PTA Rebound Cycle Continues

Since Monday, the PTA1301 contract has been under technical pressure at the 60 day moving average, and the price has dropped sharply. However, under the support of many factors such as the loosening of policy, the rebound of oil price and the start of the stocking period, the PTA rebound cycle has not ended.

After short-term adjustment, PTA will continue to run upwards.

Risk aversion affects market

In order to avoid further economic downturn, the global policy loosening pattern has been formed, and the capital market is facing the combined influence of macroeconomic expectations, monetary policy expectations and risk events expectations.

Under the background of policy easing, the time window for high-risk assets to stage a gradual easing of risk aversion is likely to rebound.

The most likely trend in the commodity market is to build up the bottom in the early three quarter and then recover slowly.

At present, on the one hand, the loosening of global policies and the phasing down of risk aversion will provide support for commodity prices; on the other hand, the real economy is hard to see clearly and rapidly improve, and the rise in commodity prices is limited and will not be achieved overnight. The rapid conversion of risk aversion will lead to a rapid market turn.

PTA's recent trend has also preliminarily verified the above judgment. Domestic and foreign policy easing and phasing mitigation of risk aversion have provided support for PTA's upward oscillation.

Stocking demand starts, polyester stock down

The rebound in demand also laid the foundation for the PTA rebound.

Since the end of June, under the impetus of "buying up or not buying" and the start of stocking demand, polyester stocks have continued to fall, and this week is expected to continue to decline.

Facing the autumn production peak, it is the pition stage of polyester and cloth production from off-season to peak season. Enterprises need to reserve raw materials ahead of time, and the loom operating rate is expected to rise in the middle of 8.

Therefore, the demand for replenishment downstream is not yet over.

In addition, autumn and winter

The consumption of textile materials needed for production is higher than that in spring and summer, and textile demand in the second half of this year will be better than that in the first half.

Crude oil starts running horizontally

At present, the international oil price has four supporting factors: first, the short-term risk reduction of European debt reduces the risk aversion in the three quarter; second, the global policy tends to be loose; third, the geopolitical crisis in Iran, Syria and other regions remains unchanged; fourth, the consumption of gasoline in the United States has entered the summer peak season, and the main oil producing area of Mexico Bay has gradually entered a high incidence period of hurricanes.

Of course, the current oil price is also facing three major negative tests: first, the global economic downturn has not yet been turned, and there is uncertainty about the seasonal warming of crude oil demand; second, when the US presidential election enters a critical period, Obama will suppress oil prices or increase; third, the US dollar medium term strong pattern will compress the oil price up space.

In the face of collisions between many factors, it is expected that the crude oil futures price for NYMEX8 months will be arranged horizontally in the range of 80 to 90 dollars.

In the medium term, there will be limited space under the crude oil price, or PX will also be supported by cost.

Positions remain high

Since the beginning of June, the total position of PTA in Zhengshang has remained at a high level of about 600 thousand.

And during this period, PTA

The bottom picked up and the volume of pactions increased significantly.

The cooperation of price, volume and position shows that the market is still in a strong pattern.

In addition, as of July 18th, the top 20 positions had been reduced from 67117 to 16378 at the beginning of the month, and the ratio of short to short positions increased from 0.72 to 0.91.

This change may be attributed to the market expectation that the overall operation of PTA industry chain will be improved.

The amount of registered warehouse receipts can also be used as a reference for trading.

As of July 18th, the total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of PTA in Zhengshang was only 2402, which is basically the same as that in early June.

In the face of continuous negative cash flow, PTA manufacturers' willingness to hedge is obviously not high.

Investment suggestions and risk factors

On the whole, the 8000 point becomes the medium and short-term pressure level of the TA1301 contract, but

The rebound period is not over, and is expected to rise again after the short term adjustment.

Therefore, after the release of market pressure, the 7500 point or a better building point is suggested to take the 40 day line as a stop loss.

Downstream demand, cotton (19405, -60.00, -0.31%) price and policy trend are factors that investors need to pay close attention to.