimum domestic support price also provides support for the international cotton price.

4.ICE cotton: in June 18th, the Greek Conservative Party won the general election, which once stimulated ICE futures to become stronger in December. However, with the spread of pessimism in the euro area, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, resulting in a partial increase in December contracts.

Summary:

In view of the fact that the pre cotton has declined a lot, the strength of the bottom and the air leveling increases gradually. In the early stage, when the government increased the rumor of buying and storing, some of the profits were once evacuated, and many parties took advantage of the situation to boost the wave.

But cotton demand remains weak, and there is no sign of improvement. Cotton prices remain high inside and outside, and domestic cotton prices are still at the top of global cotton prices, and the pressure is still small.

If the cotton textile industry itself does not have a large number of themes, cotton prices will hardly become strong, and the futures rebound will be limited.

There are more macro messages that need special attention recently. From Greek elections to the US QE3, all of them will have a systemic impact on commodities.

Yesterday, Zheng cotton stood on the 20 day moving average, suggesting that investors would no longer be short. During the rally, Zheng cotton's January contract was under pressure at the 19600 and 60 average lines.

[MEIKO futures] the macro fundamentals are entangled. Zheng cotton's direction is uncertain.

Overnight, the Greek Conservative Party won the general election in June 18th, which stimulated ICE futures to strengthen their contracts in December. But with the spread of pessimism in the euro area, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, resulting in a partial increase in December contracts.

The July contract, which is facing deliveries, was closed at the push of the short replacement disk.

At present, the market outlook is not optimistic. If cotton prices fall below the bottom of 67.96 cents in the future, the market will return to a downward path.

In the international market, 18 days, the price of China's main port of imported cotton rose slightly, and the varieties increased by 0.3-0.5 cents. The price of Egypt's long staple cotton fell.

In recent days, rumours circulated in the market have become the main drivers of the rise in domestic and foreign futures prices. India's raising the minimum domestic support price also provides support for the international cotton price.

From the actual supply, the number of US cotton exports for this year has already bottomed out. 18 days, Zheng cotton futures and ICE futures continue to open up turbulence.

The domestic market, on the 18 th, although the price of Zhengzhou cotton is now recovering, the domestic cotton spot price has not been affected by the combined effect and has risen sharply. It has only increased slightly. Considering that the textile industry has entered the traditional off-season, the start-up rate has dropped significantly, cotton demand is weak, market confidence is insufficient, and the downstream demand is still weak. Cotton prices may still be dominated by oscillations.

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Spot quotation. In June 18th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 89.75 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 15008 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The price of Australia cotton was 95.10, the general trade port delivery price was 15860 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 92.65, the general trade port delivery price was 15472 yuan / ton, the West African cotton price was 88.85, the general trade port delivery price 14873 tons.

The national cotton price index A is 19425 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan, and the B index is 18479 yuan.

Market analysis, the United States cotton 07 since June, the 3 degree limit, the 84 line of trend pressure.

The US market is mainly due to the surge in export surges brought about by China's import price parity. Undoubtedly, import pressure will suppress domestic cotton prices.

However, the US cotton import can not only produce warehouse receipts, but also can not be used for storage. It can only be used for production, and is basically made by state-owned enterprises. It is indirectly stated that: 1, cotton prices are running at this point and gradually accepted by the consumer market 2, and policy orientation means that.

Therefore, even if the internal and external strengths and weaknesses are deviated from each other, the recent strengthening of the external market should attract enough attention.

The market direction is not clear as the macro and fundamental aspects are entangled.

On the operation, trend wait-and-see or short-term within the day.

[Jinpeng futures] weak market, slight stabilization of cotton market

Electronic matching:

In June 18th, the volume of trading was reduced and the total amount of orders increased. The amount of orders in each contract decreased by 240 tons except for MA1210 contracts; the remaining contracts continued to increase; the average price continued to rise.

The cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 9640 tons, a decrease of 4020 tons compared with the previous day, an increase of 600 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 148880 tons.

Two. Futures market

1. ICE: cotton futures closed higher on Monday, as investors took short refunds and released positions before the spot July contract expires next week.

Index cotton contract in December rose 0.84 cents, 71.86 cents per pound; index July cotton contract rose 3 U. S. seal and daily limit.

2. Zhengzhou: Zheng cotton's main contract opened high, the early trading was adjusted under the pressure of short selling, noon was supported by long buying, afternoon horizontal finishing, the star line was formed in the near future, and the forward line was formed on the daily line.

The CF1209 contract concluded 36486 hands on the day, 2488 on the day, and 149098 at the end of the contract. The CF1301 contract day was 264316 hands, the second hand was 11080, and the final position was 282748 hands.

Three. Spot market:

Wei Qiao offer: three level: 19300 429:18500 (temporary suspension)

CC INDEX328:18333 yuan / ton, down 13 yuan.

Others: the average price of grade 527 cotton to plant is 16061 yuan / ton, or 12 yuan.

Although the electronic disk has continued to rebound recently, its impact on the spot market is limited.

Cotton city is still in a weak position.

Some cotton enterprises with inventory are difficult to sell, but not even more difficult to sell.

The outlook for textile enterprises is still unchanged, with fewer orders and insufficient funds still troubling spinning enterprises.

Cotton side, cotton seed quotes are stable; in the short term, oil and weak meals are hard to break; cotton lint prices have slightly increased, signs of market or improvement.

Downstream, the overall price of yarn has eased slightly, but the market is still weak and hard to change. The whole market is still almost deserted and decadent.

Four, macro environment: as of June 17th, the excellent and good rate of cotton growth in the United States was 53%.

The US stock market is mixed and is affected by the debt problem of Spain and Italy.

Five, operation recommendations: Zheng cotton CF1209 contract opened up concussion, the line is located at the front line of the previous day, the trend of the pattern is much more; the hourly graphics formed on the front of the box was blocked and adjusted, the short line has not yet identified the breakthrough form, the short-term trading center moved upward relative to the market, and the probability of the rebound upward upward in the future market was larger.

Zheng cotton CF1301 contract opened high and closed the whole line. The day line recovered the previous day's high point and stabilized on the 20 day moving average. The trend of the pattern was more frequent. The hour figure was not broken by the high speed, but it was also suppressed by the previous box. When the market continued to rise, it could be concerned about the price range near 19700.

Operation suggestion: wait-and-see is the main and short line is too much.

Six, trend test: 1301 rise (neutral), light warehouse more than single hold, stop loss 18790

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Arbitrage operation: selling January to buy May, leaving the warehouse

[Soochow futures] domestic cotton basic weakness

In June 18th, Zheng cotton market continued to rebound. The main 1301 contract closed 19395 yuan / ton, closing up 120 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Volume reduced to 264316 hands, and positions increased by 11080 to 282748.

From the ranking of 20 positions held by Zheng cotton, the number of long positions increased by 3596 to 134800, and the number of short positions increased by 1894 to 176295.

There were 3059 cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengshang yesterday, an increase of 60 pieces compared with the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 133.

Overnight, the US cotton market came up short before the July delivery. In July, the contract closed at the limit of trading, while ICE12 cotton rose 0.84 cents to 71.86 cents per pound.

On the spot side, China's cotton price index slipped 13 yuan to 18333 yuan / ton in June 18th.

The price of imported cotton FCindexM increased by 0.32 to 83.82 cents / pound compared with the previous trading day. The cost of import was 1% yuan / 13530 yuan / ton, and the price of imported cotton was 14042 yuan / ton, and the imported cotton was skid duty of less than 4291 yuan of domestic cotton per ton.

In June 15th, international cotton spot edged down 0.15 cents / pound to 82.50 cents / pound, and the sliding quasi tax price was 14333 yuan / ton.

In the downstream market, the price of KC32S yarn in the downstream of June 18th was 24660 yuan / ton, JC40S price was 30690, the price fell 10-20 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the purchasing in downstream market was cautious.

Cotton substitute, the price of polyester staple in June 18th was unchanged at 9800 yuan / tonne compared with the previous trading day, and the market was mainly on the sidelines. The price of viscose staple fiber decreased by 200 yuan / ton to 14550 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Related information: as of June 17th, the excellent and good rate of US cotton growth was 53%, compared with 26% last year.

Summary: on Monday, Zhengzhou cotton market continued to rebound in the past week under the strong driving force of the periphery. Among the 1301 main contracts, the two sides were fighting fiercely on the 19400 front line. The main force was shorter than the empty ones, and the short-term average moving upward. The MACD index continued to rise, and the red column increased, and the rebound trend was expected to continue.

In terms of domestic cotton fundamentals, the recent rebound in electronic disk and Zheng cotton has limited impact on the cotton spot market, and the difficulty of selling cotton stocks is still unchanged. Spinning enterprises have fewer orders, production cuts and production restrictions are still going on, and the price of gauze has eased, and the entire textile market is falling apart.

Some parts of Xinjiang suffered hail during the weekend, making local cotton production.

It is reported that about 120 thousand acres of cotton fields are reported to be dead, but the impact is limited relative to the 26 million acres of cotton fields in Xinjiang.

In recent years, the overall weather situation in China has experienced a pattern of Southern waterlogging and Northern drought. At present, the drought climate in Hebei, Shandong, Henan and other North China and Huang Huai regions has adverse effects on cotton growth. In the latter 7-8 months, the impact of the whole climate on cotton yield still needs to be paid attention.

Last night, the optimism of the Greek election subsided, the cost of financing in Spain rose sharply, its 10 - year Treasury yield rose to over 7%, market worries turned to Spain, and the night dollar index rose slightly, and commodities were pressed.

The US cotton market has continued to touch up trading contracts in recent months under the extended trading. The main contract in December has gained 0.84 cents / pound or 1.18%. Its technical shape is intact, and there is a further rebound demand.

On the whole, although domestic cotton basic weakness, and peripheral debt related concerns are still fermented, but in the US cotton strong performance boost, Zheng cotton is expected to continue to strong shocks, the operation yesterday, the main 1301 contract admission alone more cautious, concerned about 19400 competition.