Rumors Of State Cotton Sale Have Left Market Sentiment Extremely Low.

Yesterday afternoon, the state-owned cotton store will sell 1 million tons of rumors influence, in recent trading days to maintain the trend of oscillation.

"Diving", the main 1301 contract has been down 590 yuan / ton, more than 3%.

Although the price of cotton has rebounded, it still fell 265 yuan / ton, and sentiment in the market was extremely low.

Rumors of cotton throwing away

Yu Lijuan, a cotton researcher at Jinshi futures, told futures daily that rumors of national cotton sale had caused cotton prices "very hurt". The market rumors that state cotton stores will sell 1 million tons.

Among them, 300 thousand tons of Chen cotton, the selling price of 15000 yuan / ton; 2011/2012 annual storage of cotton 700 thousand tons, the selling price of 18500 yuan / ton.

Although the rumor has yet to be confirmed by relevant departments, it is the last straw to crush the cotton price that has already been "running thin ice".

It is also understood that on that day, the market also heard that the national cotton store was selling 300 thousand tons, while the relevant departments had to issue 400 thousand to 500 thousand tons of import quotas.

At present, due to the low sales of textile products, the high inventory of finished products and the rapid increase in labor costs, the number of domestic textile enterprises has increased further.

The import of cheap cotton yarn is still pouring into the domestic market. The same cheap imported cotton is hoarding in the port. The import quota pfer price of cotton has been fired to 4000 yuan / ton. The domestic cotton industry is very worrying.

Against this background, the acquisition and sale of state-owned cotton stores has become the focus of attention of the market, and any fluctuations will cause significant fluctuations in cotton prices.

"From the beginning of June to the end of 7, the cotton market remained stable and the market situation did not deteriorate, but the demand was not much improved."

Nanxian futures cotton researcher Xu Yu told reporters that although the upstream industry of the cotton industry has been stable, the downstream mills are generally losing money regardless of size, and the difference is only the extent of losses.

He contacted a company with 30 thousand ingot capacity, and the monthly loss was more than 100 thousand yuan, which is equivalent to the monthly wages of all the workers in the enterprise.

The company responsible person said that if a complete shutdown, the loss can be less, but in order to retain workers, enterprises have been struggling to support, it can be said that the current textile industry is worse than 2008.

Lang Chengcheng, director of Hongye futures agricultural products research institute, believes that high price cotton is still hurting the textile industry.

According to their recent survey of some textile enterprises in Jiangsu, the overall downturn in the textile industry has not changed, and the scope of business shutting down is spreading from the low-end mills to the high-end cotton mills.

Uplink cotton prices face greater resistance in the short term

The recession in the textile industry has led to a high inventory of cotton.

According to the data released by relevant agencies, as of the end of June, the turnover of commodity cotton turnover in 103 cotton warehouses in the mainland was 726 thousand tons, a decrease of 46 thousand tons, an increase of 213 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of more than 40% over the same period last year.

At the same time, the number of cotton in port is also considerable.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China imported 4 million 728 thousand and 600 tons of cotton from September 2011 to June 2012, up 113.9% from 2 million 210 thousand and 700 tons in the same period last year.

In addition, in early July of this year, the domestic cotton industry inventory was 757 thousand tons, the chain continued to decline, but the cotton industrial stock can be used to increase the number of days to 36 days, has returned to normal level.

Lang Chengcheng said that the current textile enterprises to buy more cotton is to hope that the state purchase and storage quotes appear, this non demand driven consumption is not sustainable.

Regardless of whether the rumours of dumping or issuing quotas are true, cotton prices face greater upward resistance before the purchase and storage begins in September.

In the latter part of the domestic cotton production does not appear to be substantially reduced, the domestic cotton prices either fall completely to the price of imported cotton, or wait for the new year after the purchase and storage began to rise again, in addition, it is difficult to find support for cotton prices rise reason.

"At present, the fundamentals of cotton market are still weak, and it is not the main factor that dominates the cotton market.

As the new year's storage period is getting closer, market gambling is more focused on policy anticipation.

Xu Yu said that the news of the current market came out, which is obviously contrary to the original intention of the policy of purchasing and storage, but it can still be right.

Cause great pressure.

If there is no major change in the latter policy, the cotton price will still close to the reserve price.