July 10, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20253 yuan / ton; 229 level 19382 yuan / ton; 328 level 18449 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17545 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9760 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14970 yuan / ton; C32S price 25400 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 9, the spot price of domestic cotton rose slightly.

Most cotton areas in the country are in normal weather and cotton is growing well. Most of Xinjiang's cotton enters flowering stage. Most of the cotton in the Yellow River basin and Yangtze River Basin are in bud to flowering stage.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, the average cotton yield per unit area is expected to increase slightly over the previous year.

7 to September is a critical stage for cotton growth. There may be speculation against adverse weather in the later stage.

3. imported cotton: the cotton trade in the bonded area has reached a new high in recent years. But due to the domestic quota restrictions and the continuous weakening of the textile market, the export of cotton has been delayed and the cost has been rising. Traders are suffering.

4.CPI innovation low: in July 9th, the National Bureau of statistics released data show that in June 2012, the national consumer price level (CPI) rose 2.2% year-on-year, or a 29 month low.

5.ICE cotton: in July 9th, ICE cotton was fluctuating in a narrow range, with a pressure of 73 cents above it, with 20 days and 40 days of average support underneath. 11 days USDA will issue monthly supply and demand reports.

Summary:

At present, the price of zhengmian has shifted slightly and the fundamentals have shown signs of stabilization.

In line with the recent macro interest in reducing interest rates, Zheng cotton is expected to hold the 40 day moving average.

On the operation, we may use the idea of interval oscillations and more operations, and take the 20 and 40 day moving average as the reference. The above concerns about the pressure of the 19650 early small highs.

11, USDA will issue monthly supply and demand report before that.

There is no big fluctuation in the market.

[German futures] wait for supply and demand report Zheng cotton weak shocks

Monday's CF1301 day shock, CF1301 closed more than 16.9 hands trading, holding a slight decrease.

CF1301 closed at 19490 yuan / ton, up 35 yuan / ton, reduced 5494 positions; in July 9th, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 84.25 cents / pound, fell 0 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13556 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14508 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 9th news, the ICE cotton futures rose slightly on Monday, helped by a small speculative buying. Analysts said investors would adjust their positions before the government's demand and supply report was released this week.

ICE cotton contract in December fell 0.04 cents, 70.62 cents per pound.

In July 9th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 11400 tons, a decrease of 2220 tons compared with the previous day, and the order quantity decreased by 60 tons, with a total purchase of 136100 tons.

On the basic level, the main countries of the economy generally cut interest rates, the United States non-agricultural data is poor, highlighting the market's future economic slowdown gradually escalating.

Judging from today's domestic commodity market, agricultural products are still showing strong rebound trend due to poor weather, and the cotton market has continued to increase slightly under its driving force.

Because of the strengthening of liquidity in the money market, the short-term market will more reflect the capital market, and the risk will increase.

On Monday, Zheng cotton was in a narrow concussion. This week's domestic economic data will be released successively, and the supply and demand report will also be released. It is expected that the pressure will be greater. There will be no more atmosphere on the macro level, and the main shock will be weak. Investors should not be blindly optimistic. Zheng cotton will temporarily shake up in the 19300-19700 interval, and 19300 is the track of the rebound channel, which needs attention.

Today's operation suggests that light duty operation, interval operation, CF1301 reference price interval is 19300-19600.

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[MEIKO futures] industry news stage vacuum Zheng cotton shock upward

Overnight, in July 9th, ICE futures trading was slack, the market wait-and-see sentiment was obvious, cotton prices rose after the rush, and finally closed at 7.

At present, the market is waiting for USDA to release the supply and demand report in July. Before the results are announced, it will be difficult for the market to change the trend of oscillation.

News, USDA (June 22-28) US cotton export report.

In the week of 2011/12, the net contracted volume of US cotton exports was 19 thousand tons, and the net signing volume of us land cotton exports was 2012/13 million tons in the year of 2011/12.

The export volume of us upland cotton exports is 47 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 11% over the previous week, an increase of 2% over the previous four weeks average.

In the international market, in July 9th, the price of imported cotton in China's main port generally increased by 0.25 cents.

Under the background of oversupply of cotton, the current global monetary easing policy is limited to the market, and the trend of China's cotton demand is decreasing. The market factors are likely to be some changes in the supply side of the new year and the implementation of the policy of purchasing and storage.

In addition, the recent import cotton trade is still flat, and the inquiry price of textile mills increased slightly after the cotton price fell again last week.

Domestic market, 9, domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly.

Most cotton areas in the country are in normal weather and cotton is growing well. Most of Xinjiang's cotton enters flowering stage. Most of the cotton in the Yellow River basin and Yangtze River Basin are in bud to flowering stage.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, the average cotton yield per unit area is expected to increase slightly over the previous year.

7 to September is a critical stage for cotton growth. There may be speculation against adverse weather in the later stage.

Spot quotation, July 9th, the US C/A cotton quotation is 89.65 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15059 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 92.40, the general trade port delivery price is 15500 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton price is 90.80, the general trade port delivery price is 15249 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation is 82.85, the general trade port delivery price 13984 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19384 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan; the B index was 18455 yuan, up 6 yuan.

Market analysis, cotton due to poor overall consumption capacity, the offensive is limited, and later influenced by the surrounding atmosphere, the passive component is relatively large.

From the industry perspective, firm market pressure is the key factor that restricts the price.

US cotton stage shock market,

The pressure is 19820 below.

Operation, Zheng cotton more than single holding, concerned about the 19000-19200 below the interval support.

[Huaan futures] Zheng cotton rebound journey remains

Key points:

1, CPI rose 2.2% in June, a 29 month low, and domestic inflation pressure basically eliminated. In June, PPI rose 2.1% to 31 month low, and the industrial boom declined and increased the market's worries about domestic economic growth.

2, in July, there was a shortage of imported cotton quotas in the market. Some enterprises began to consider the real estate cotton purchase. The purchase intention increased slightly, and the price of real estate cotton stabilized and picked up slightly.

3, the Ministry of Agriculture announced last week that China's trade deficit in agricultural products was 20 billion 280 million US dollars in the 1-5 month, an increase of 77.6% over the same period last year.

4, before May, nearly 20% of China's textile enterprises suffered losses, and the amount of losses doubled over the same period.

New York, July 9 (ICE) cotton futures rose slightly on Monday, helped by a small speculative buying. Analysts said investors would adjust their positions before the government's demand and supply report was released this week.

December cotton contract CTZ2 settlement price rose 0.07 cents, at 70.69 cents per pound, the intraday trading range of 70.35-72.60 cents.

Early comment: US non-agricultural data are slightly lower than market expectations. There is still no specific solution to the European debt problem, which makes the market's concerns about economic growth still continuing. In addition, China's PPI negative growth rate in June has increased further, indicating that the real economy boom has further declined.

Weak demand is a key problem that can not be effectively improved in the short term. Although the external atmosphere is not optimistic, the market speculation of agricultural products is still in short term. Oil and oil products are in the opposite direction, leading to the exclusive use of agricultural products. The quota of domestic cotton imports has been exhausted. Under the background of no more quotas, real estate cotton has become the only choice for textile mills, and cotton prices are likely to rise and fall.

Futures market, short-term Zheng cotton is still oscillating more partial view, operation, Zheng cotton 1301 contract early more single continue to hold cautiously, stop loss 19300 front-line, short term still can bargain short and more participation.