The Downturn In Consumption Will Adversely Affect The Growth Rate Of The Textile Industry In The Second Half Of The Year.

China

The production situation of the industry in May was relatively stable, and the export situation was generally not good, but the export situation of the largest export area improved slightly.

In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 1 trillion and 671 billion 480 million yuan, up 13.80% from the same period last year, which is similar to the lowest level in the financial crisis.

With the direct stimulation of consumption policy and the indirect stimulation of monetary policy, the possibility of a sharp decline in consumption growth is unlikely.

Consumption continues to decline and corporate profits decline.

Industrial data in May 2012 showed that the export volume of cotton yarn was 46 thousand and 400 tons, up 35.18% over the same period last year, and the export amount of cotton yarn was 230 million US dollars, up 10.44% compared to the same period last year. The export of garments and accessories reached 12 billion 607 million US dollars, up 7.57% over the same period last year.

At the end of May, the textile industry PPI was -4.61, slightly higher than that of the previous month; textile and clothing shoes and hats PPI was 2.41, and continued to fall; sales terminal, textile terminal retail price index decreased rapidly with the cost of production end, and the terminal price index of clothing shoes and hats has been high.

。

The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of main business revenue, operating cost and operating profit of textile enterprises has decreased significantly since 2011, and the growth of operating income in May is slower than that before April.

The growth rate of profits has dropped sharply, and is now approaching zero growth.

The industrial sales value and delivery value of textile enterprises also showed an equal decline, especially the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value was approaching the critical point, indicating that the export situation worsened more seriously, and domestic production and sales were better than exports.

Market trend

June

Down 6.19%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 6.48%, Shen Wan textile and garment industry fell 5.62%, the shwan textile manufacturing industry index fell 8.41%, the Shen Wan clothing textile industry index fell 3.40%.

In June, the first increase in the company's shares (002517) announced that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies rose by 160%-180% over the same period last year, as its subsidiaries received financial assistance.

Men's leading companies, especially the seven main wolves (002029) and nine Mu Wang (601566) as the representative of the main business casual men's clothing companies rose significantly, fashion and leisure industry also eye-catching.

However, most of the companies with larger declines are export oriented textile enterprises and accessories manufacturers.

investment strategy

As of June, industry data showed that the textile and garment industry was relatively stable in production, and the overall situation of exports was not good, but the export situation of the largest export areas improved slightly, consumer data did not improve, and the profitability of the textile industry continued to decline.

The textile manufacturing industry is greatly influenced by the export environment, and it has not been in a good trend in the short term. Most of the achievements in the first half of the apparel textile industry have been locked from last year's orders, and the growth is still relatively high. However, the sales figures in the first half of the year are not ideal, which will inevitably affect the order meeting in the second half of the year, thus affecting the growth rate of the second half and next year.

Maintenance of textiles

The overall "neutral" rating of the industry.

We are optimistic about the emerging industries, as well as the large stocks with a small change in the early stage.