July 11, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20253 yuan / ton; 229 level 19382 yuan / ton; 328 level 18449 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17545 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9760 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14970 yuan / ton; C32S price 25400 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 10, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly.

It is reported that the quota of domestic cotton imports has been depleted. Under the background of no more quotas, real estate cotton has become the only choice for textile mills, and cotton prices are likely to rise and fall.

However, according to the national cotton market monitoring system, the supply of cotton is abundant and the proportion of cotton is not small. The difficulties of textile enterprises have increased the difficulty of cotton rebound.

3. imported cotton: in July 10th, the price of the main cotton imported from China basically remained stable, with only a few varieties rising.

It is understood that the current start-up of textile mills is not ideal, plus the quota is limited, even if the cotton is much cheaper than the national cotton, the volume of turnover is also very limited. Many textile mills expect the country to increase the quota to reduce production costs.

4. textile exports: in June 2012, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $22 billion 888 million, an increase of 4.83%, a decrease of 0.04% over the same period last year.

5.ICE cotton: in July 10th, the commodity market was suppressed by the strong US dollar. However, ICE cotton futures continued to oscillate. The monthly contracts were mixed. In December, the contracts were mainly fluctuated between 70-71 cents, and the turnover remained light.

At present, the market is waiting for the USDA7 month supply and demand report.

Summary:

At present, the price of zhengmian has shifted slightly, and the fundamentals have shown signs of stabilization. Zheng cotton is expected to hold the 40 day moving average.

On the operation, we may use the idea of interval oscillations and more operations, and take the 20 and 40 day moving average as the reference. The above concerns about the pressure of the 19650 early small highs.

On the 11 day, USDA will issue monthly supply and demand report. Before that, the cotton market will be difficult to fluctuate.

[MEIKO futures] real estate cotton becomes the leading role, cotton price fluctuation pressure measurement

Overnight, in July 10th, the commodity market was suppressed by the strong US dollar. However, the ICE cotton futures continued to oscillate. The monthly contracts were mixed. In December, the contracts fluctuated mainly between 70-71 cents.

At present, the market waiting for the USDA7 month supply and demand report, the global high storage pressure will be difficult to effectively alleviate, cotton prices above the resistance is still very large.

News reports, foreign reports, cotton harvest this year to Brazil cotton exports continue to maintain strong momentum.

In June this year, Brazil exported 36 thousand and 500 tons of cotton, the highest in June, 12 times the same period last year.

As of June, Brazil exported 1 million tons of cotton this year, an increase of 148.8% over the same period, including 326 thousand tons of exports to China, and a total blowout on exports from Turkey, Malaysia, Korea and Indonesia. The strong momentum of Brazil's cotton exports is expected to last until 2013.

In the international market, in July 10th, the quotations of China's main ports of imported cotton remained basically stable, with only a few varieties rising.

It is understood that the current start-up of textile mills is not ideal, plus the quota is limited, even if the cotton is much cheaper than the national cotton, the turnover is also very limited.

It is hoped that the state can increase the quota to reduce production costs.

As far as the current situation is concerned, the weak downstream demand will continue for some time, and the price of cotton will hardly rise.

Domestic market, 10, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly.

It is reported that the quota of domestic cotton imports has been depleted. Under the background of no more quotas, real estate cotton has become the only choice for textile mills, and cotton prices are likely to rise and fall.

However, according to the national cotton market monitoring system, the supply of cotton is abundant and the proportion of cotton is not small. The difficulties of textile enterprises have increased the difficulty of cotton rebound.

Spot quotation. In July 10th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 89.60 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 15051 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The Australian cotton quotation was 92.35, the general trade port delivery price was 15492 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 90.80, the general trade port delivery price was 15249 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 83.85, the general trade port delivery price was 14137 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19388 yuan / ton, up 4 yuan; the B index was 18458 yuan, up 3 yuan.

Market analysis, medium and large textile enterprises start up rate of 50%-70%, the industry's weak pattern has not changed, the more serious pressure is the key factor restricting the height of the price.

Overnight, the strength of the US dollar has brought pressure on commodities, and the trend of the US cotton 70 platform is shaking. Zheng cotton's short line supports 19365, and the key pressure is 19820.

On the operation, Zheng cotton was more cautious, holding a break from more than 19300 single sidelines.

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[German futures] waiting for supply and demand report Zheng cotton urgently need guidance

Tuesday's CF1301 day shock, CF1301 closed more than 21.8 hands trading, holdings increased slightly.

CF1301 closed at 19500 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, increased 8522 positions; in July 10th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 84.25 cents / pound, fell 0 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13556 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14508 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 10th news, ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher on Tuesday, and analysts said that a small speculative buying before the USDA report provided support.

USDA will announce crop reports on Wednesday.

ICE December cotton contract settlement price rose 0.03 cents, 70.72 cents per pound.

In July 10th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 12980 tons, an increase of 1580 tons from the previous day, an increase of 940 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 137040 tons.

On the basic side, cotton spot consumption is still weak, and high end inventory and warehouse receipt pressure continue to restrain high cotton prices.

It is expected that the US Department of agriculture will announce the Global Forecast of cotton supply and demand on 11 may be better than expected, and the market is expected to continue to rebound in the short term.

On Tuesday, Zheng cotton was in a narrow concussion. This week's domestic economic data will be released successively, and the supply and demand report will also be released. It will be dominated by weak shocks. Investors should not be blindly optimistic. Zheng cotton will temporarily oscillate in the 19300-19700 interval, and 19300 will be under the path of rebound.

Today's operation suggests that light warehouse operations can be more appropriate at low level, and the CF1301 reference price range is 19300-19600.

[Huaan futures] Zheng cotton pressure remains high and needs kinetic energy.

Key points:

1, the yield of Spain's 10 year treasury bonds exceeds 7%, and the European debt crisis is heating up. The European debt issue has once again become the focus of the market.

2. In June, the trade surplus of US $31 billion 700 million, an increase of 42.9%, greatly exceeded market expectations and hit a new high in three and a half years, thanks to a sharp fall in commodity and energy prices.

3. Imported cotton stocks in Qingdao and other bonded areas are high.

4, in the first five months of this year, the profits of textile enterprises decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period last year. Due to the shrinking demand and rising costs, Chinese textile enterprises will continue to face challenges in the second half of the year.

New York's July 10th cotton futures edged higher on Tuesday, analysts said, and analysts said that a small amount of speculative buying before the USDA report provided support for ICE.

USDA will publish its crop report on Wednesday.

The December cotton contract settlement price rose 0.03 cents, 70.72 cents per pound, and the intraday trading range was 70.57-71.90 cents.

Early comment: the euro zone has reached an agreement on the details of the Spanish banking rescue, and has promised to buy Spanish bonds when necessary. Recently, a series of actions made by the eurozone and the European Central Bank to solve the European debt problem have proved the determination and confidence of Europe to save the euro. However, the market has turned its attention to the economic growth of China and the United States. At home, a large number of imported cotton hoarding in the bonded area, the large difference between the inside and outside cotton and the weak demand for the downstream will always pressure the rise of cotton prices. However, the new year's planting area has been greatly reduced and the recent bad weather has provided new support for the new cotton.

Tuesday

The two test of 19600 above the pressure level above, but did not stand on the 19600, the early stage more than just a gradual profit margin to leave.

On the operation, Zheng Mian 1301 continued to make profits at the top 19500, and waited for the buying opportunities below 19300.