Textile Industry Is Weak, External Demand Continues To Slump, Domestic Demand Is Not Enough.

The overall weakness in the textile industry is exacerbated by polarization.

Overcast clouds, slow growth in the US and other economies, consumer demand has been significantly suppressed, and the high degree of domestic textile industry inevitably goes into a weak market. From raw materials to terminals, the entire industrial chain has been affected to varying degrees.

Similarly, because of the weak market, the market is more interested in brand enterprises, and the polarization in the industry is becoming more and more serious.

Terminal growth lackluster upstream upstream downturn

The latest industry associations and customs data show that the first 5 months of this year

Domestic and foreign demand is not optimistic.

From the point of view of exports, 1-5 months, China's textile and apparel exports totaled $90 billion 642 million, an increase of 2% over the same period last year.

Among them, the export of textiles was US $28 billion 72 million, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year, and exports of clothing and accessories reached US $52 billion 570 million, an increase of 2.5% over the same period last year.

Compared with previous years, the growth rate has dropped sharply.

As the price of individual products has increased over the same period last year, the export volume of some varieties has declined.

The closing date of the 111st Canton Fair is still not optimistic.

According to statistics, the total turnover of textile and garment exhibition outlets is only 2 billion 290 million US dollars, down 12.3% from the same period last year, and the order is still the same as that in the second half of last year, which is still dominated by short and medium orders within 6 months.

According to foreign trade

Practitioners introduce that in recent years, with the appreciation of the RMB and the rise of various operating costs, the order of middle and low end textile products has been more and more serious in Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries.

Domestic demand is not enough to supply force in the face of continued downturn in external demand.

From the domestic market situation, in May, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles reached 72 billion yuan, which increased by 19% compared to the same period last year, but this figure dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared with April.

According to the China National Business Information Center, the retail sales of 50 major large retail enterprises in May increased by 10.3% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate also dropped from 14.6% in April.

Sun Huaibin, spokesman of China Textile Industry Federation, recently predicted that the textile industry in the second half of 2012 will be more severe. The high unemployment rate in the EU will lead to a long sluggish demand growth. There are many uncertainties in the main export markets such as the US and Japan.

Sun Huaibin also believes that if domestic and foreign cotton prices continue to have a large price difference, the domestic textile and clothing export situation will be even more severe.

As for the domestic consumer market, sun Huaibin expects that the retail sales of clothing domestic demand can still achieve the nominal 15%-20% growth rate, but the actual growth level of the domestic demand market in 2012 will be lower than that of the previous year.

In the end market demand is weak, at the same time, upstream raw material prices are naturally "sad everywhere".

At present, the spot price of cotton in China has been hovering around 18 thousand and 300 yuan / ton, which is lower than the cost of planting in many producing areas.

The main man-made fibers that are replaced by cotton are also sold at a moderate level.

The cotton mills and cloth factories whose profit margins are not high are even more difficult than the downstream textile and garment manufacturers.

Wang Qian, a senior cotton textile researcher and editor in chief of the first textile network, was more pessimistic when interviewed by reporters. He thought that the whole industry needed to wait for the trough to go out.

For the better.

Recently, however, the price of the international cotton contract has risen by about 20%.

There is also no lack of optimistic view in the market. Huatai Securities Research Report believes that from the data of textile and garment industry in May, the demand for downstream industries has been improving and stabilizing. The two quarter will be the annual low point of the key companies in the industry.

According to the State Securities Research Report, raw materials will rebound in August this year.

In August last year, cotton prices rebounded once the state announced that it would carry out an unlimited amount of temporary storage and storage of cotton.

Brand is king in weak market

Almost all the researchers in the textile and garment industry believe that the future domestic market will continue to focus on extension and expansion, and endogenous growth, that is, brand characteristics, is increasingly becoming the main driving force for the development of enterprises.

A textile and garment industry analyst told reporters that with the rapid expansion of online shopping scale, T-Shirts, jeans and other original retail prices are not high clothing has been a more obvious impact.

and

And other high-end clothing categories grow faster, brand enterprises are particularly benefited.

According to the relevant personages, the autumn and winter ordering of high-end men's clothing industry will meet the expectation or exceed the expectation.

Among them, seven wolves expect an increase of 30% in terms of order amount, an increase of 25% in reported birds, an increase of 30%-40% in canodie Road, and an increase of 20% in the year.

As a sub industry that has always been favored, the order of the brand home textile enterprises is also better.

Fuan ordered an increase of 30%.

The order amount of Roley home textiles increased by 23%-24% over the same period last year. Despite the weak market, Roley home textiles still has a large-scale expansion plan this year.

In addition, it is worth noting that the consumption potential of small and medium-sized cities is beginning to show.

In April, the growth rate of retail sales of large cities in two or three cities was over 16%, while that of the first tier cities was only 8.08%.

Obviously, the consumption escalation of the two or three tier cities has gone out of the independent market, and the fashionable leisure brand based on the three or four line city has found that the sum of the autumn and winter orders will increase by more than 50%.