July 3, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20308 yuan / ton; 229 level 19423 yuan / ton; 328 level 18478 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17580 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9740 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15070 yuan / ton; C32S price 25670 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 2 day, domestic cotton spot prices were driven up by Zheng cotton.

In the case of no cotton price, the possibility of dumping or increasing import quotas is less likely.

3. imported cotton: in July 2nd, although the ICE futures rose continuously, the price of imported cotton in China's main port was not the same as that of the US. Cotton, cotton and cotton in Central Asia rose by about 1.8 cents, while India cotton and Brazil cotton rose 0.75 cents, while West African cotton generally fell 0.5 cents.

At present, the demand for cotton varieties and grades is hot and uneven. The price of high-grade cotton and cotton is relatively strong, while other varieties of grade are not very demanding, and the price is weakening.

In addition, the import enthusiasm of SMEs is suppressed by the quota quota.

4.USDA: in June 29th, the US Department of Agriculture released the actual coverage area report. In 2012, the US cotton sown area was 76 million 758 thousand mu, a decrease of 14% over the same period last year, of which the sown area of upland cotton was 75 million 330 thousand mu, a decrease of 14% compared with that of the previous year, and the planting area of Pima cotton was 1 million 428 thousand mu, a decrease of 24% over the same period last year.

5.ICE cotton: on 2 July, the US cotton continued to rise slightly. In December, the contract awarded 72.02 cents / pound, which is in the position of the 40 day moving average. Recently it should be concerned about this point. If the closing station is above the 40 day moving average, it will not rule out the possibility of striking the 60 day moving average.

Summary:

The recent cotton market and peripheral market more frequent news.

Several important achievements of the EU summit are more important news. Meanwhile, China's PMI data on the textile industry's new order index, production index, new export orders index and other major indicators continue to perform poorly.

From the operational level, the US cotton continued to rise slightly on the 2 th of July, and the contract was awarded 72.02 cents / pound in December, which is in the position of the 40 day moving average. Recently it should be concerned about this point. If the closing station is on the 40 day moving average, it will not rule out the possibility of striking the 60 day moving average.

Zheng Mian 1301 adopts the same way of thinking.

[German futures] difficult to build a solid rebound Zheng cotton

CF1301 opened higher on Monday, and CF1301 closed more than 17.5 million hands.

CF1301 closed at 19440 yuan / ton, up 270 yuan / ton, adding 13318 hand; in July 2nd, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 83.98 cents / pound, up 1.75 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13513 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14475 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 2nd news, cotton futures rose with the grain market on Monday, continuing last week's technical strength and recording a 12 day high position, but the market lacked information related to cotton.

The ICE12 cotton contract rose 0.97%, or 0.69 cents, at 72.02 cents a pound.

In July 2nd, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 7720 tons, a decrease of 4400 tons compared with the previous day, an increase of 120 tons in orders and an aggregate purchase of 126520 tons.

On the 2 day, the market was boosted by the rise in the external market, and the contracts were all higher.

On the basic level, although the European Union's surprise and the US agricultural report's profits make the market temporarily optimistic, it should not be overlooked that the downstream textile enterprises are gradually entering the traditional off-season, and the raw material consumption will be weakened, and their own stock consumption pressure will not be reduced.

Zhou Yizheng cotton tail city pull, recover the gap above, today will continue to repeat around the gap, there is no adverse noise on the macro side, and the area of cotton planting has decreased, Zheng cotton rebound is expected to continue.

Today's operation suggests that light duty operation, interval operation, CF1301 reference price interval is 19300-19700.

[MEIKO futures] weak consumption will restrict the trend of high cotton pressure to be tested.

Overnight, in July 2nd, ICE cotton futures fell 70 cents in December, and then rose sharply, closing prices higher than the 5, 10 and 20 day moving average.

The demand for cotton is still suppressed, the upward resistance of prices is strong, and the possibility of repeated oscillation is greater.

News, Shaoxing entry-exit inspection and Quarantine Bureau, the first quarter of this year, China's textile and clothing exports to the EU total value dropped 8.4% year-on-year, at the same time, the EU REPEX system on China's export clothing recall quantity is growing rapidly.

According to the statistics of China Textile Corporation, the EU REPEX system issued 317 product notified to China in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 112.75% over the same period last year, of which 70 items of textile and clothing products were announced, an increase of 337.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was very rapid.

In the international market, in July 2nd, although ICE futures rose continuously, the prices and prices of China's main ports of imported cotton were not consistent. The US cotton, Australia cotton and Central Asia cotton rose about 1.8 cents, while India cotton and Brazil cotton rose 0.75 cents, while West African cotton generally fell 0.5 cents.

At present, the demand for cotton varieties and grades is hot and uneven. The price of high-grade cotton and cotton is relatively strong, while other varieties of grade are not very demanding, and the price is weakening.

In addition, the import enthusiasm of SMEs is suppressed by the quota quota.

The domestic market, 2, the domestic cotton spot price driven by Zheng cotton rose slightly.

In the case of no cotton price, the possibility of dumping or increasing import quotas is less likely.

Under the guidance of the new year's purchase and storage policy, the domestic cotton price will probably rise slowly in the late stage, and the smooth process of cotton prices will be completed in the new and old year.

Spot quotation. In July 2nd, the price of C/A cotton in the United States was 90.10 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 15133 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The price of Australia cotton was 92.85, the general trade port delivery price was 15575 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton price was 92.35, the general trade port delivery price was 15492 yuan / ton, and the India cotton quotation was 83.35, which was generally RMB.

The port delivery price is 14068 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19380 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan; the B index was 18444 yuan, up 1 yuan.

Market analysis, after the mitigation of the macro risk stage, the obvious pressure of bulk commodities has been lighten up. The US cotton price has continued to rise slightly overnight, but it has not yet got rid of the bottom interval, mainly because the biggest factor restricting the cotton price is still the consumption depression. Therefore, the broad market will continue to wait for more information.

Zheng cotton supports 1920019725-19820 pressure interval.

On the operation, more than one single concern 19725-19820 pressure interval.

[Soochow futures] short term Zheng cotton is expected to continue to rebound.

In July 2nd, the initial market turnover of Zheng cotton market was light. After the coke trading, it rose late, closing at 19440, up 270 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

The turnover increased to 175868 hands, and the positions increased by 13318 to 282430.

From the ranking of 20 positions held by Zheng Mian, the number of long positions increased by 3081 to 134497, and the total number of positions held in the short positions increased by 5163 to 173163.

There were 2912 cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengshang yesterday, 28 fewer than the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 128.

Overnight, the ICE cotton contract continued to rebound, closing at 72.02 cents / pound, due to higher grain harvest and more technology in the US. It rose 0.69 cents / pound or 0.97% compared with the previous trading day in December.

On the spot side, China's cotton price index slipped 6 yuan / ton to 18158 yuan / ton in July 2nd.

FCindexM price rose 1.75 cents / pound to 83.98 cents / pound compared with the previous trading day, the import cost was 1% yuan customs price 13513 yuan / ton, according to the sliding price price 14475 yuan / ton, import cotton sliding tax per ton is lower than domestic cotton 3683 yuan.

In the downstream market, the price of KC32S in the downstream of July 2nd was flat at 24605 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the JC40S price was flat at 30580 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

In July 2nd, the price of PET staple fiber increased by 250 yuan / ton to 9680 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the price of viscose staple fiber was 14650 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the market confidence was improved.

Related information: the euro zone June Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index ended at 45.1, slightly higher than the initial value of 44.8, but the layoff rate was the fastest in two and a half years.

The American Institute of supply management June PMI data fell to its lowest level since July 2009, 49.7, the first contraction in nearly three years.

Summary: Cotton fundamentals, cotton spot price declines slow down, chemical fiber market production and sales booming situation.

On the international cotton market, India cotton and Pakistan cotton prices remained stable.

The dry weather in some parts of the world and the reduction of cotton planting area all over the world have certain support for cotton prices.

In the short term, Zheng cotton will continue to rebound when the EU summit brings favorable external popularity.

However, in June, China's PMI showed 50.2%, and the annulus ratio continued to weaken. At the same time, the new orders and new export orders index declined continuously for March, and the stock index reached a 7 month high, indicating that demand continued to fall.

The euro area's PMI data in June was 45.1, remaining the lowest since June 2009, and the PMI data of the US Supply Management Institute in June was the first contraction in three years.

As a result, the rebound and sustainability of Zheng cotton under the demand slack and the slack supply pattern are yet to be tested.

Technically, the main 1301 contract goes out of the three Lian Yang K-line form combination, the price is running on the short-term average, and the short-term average adhesion has a certain support for the price.

KDJ index upward, short term

Is expected to continue the rebound.

On the operation, yesterday's admission was more cautious, with a stop loss of 19100.