Cotton Prices South High North Low Xinjiang Cotton Warehouse Receipts Favored

At present, compared with spot prices, futures warehouse cotton has a certain price advantage, so we can focus on cross market arbitrage opportunities.

Since mid July, Zheng cotton has continued to reduce the warehouse oscillation finishing market. The main CF1301 contract runs between 19105 yuan and 19620 yuan per ton, and has been launched many times. Textile industry The downturn of the boom did not effectively break through the pressure of 19620 yuan / ton. At present, the spot cotton market is relatively stable, and low price warehouse cotton resources can be reduced, so we can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities.

Cotton prices South High North low Xinjiang cotton warehouse receipts favored

In the near future, the price of cotton in the domestic spot shows a "South High North low" situation. Jiangsu Hubei, Anhui and other areas of futures warehouse cotton has been favored by domestic textile enterprises and trading enterprises. According to the author's understanding, because the quality of imported cotton has decreased and the price has risen recently, and the price of Xinjiang cotton is relatively high, the enterprises hope to buy cotton through the purchase of real estate cotton, while the shortage of high-grade resources in the spot market has attracted the attention of the market. Futures warehouse receipt currently located in the southern delivery bank Cotton prices rise Faster, low price warehouse cotton resources are hard to find.

After the delivery of the contract in July, the number of warehouse receipts in Zheng cotton futures continued to decrease. As of July 23rd, 2643 cotton warehouse receipts, plus effective forecasts, estimated that the total amount of warehouse receipts was about 102 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 25 thousand tons over the same period in June. Among them, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 583 compared with the same period last month, and the effective forecast volume of warehouse receipts was reduced by 53 from last month.

From the perspective of warehouse receipt structure, the number of Xinjiang cotton is 446, accounting for 18.1% of the total amount of warehouse receipts. From the cotton grade, 3 and more cotton accounted for about 21% of the total warehouse receipts.

At present, the price of Xinjiang grade 3 cotton is 19200 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is around 19100, but the enterprises are more reluctant to sell, and take more wait-and-see attitude and unwilling to make the price. From the quotation of futures, spot and other cotton spot centralized trading market, we can see that futures prices are at a level or low level compared with other market prices, and have certain advantages. In addition, the system of premium and discount for futures warehouse cotton will give birth to Xinjiang The warehouse warehouse cotton and 2 grade cotton and 29mm warehouse warehouse cotton have a certain arbitrage space with other market cotton, and are sought after by the market.

Impact of reserve policy on futures contract spreads

From July 17th to 19, at the Ji'nan meeting, the head of the Central Cotton store said that it would continue to open up the storage in 2012 and adjust the details of the execution of the purchase and storage so as to make it easier for enterprises to pay for the storage. In addition, the responsible person expects that the number of storage will be over 2011 in 2012, and the possibility of first rejection will be greater in 2012. At present, the May contract is 200 yuan higher than the January contract price. If the state stores and stores it again after large scale, the May contract price may become the annual high point. If the market remains weak after the purchase and storage, or if the State adopts the policy of collecting new cotton and throwing cotton at the same time, the situation of premium rise in January may change in May.

On the whole, under the influence of throwing and storing, Zheng cotton futures have limited fluctuation space, but the spot price is relatively stable. Futures warehouse cotton has a certain price advantage. It can focus on cross market arbitrage opportunities and the intertemporal arbitrage opportunities under policy changes.