Apparel Textile A Shares And Hong Kong Stocks Were Slightly Better Than The First Quarter In The Two Quarter.

Key points of basic data: June

Consumer demand is basically stable, while jewelry consumption demand continues to improve.

In June, the growth rate of clothing retail sales of 50 key retail enterprises increased slightly from last month (2.6 percentage points to 12.5%), but after excluding the holiday disturbance factors, the growth rate of clothing retail sales was basically stable, while the retail sales of jewelry retail sales continued to increase (up 1.6 percentage points from last month to 19.8%); in June, the export volume of textiles and clothing increased by -0.4% and 6.4% respectively, down 7.5 and 1.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month; prices of textile raw materials and major textiles continued to fall (3% of the cotton prices fell, the prices of chemical fibers fell sharply, and the prices of yarns and grey fabrics also fell).

A share companies: Despite the two quarter retail operating pressure, but the other factors of interference reduction, the terminal sales and the same store growth performance is slightly better than the first quarter, but some companies are slightly lower than the first quarter for other reasons.

Judging from the situation of China Daily, it is generally in line with expectations and slightly below expectations.

Slightly more than expected is: fuanna, nine herd king and seven wolves; slightly lower than expected companies include: Luo Lai, Semir, Mei bang, Meng Jie, Hinur, hundred round trousers industry and Huafu color spinning.

Hong Kong stocks and overseas companies: Hong Kong stock Brand Company in the 1 quarter of this year, the same store growth level is generally low, and the autumn and winter order growth will be significantly slower than in spring and summer; but in the 2 quarter, some Brand Company growth in the same store has improved (Sports brand is also the case), especially BELLE is better, but still lower than last year's average level.

Daphne 2 quarter

It is worth noting that sales growth in the same store is higher under the discount stimulation, but the average price has declined. Under the co extrusion of the cost increase, the net interest rate has dropped the number of low units compared with the previous year. The growth of the same store in the 2 quarter of overseas Brand Company has slowed down compared with the 1 quarter, and the apparel terminal consumption situation is more severe. However, some of the clothing retail segment industry in the United States has improved in May.

Trend review: in the first half of July, the apparel home textile index decreased by 2.1% in absolute terms, or increased by 1.6%; the textile manufacturing index decreased by 4%, and the relative decline was 3.6%; the larger A share companies were Pathfinder, search for YOUNGOR and so on, and the bigger ones were 100 yuan, Mei bang and Luo Lai. The larger H-share Brand Company were Li bang, the trend and the 31st degree, and the larger ones were mainly Hendry, Prada and baozi.

Investment strategy: the deterministic growth of the performance of the early brand clothing companies made the industry eye-catching and the average valuation level exceeded the previous stage.

By the early July, most of the reports were in line with expectations or slightly below expectations, and due to the overall pressure on the operation environment this year, the possibility of follow-up business exceeding expectations is small, and valuations to the position at that time, we think we need to consolidate in the short term.

In the first half of July, the valuation of the whole plate dropped, which accords with our judgement of the recent consolidation of the industry.

Based on the consolidation of the recent valuation, we can enhance the margin of valuation and will be more conducive to steady gains in the second half of the year.

In the second half of the year, we will focus on combining the development stages of the subdivision industry, selecting the enterprises with strong retail capability and strong channel control potential.

The key recommendation companies are LAN Zi, fuanna, Pathfinder, seven wolves, nine Mu Wang and card slave road.

In addition, AOKANG, search special, happy bird, American bond, Luo Lai and Lao Fengxiang can give some attention.

Risk warning: economic slowdown affects consumer demand; cost increases can reduce profitability; external demand is sluggish.

。