Terminal Textile Demand Slowdown, PTA Supply Pressure Surge In The Second Half

The European debt crisis is on the rise again, and the supply pressure is increasing sharply in the second half of the year. Spin Under the influence of multiple negative demand, the price of PTA (7462184.00,2.53%) will move downward.

Driven by the favorable outcome of the EU summit at the end of June, domestic PTA went out of a continuous rally, and the main 1301 contract rose to nearly 7900 yuan / ton from the previous low of 7000 yuan / tonne, and the cumulative increase was over 10%. However, in the case of repeated high inflation, the PTA price started a rapid decline in July 20th. Although in the last two trading days, the 1301 contract has overturned and rebounded. However, under the influence of the European debt crisis rekindled, the supply pressure of PTA in the second half of the year is increasing sharply and the demand for terminal textile is slowing down, the price of PTA will move downward.

European debt crisis rekindled

With the decline of the EU summit at the end of June, the European debt crisis is back in the sight of investors. Under the pressure of Spain's local governments to turn to the central government for help, Greece to withdraw from the euro zone and Moodie to downgrade the German sovereign rating outlook from "stability" to "negative" and other bad news, domestic commodities showed a clear trend of high downtrend, especially the base metals and energy and chemical industries returned to the previous downward trend. In July 26th, the European central bank governor Delagi issued a statement on defending the euro, which directly led to the dollar on that day. index The crash fell by nearly 1%, driving Spain's 10 year Treasury yields down from 7.5% to below 7%. However, before the main effect of the eurozone leaders' speech, the Lido effect can not last for a long time, and the market sentiment will change rapidly without the support of practical actions. More importantly, it is still uncertain whether Greece can get further financial assistance because of the difficult target of fiscal tightening. The probability of Greece's withdrawal from the euro is increasing, and once it is a fact, it will have a devastating blow to the whole euro zone and the global financial market. Therefore, the negative impact of the European debt crisis will continue, and commodity prices will be under pressure.

Supply pressure increased sharply in the second half of PTA

Since the rapid expansion of production capacity in the second half of last year, this year's domestic PTA production capacity will increase by about 12 million tons, which is more than 55% of the total capacity of nearly 21 million tons at the end of last year. In addition, from the above table, we can see that most of this year's production capacity is in the second half of the year, which will obviously suppress the price of PTA in the late stage. In the 2 quarter of this year, the domestic PTA price fell from 9000 yuan / ton to 7000 yuan / ton, but the pressure of domestic supply was not reflected. If the PTA capacity of the 3 and 4 quarter plans were launched on schedule, the blow to 1301 contracts will be significantly greater than the previous 1209 contracts, which will lead to the further downward shift of the price of the 1301 contract in the future.

Terminal textile demand slowdown

With increasing supply pressure, the demand for PTA is difficult to synchronize. From the beginning of last year, domestic textile and clothing exports showed signs of turning point: on the one hand, the European and American market demand began to decline due to the financial crisis; on the other hand, because of the extinction of China's demographic dividend, the cost advantage has disappeared, and some multinational enterprises have shifted the manufacturing center from China to Vietnam, Kampuchea and other countries with lower cost, which has led to more severe cost pressures for Chinese export enterprises. Although domestic textile and clothing will enter the traditional demand season in the second half of the year after 8 and September, however, the closing season in the first half of this year has not been able to sustain much support for PTA prices. Therefore, in the context of the slowdown in demand for terminal textiles, PTA prices lack the basis for sustained growth.

Based on the above analysis, at the macro level and the basic supply and demand gap of its own, the price of PTA will continue to move downward. However, considering that the quantitative easing policy of China, the United States and European countries is expected to further increase in recent years, there is a possibility of continuous rebound in commodity prices. Therefore, it is suggested that investors should maintain a holistic approach. In specific operations, we should adopt a strategy of short selling and close attention. open interest And volume changes as reference for duel strength duel.