July 16, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[MEIKO

Overnight, the US and China's economic data have effectively stimulated the market, investors have reduced the euro's short bet and pushed the euro forward. Meanwhile, the US stock market has seen a strong rebound since May, and commodity futures generally rose.

Affected by this, speculative buying took place in the ICE cotton market, pushing cotton prices to more than 72 cents and increasing volume.

The rebound in cotton prices has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the market, so we should not be overly optimistic about the sustained rebound in cotton prices. However, the rare drought in the US grain growing area for 25 years will provide support for the market.

News, after the downturn of June, the monsoon in India has finally begun to strengthen in the last week. Rainfall has now covered most parts of India. Favorable rainfall will be coming in the west, East and northeast of China in the next few days.

India's cotton output will decline. The US Department of agriculture's monthly report in July will reduce cotton production in India by 220 thousand tons next year.

In the international market, in July 13th, the price of imported cotton in China was generally down, and most varieties fell by about 1 cents.

USDA data showed that the US cotton contract volume exceeded 20 thousand tons last week, but China only contributed 5000 tons, and also cancelled 5000 tons of US cotton contracts this year.

The domestic market, according to the national cotton market monitoring system monitoring, recently some provinces in the mainland high-grade cotton quotes appear to rise or fall characteristics, but the number of pactions has not yet effectively followed up.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in June, China imported 476 thousand tons of cotton in that month. The ring ratio dropped slightly, but it remained at a high level. Compared with the domestic cotton less than 700 thousand tons per month, outer cotton continued to maintain the main position of domestic cotton spinning, and the pressure of low price cotton on the domestic market is still there.

Spot quotation. In July 13th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 88.85 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 14940 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The Australian cotton quotation was 90.60, the general trade port delivery price was 15216 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 90.05, the general trade port delivery price was 15125 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 83.10, the general trade port delivery price was 14026 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19394 yuan / ton; the B index is 18467 yuan, rising by 1 yuan.

Market analysis, since the beginning of July, since the easing of the macro pressure, the price of cotton has shifted slightly upward, but the weak pattern of the industry has not changed. The serious pressure of the firm market is still a key factor restricting the price of the futures price. But the expectation of the next year's purchase and storage and the improvement of the supply and demand structure will be more vibrant than the current contract.

Zheng cotton is concerned about the pressure above 19650.

On the operation, we should hold more carefully and look at pressure 19650.

Friday's CF1301 day shock, CF1301 closed more than 10.3 hands trading, holdings increased slightly.

CF1301 closed at 19490 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton, increased 4478 positions; in July 13th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 84.29 cents / pound, fell 0.68 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13562 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14515 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 13th news, ICE's cotton futures closed higher on Friday, and brokers say that the underlying tone of strong financial markets has led to speculative buying.

ICE cotton contract in December rose 2.73 cents, or about 4%, at 72.66 cents per pound.

In July 13th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 18920 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous day, an increase of 4620 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 149340 tons.

Basically, the cotton spot market is still trading lightly, and the consumption demand of cotton spinning enterprises has not made much progress. From the perspective of the whole industry chain, the current downturn is still in the doldrums.

On the same day, China's GDP data in the two quarter basically met market expectations. It was better than expected from fixed assets investment, retail sales of social consumer goods and industrial added value. From the economic environment, there will be a rebound in the commodity market next week if there is no new profit in the weekend.

On Friday, Zheng cotton was in a narrow concussion, and there was little left space. The policy has begun to be more favorable. The macro data has been out of the air. As a good way to do more along the rebound channel, Zheng cotton is expected to continue to rebound, and 19450 is the path of the rebound.

Today's operation recommendations.

Operation, multi single continued, CF1301 reference price interval of 19400-19600.

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[Huaan futures] the price of zhengmian oscillation will be higher or higher.

Key points:

1, Xinjiang Awati, which is known as "China Cotton capital", has been attacked by a rare hail weather, and more than 5 mu of cotton have been affected.

2, global stock markets and oil prices are rising, and China's economic data ease concerns about China's potential hard landing or further damage to global economic growth.

External trend: New York July 13th news, ICE cotton futures rose on Friday, broker said because of the strong financial market tone triggered speculative buying.

The cotton contract in December rose 2.73 cents, or about 4%, at 72.66 cents a pound, according to Thomson Reuters data. The contract was the highest in about a month. The intraday trading range was 70.18-72.76 cents.

Concern at the same time, at the same time, at the same time, domestic and foreign governments strive to improve the real economy through the policy and financial aspects to improve the real economy. Meanwhile, ICE cotton and Zheng Mian also have a weak bottoming up. However, the weak demand of the downstream textile enterprises is difficult to improve in the short term. If the cotton prices rise sharply, the downstream enterprises will be unable to bear. In the long run, loose supply and weak demand will continue to put pressure on cotton prices. However, in the context of short-term weather and macro expectations, Zheng cotton will maintain a slow recovery, but it will not be too high. It can still be held in the early stage, and it can still be held in the early stage. The off site funds can still be set up for more than one single purchase. The main target of zhengcotton is 1301, the first target position is 19600, and the second target is 20000. Early comment: recent drought in the United States and heavy rain in China triggered the market's cotton production in the new year.

On the operation, Zheng cotton 1301, the earlier period more single continued holding, the dips can still be more single, the first goal of 19600.

[Wanda futures] economic data better than expected, US cotton rebound

China announced the two quarter GDP on Friday, although the data show that China's economic downturn is obvious. In the first half of this year, GDP hit a new low since 2009, but this alleviated the worries of China's hard landing. The international financial market was boosted on Friday, and the ICE cotton contract in December was once again stabilized by 70 cents per pound, ending 2.72 cents to 72.66 cents / pound. The continuation of the rebound trend has not changed, and there is a trend of continuing to challenge 75 cents / pound pressure level.

However, the macro face is dragged down by the economic recession in the euro area. China and the world economy have a further downward trend. Basic consumption continues to shrink and supply is seriously oversupplied. Cotton prices do not have the basis and power to rise substantially. In the future, they will continue the horizontal pattern and focus on the pressure level of 75 cents / pounds.

Friday ICE cotton Zhongyang closed, the main contract in December is still stable 70 cents / pound and the short-term average, the KD index in the high position once again formed a long queue trend, MACD index continues to rise in a row, its red column growth, rebound will continue, December contract is expected to challenge 75 cents / pound pressure level.

Although China's GDP data eased China's hard landing on Friday, a number of data hit a new low since the financial crisis in 2009, and China's economy has declined significantly.

although

Coming into the new year, the price of 20400 yuan / ton will support the cotton price, while domestic resources will be reduced. But in June, China imported 470 thousand tons of cotton. At the same time, there was a rumor of dumping and storage. There were still variables in the supply side, and there was a certain risk in the supply of hype.

On the other hand, the export is shrinking, the consumption is sluggish, and the stock of downstream cotton yarn and grey cloth remains high, and the market's affordability to cotton price is limited. This will restrict Zheng cotton's rebound space.

In this case, the cotton price will be maintained at a shock pattern. The 1301 contract will run between 19400-19700 yuan / ton, 19600 yuan / ton line can be added to the blank list, and the short-term target is 19400 yuan / ton line, such as cotton price breaks through 19700 yuan / tonne pressure level, and the single stop loss is off the sidelines.