June 2012 27 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[MEIKO

Overnight, in June 26th, despite the rebound in the CRB index, ICE

Futures are under the pressure of speculative selling.

But it did not break through the recent 65-75 cent oscillation area.

The market is relatively light. Investors are waiting for the US cotton export report and the actual coverage area. At present, the loose fundamentals are hard to get more impetus for cotton prices, and the trend of oscillation will continue in the near future.

On the news side, Thailand imported 34 thousand and 300 tons of cotton in May this year, an increase of 25.1% over the same period last year, the highest level in 14 months, mainly due to a fall in cotton prices and an increase in the import of cotton in the southern hemisphere.

In that month, imports of cotton and cotton in Brazil increased sharply, while imports to the US cotton fell by nearly 1/3 over the same period.

Nevertheless, the total number of cotton imported from Thailand in the first 10 months of this year still decreased by 30.8% compared with the same period last year. The decrease in imports of US cotton completely offset the increase in imports of other varieties.

On the international market, on the 26 day, the price of China's main imports of cotton imports generally rose, of which 1 cents were higher than that of the United States cotton and India cotton, while the West African cotton rose 0.5 cents.

From the spot market situation, the sharp decline of the cotton market before the day effectively stimulated the textile mill procurement, but the quantity was limited. On the one hand, the quota of textile mills was insufficient. On the other hand, the European and American economic atmosphere was not good enough to cause the textile orders to be lost, and the textile factories had not enough willingness to replenishment.

On the whole, the price of cotton is still rising.

Domestic market, 26, domestic cotton spot prices keep oscillating downward trend, spot market pactions remain cold.

Recently, most parts of North China have been reduced to moderate rain, and Cotton Drought and drought have been alleviated in some areas.

Spot quotation. In June 26th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 88.85 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 14873 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The Australian cotton quotation was 91.60, the general trade port delivery price was 15313 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 92.40, the general trade port delivery price was 15430 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 83.10, the general trade port delivery price was 13963 yuan / ton.

National cotton price A index 19421 yuan / ton, down 3 yuan; B index 18477 yuan, down 2 yuan.

Market analysis, due to the serious shortage of import quotas, the industry has constantly called for the issuance of sliding quota import quotas, attracting some international cotton traders to predict the trend of Zheng cotton is very optimistic.

1, macro uncertainties remain; 2, 7, and August supply and demand factors will be highlighted; 3, import quota will increase import pressure.

Firm pressure should not be underestimated.

Overnight cotton cotton bottom trend unchanged, Zheng cotton short rally trend support 1908519500 near the trend pressure.

Operation, the short line rally market 19085- gap rolling operation, trend judgement depends on 19500 near.

[GF futures] U.S. cotton fell 67 to 73 cents concussion

[market performance]

The ICE December cotton contract CTZ2 fell 1.85 cents, or 2.6%, at 68.20 cents a pound, trading between 68.04 and 70.30 cents in the trading session. In July, the cotton contract CTN2 fell 2.15 cents in July.

Yesterday, Zheng cotton's weak adjustment was reduced, the volume was reduced, the contract was 18100 yuan in July, the level was flat; in September, the contract was up to 15 yuan, with a total turnover of more than 19 hands.

[spot market]

The national cotton index has not changed much.

Two grade cotton 19500 yuan, three grade lint 18600 Yuan nearby.

[operation suggestion]

The US cotton fell from 67 to 73 U. S. in December, and the market is waiting for two government reports.

One is the weekly export sales report to be released by the US Department of agriculture on Thursday, which will measure the global cotton market.

The other is the annual planting data that will be released on Friday, which will lay the foundation for the number of planting in the year of 2012/13 sales. Zheng cotton continues to weaken. The September contract does not exclude the possibility of dropping the 17760 low in early June and is not too confident about the rebound.

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[Soochow futures] Zheng cotton market retreats to narrow down the line.

In June 26th, Zheng cotton market retreated to close down, and the main 1301 contract closed at 19140 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Volume reduced to 157074 hands, and positions decreased by 5832 to 275798.

From the ranking of 20 positions held by Zheng Mian, the number of long positions increased by 527 to 134246, and the total number of positions held in the short positions increased by 2352 to 169242.

There were 2993 cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengshang yesterday, 21 fewer than the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 128.

Overnight, the global economic turmoil triggered speculative selling to suppress US cotton. The ICE cotton contract in December fell 1.85 cents / pound or 2.64%. The market is waiting for the US cotton export report and planting report in the late week.

On the spot side, China's cotton price index slipped 30 yuan / ton to 18249 yuan / ton in June 26th.

The price of imported cotton FCindexM rose by 0.42 cents / pound to 82.15 cents / pound compared with the previous trading day. The cost of import was 1% yuan / 13264 yuan / ton, and the price of imported cotton was 13779 yuan / ton, and the imported cotton was sliding tax less than 4470 yuan of domestic cotton per ton.

In the downstream market, the price of KC32S in the downstream of June 26th was flat at 24606 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the JC40S price was flat at 30603 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

In June 26th, the price of polyester staple fiber decreased by 70 yuan / ton to 9630 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the market price of viscose staple fiber was 14650 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Related information: as of June 22nd, the ICE cotton speculative head clearance rate was 5.4%, 0.7 percentage points less than the previous week.

In June, the growth of cotton seedlings in China was better, and the cotton growth index in China was 104, which was better than 102 in the whole year.

Summary: Cotton fundamentals, domestic cotton prices continue to fall, polyester staple fiber and other cotton prices are also weak callback, is currently in the textile off-season, textile enterprises in the case of scarce orders, production reduction, production restriction operation.

The price of cotton yarn has been in a weak position. Recently, there has been a report that the turnover of listed garment companies has decreased year by year, and the pressure on inventory is relatively large, indicating that the domestic market is growing slowly.

In the 1-5 month of 2012, textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 2 trillion and 144 billion 931 million yuan in total industrial output value, up 11.81% from the same period last year, and the growth rate decreased by 1.3 and 18.34 percentage points respectively compared with 1-4 months and the same period last year. The value of industrial sales was 2 trillion and 87 billion 157 million yuan, an increase of 11.35% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.36 and 18.5 percentage points respectively compared with 1-4 months and the same period last year.

It shows that the slowdown of China's textile industry is still accelerating.

Last night, the market waited for the EU summit to be relatively cautious, but there was no hope for the summit to solve the practical European debt problem.

The U. S. cotton market was underpressed by speculative selling under the worry of macroeconomic turmoil. The main force of the December contract closed below 70 cents a pound, and the weak fundamentals will continue to challenge the 65 cents / pound support of the main force in December.

On Tuesday, Zheng cotton market retreated to a high level and closed down the Yin line. The price ended below the short-term average. It was slightly weaker. The KDJ index continued downward, and volume and position decreased.

Zheng cotton market today or continue to continue weak shock pattern.

The activist investors can go short and close to 19400 on the gap gap and stop 19450.