July 31, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

] investors in the middle line can be included in the most recent market.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20294 yuan / ton; 229 level 19436 yuan / ton; 328 level 18524 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17617 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: recent rumors about dumping and quotas have triggered market sentiment.

However, it is understood that although the relevant departments have recently held a meeting, they have yet to reach a final opinion on issues such as dumping and storage. The relevant issues still need to be discussed and signed by many departments.

The government's relevant keynote should be to take measures to replenish the market when resources are scarce, and to suppress the market is not an end.

3. import cotton: in July 30th, the quotation of China's main port of imported cotton remained unchanged.

In terms of market turnover, with the decline of ICE futures at the end of last week, the quota of textile mills increased the purchase of foreign cotton, but cotton yarn imports continued to increase, indicating that cotton demand could hardly recover in the short term.

4. India cotton: according to the latest report of India Meteorological Bureau, as of July 20th, the cumulative rainfall in India was 22% lower than that in the normal year.

Up to now, the cotton planting in Gujarat has only finished 35%.

The Minister of agriculture of India said that if the rainfall in August is still insufficient, cotton production will have major problems, and the government will reconsider the export policy of cotton, wheat and other crops.

5.ICE cotton: in July 30th, the peripheral market had little effect on ICE futures. In December, the contract continued to maintain an oscillating trend. The intraday mainly fluctuated around 71 cents and finally closed down slightly.

Because there is no new news, the market is hard to get the support of funds, futures volume less than 10000 hands.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy, and there is no substantial change in demand.

Policy has become an important variable affecting the trend of cotton prices in the near future.

Recent rumors about dumping and quotas have triggered market sentiment.

Although the country does not take the market as a goal, low price storage or increase in quota will objectively play a role in reducing the market price of cotton social circulation.

From the disk, Zheng cotton fell sharply yesterday and fell to a new low level. After that, it quickly picked up and lowered the shadow line. It was not recommended for investors to chase empty space. Investors in the central line could be included in the most recent market.

[a German futures] throwing rumours frequent, Zheng cotton is not chasing empty.

CF1301 diving in the afternoon on Monday, CF1301 closed more than 41.9 million hands, a substantial increase in positions.

CF1301 closed at 18865 yuan / ton, down 265 yuan / ton, 25308 additional hand; in July 30th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 87.661 cents / pound, up 0.05 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14096 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14922 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 30th news, the ICE cotton futures closed down on Monday, and may fall slightly in July, because the global supply of strong commodities still covers the cotton growers around the world to reduce cotton planting area and turn to more profitable grain planting.

The ICE12 cotton contract fell 0.5% to 71.13 cents per pound.

In July 30th, the whole country

The market commodity cotton coordination business reached 13620 tons, a decrease of 2700 tons compared with the previous day, an increase of 2440 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 142740 tons.

Domestic cotton spot prices have risen slightly, and turnover has increased slightly, but turnover is still not large. Textile enterprises are still in a difficult position, and raw materials are mainly bought and sold.

The market once again rumored that the policy of throwing aside the market caused panic in the market.

On Monday, Zheng cotton quickly dived in the afternoon and was hit by a rumor of 2%. But the China Cotton Association has repeatedly announced that such speculation is false. Short money has the meaning of rumor speculation. Investors avoid chasing the air and wait for the rumor to quell.

Today's operation suggests that we should pay attention to the true and false rumors of CF1301, and the reference price range of CF1301 is 18800-19200.

[MEIKO futures] approaching new and old annual cotton prices are subject to policy expectations

Overnight, in July 30th, the peripheral market had little effect on ICE futures. In December, the contract continued to maintain an oscillating trend. The intraday mainly fluctuated around 71 cents and finally closed down slightly.

Because there is no new news, the market is hard to get the support of funds, futures volume less than 10000 hands.

As global resources supply is significantly larger than demand and consumption is weak, cotton prices are unlikely to rise.

News, 1, CEO Cotton Corp, Joe Nicolas, said that the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is trying to design a new international cotton contract to supplement or replace existing ICE cotton futures contracts.

2. India: the seasonal wind and rain are not enough so far. The core cotton producing area of Gujarat is 76% less than that of the whole year.

At present, the cotton planting area in this state is about 27 million mu, compared with 37 million 500 thousand mu in the same period last year, and the final cotton planting area exceeds 45 million mu and the output is 1 million 870 thousand tons.

If the late India monsoon rains have not changed, the cotton planting area in Gujarat will hardly exceed 37 million 500 thousand mu this year.

In the international market, the quotation of China's main port of imported cotton remained unchanged in July 30th.

In terms of market turnover, with the decline of ICE futures at the end of last week, the quota of textile mills increased the purchase of foreign cotton, but cotton yarn imports continued to increase, indicating that cotton demand could hardly recover in the short term.

From the perspective of technical graphics, the current ICE futures are still subject to average repression, and the potential impact of rumors of dumping and selling on the market remains to be underestimated.

The new international cotton is about to start, and the direction of the cotton market still depends on China's cotton policy.

Domestic market, 30, the domestic spot price is still steadily rising trend, and by the impact of throwing storage rumors, today's cotton fell sharply, for already frail cotton prices will be a great pressure, at present, textile downstream consumption is difficult to improve, textile enterprises have limited affordability, with the possibility of throwing and storing is bigger and bigger, will once again defeat the original lack of confidence.

Spot quotation. In July 30th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 88.35 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 15126 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The Australian cotton quotation was 92.60, the general trade port delivery price was 15679 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 91.60, the general trade port delivery price was 15546 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 85.60, the general trade port delivery price was 14782 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19437 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan; the B index was 18525 yuan, up 1 yuan.

Market analysis, at present only 2 months to the new year, the market is expected to increase the panic of the policy of dumping and storage. Yesterday, the first China Cotton elite forum was held in Beijing. During the day, rumors of speculation and storage have been established. The number is close to million tons, and the price of new Chen cotton is 18500 yuan and 15000 yuan / ton.

Yesterday, it broke through the recent inter district concern, underneath support 18500, the upper pressure 19000.

Close to the old and new year alternating season, pay close attention to the industry policy dynamics.

Operation, the 18500-19000 interval operation.