July 30, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Huaan

Key points:

1, the European central bank governor at the recent investment conference publicized the euro to boost the confidence of the peripheral stock at all costs, but the specific measures need to be observed.

2, cotton prices continued to decline for three trading days, which led textile mills not to rush to buy the spot, only a small number of pactions were mainly forwards.

According to the statistics of China's national cotton market monitoring system, as at the beginning of July, there were at least 1 million 70 thousand tons of inventory in China's bonded areas, of which about 800 thousand tons of imported cotton were waiting for customs clearance.

External trend: New York, July 27th, cotton futures on the ICE were flat to a modest increase on Friday, worried by the drought in India, the world's largest cotton producer, and the world's largest cotton trader Allenberg's expectation that China will continue to increase its cotton stocks next year will be a relief from global oversupply.

Cotton futures rose more than 2% in early trading, all of which reversed earlier this week's decline, but the rally lost momentum, because the euro has shrunk some of its gains against the US dollar, which has again become the focus of concerns over the deepening European debt crisis.

The cotton contract for December was 71.45 cents a pound and almost 71.39 cents a pound on Thursday.

Early comment: Recently, rumors about throwing and storing were heard again and again, the market sentiment was unstable, and the European debt crisis was spreading. Last week, Zheng cotton continued to fall, and the main CF1301 contract reached a minimum of 19050. In terms of technology, there was strong support in the vicinity of 19100.

From the point of view of the new annual limit price, the insiders still do not take the market down. They believe that the latter 20400 is still the effective direction of the market. The long and medium term trend remains unchanged, but the pressure on port inventory, the possibility of dumping and storage, and the improvement of the downstream downturn are not so great.

On the operation, Zheng cotton main force 1301 contract, many single continue to hold, break down 19000 stop loss, the upper resistance position will be closed by lots to protect profits.

[MEIKO futures] free trade zone enters slow, slow cotton trend weak

Overnight, the ICE futures opened lower in July 27th, and the rally was steady. Then the Bulls suddenly pulled the December contract to 72.91 cents, but the sale was late, causing the cotton price to shrink, and the market continued to oscillate between 70-75 cents.

At present, drought in India may lead to the decline of cotton production in the country as one of the few favorable factors in the market. In addition, although the US dollar index continues to fall, the European debt crisis is likely to put the euro in a difficult position again.

On the news side, from the statistics of some foreign businessmen arriving in Qingdao, the shipment volume and arrival volume of cotton in August will be significantly reduced. The number of bonded cotton in the bonded warehouse of the port of Qingdao is relatively large. The number of imported cotton companies is even larger than that expected. Some import companies even estimate nearly 1 million tons. However, according to the number of bonded cotton, some foreign manufacturers estimate that the number of bonded cotton in the warehouse will reach 65-70 tons, and the maximum will not exceed 750 thousand tons.

In the international market, on the 27 day, the price of China's main cotton imports rose generally, and the cotton varieties such as the United States rose 2 cents, while West African cotton and India cotton rose 1 cents.

Judging from the market situation,

It is common for enterprises to stop production, and there is no sign of improvement in downstream demand.

Although some cotton producing areas appear to be rising due to poor weather, we believe that under the background of global economic decline and insufficient demand, cotton prices will not have much room for further growth.

Domestic market, 27, domestic cotton spot prices stabilized.

At present, the outlook for the global economic environment is rather pessimistic. The bear market in the cotton market will continue. Now, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is so great that it depends entirely on the state's purchasing and storage support. The policy of purchasing and storage has become the sole sustenance of cotton enterprises, while the price of textile products has been regulated by the market and the market is bad, which has exacerbated the crisis of the domestic textile industry.

Spot quotation. In July 27th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 88.35 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 15126 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The Australian cotton quotation was 92.60, the general trade port delivery price was 15679 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 91.60, the general trade port delivery price was 15546 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 85.60, the general trade port delivery price was 14782 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19436 yuan / ton; the B index is 18524 yuan.

Market analysis, industry demand remains low, and domestic textile enterprises are struggling. Due to the shortage of imported cotton quota, many downstream enterprises have imported cotton yarn in a large number, and put pressure on middle road links, which has restricted domestic cotton consumption enthusiasm.

But after all, autumn and winter textile delivery period has been added to the next year's unlimited purchase and storage of good, but also brought some support to cotton prices.

Therefore, it is possible to continue to maintain the range concussion and pay attention to macro orientation.

Operation, the 19000-19725 interval concussion, short-term trading is the main.

[German futures] weak fundamentals, Zheng cotton follow the trend.

On Friday, CF1301 was in a narrow concussion. CF1301 closed more than 14.7 million hands, and its positions were sharply reduced.

CF1301 closed at 19165 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, reduced 22494 hand; in July 27th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 87.61 cents / pound, up 1.22 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14089 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14914 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 27th news, the ICE cotton futures closed flat on Friday, rising as the market feared dry weather caused the decline in output of India's largest cotton producer. Meanwhile, Allenberg, the world's largest cotton trader, said China will continue to store cotton next year, which partly offset the global oversupply of cotton.

The ICE12 cotton contract is 71.45 cents a pound, up from 71.39 cents on Thursday.

In July 27th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 16320 tons, an increase of 2680 tons from the previous day, an increase of 1140 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 135760 tons.

On the 27 day, most of the contracts in the market were opened up, followed by high volatility and final gains.

On the basic level, the external financial market is stubborn and the market wait-and-see sentiment is increasing. Judging from the cotton market, the market has been repeated in recent years, and market rumors and weather factors continue to interact with cotton prices. Next week, the overall trend should continue to pay attention to the external economic situation and domestic related policy information.

Friday

Narrow amplitude concussion, continuous reduction in the warehouse, empty list has a flat out of the dislike, but 19200 still not broken, still regarded as a weak point, if the breakthrough is light warehouse trial more single, relying on 19200 stop loss.

Basically, the problem of imported cotton pressurized port is serious, and the price difference between inside and outside is 4000 yuan / ton. At present, the quota consumption is over, and cotton city is short of hope in order to restore its vitality.

Today's operation suggests that we should focus on 19200 points of contention, choose more tests, and CF1301 reference price range is 19000-19400.