The Cotton Market Continues To Be Turbulent And Unstable

Recently, domestic spin The off-season characteristics of the market are obvious, and cotton yarn prices continue to fall. The domestic cotton spot market continued its steady trend, and the prices of Zheng cotton futures and matchmaking market rose as a whole. On July 13, 32 pure cotton combed yarns were quoted at 25380 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.1% from last week, and 4920 yuan/ton, down 16.2% year on year; The quotation of polyester staple fiber was 9710 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.5% from last week, down 2890 yuan/ton or 22.9% year on year.

The national cotton price B index, representing the average sales price of standard grade cotton in the mainland, was 18467 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.1% from last week, and down 3532 yuan/ton or 16.1% year on year; The average sales price of Xinjiang standard lint was 18751 yuan/ton, the same as last week, with a year-on-year drop of 4651 yuan/ton, or 19.9%. The contract settlement price of Zhengzhou cotton futures in September 2012 was 18745 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.3% from last week, down 2790 yuan/ton or 13% year on year; The average contract price of the electronic matchmaking transaction in the national cotton trading market in September 2012 was 18890 yuan/ton, up 253 yuan/ton or 1.4% from last week, and down 1711 yuan/ton or 8.3% year on year.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter increased by 7.6% year on year, the lowest level since the second quarter of 2009. From the three aspects required for economic growth, namely, export, consumption and investment, China's export grew by 9.2% year-on-year from January to June, and the growth rate dropped by 14.8 percentage points year-on-year; The total retail sales of consumer goods excluding price factors actually increased by 11.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points; Fixed asset investment, excluding price factors, increased by 18% in real terms. The above data show that investment is still an important driving force for economic growth in the case of insufficient external demand and slowing domestic demand.

In the middle and late July, the State Council's meeting on the mid year economic situation is about to be held. With the decline of inflation, the national macroeconomic policy may gradually transition to the key "stable growth" stage, and the fine-tuning of fiscal and monetary policies will be further strengthened. Recently, the short-term reverse repo operation of the central bank has expired intensively, and the central bank may reduce the deposit reserve ratio to cooperate with interest rate reduction. Fundamentally, the reduction of national cotton supply pressure and the expectation of supporting the market effect of the national purchase and storage policy in the new year are the main factors supporting the stable operation of the domestic cotton market, but the light procurement of downstream textile enterprises will restrict the upward space of cotton prices. To sum up, the domestic cotton market is expected to maintain a stable operation pattern in the near future.

Influenced by factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar, the improvement of drought in major cotton producing areas in the United States, and the light signing of US cotton export contracts, cotton futures prices in New York again closed below 70 cents. On the evening of July 13, the general strengthening of the peripheral grain market led to the rebound of cotton futures prices in New York. On July 13, the settlement price of New York cotton futures contract in October 2012 was 71.76 cents/pound, up 1.2 cents/pound or 1.7% from last week. The international cotton index (M) representing the average landed price of imported cotton in China's main port is calculated at 1% tariff, which is converted into RMB 13564 yuan/ton of import cost, down 43 yuan/ton from last week, or 0.3%, lower than 4903 yuan/ton in the domestic market, and the price difference is 61 yuan/ton higher than last week; According to the sliding allowance tax, the import cost converted into RMB was 14567 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 0.2% from last week, lower than 3900 yuan/ton in the domestic market, and the price difference increased 52 yuan/ton from last week.