August 7, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

　　 [Hongyuan futures Zheng cotton midline is more than one can hold.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20294 yuan / ton; 229 level 19436 yuan / ton; 328 level 18524 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17617 yuan / ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 6, the domestic cotton spot price is running smoothly. At present, without the introduction of policies such as dumping and storage, the level of industrial and commercial inventory is expected to be relatively low at the end of the year, and the domestic cotton market will become more balanced.

3. cotton imports: 6 days, ICE futures rose sharply last weekend, the main port price of imported cotton rose sharply, and the varieties generally rose 1.5-3 cents. Entering the August, market expectations for national policies are increasing day by day. As time goes on, the possibility of dumping and increasing the quota becomes reality.

4. US cotton exports: in August 2, 2012, the US Department of Agriculture announced the US cotton export report on July 2012 20-26. In the week of 2011/12, the net volume of US cotton exports was 9 thousand tons, and the main buyers were China (2 thousand and 500 tons), Mexico, Thailand and South Korea. In 2012/13, the net volume of US cotton exports was 38 thousand and 400 tons. The main buyers were Turkey, Mexico, Morocco and China (3 thousand and 800 tons).

5.ICE cotton: in August 6th, the ICE cotton December contract broke up after 5 days, and broke through the pressure level of 75 cents.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy, and there is no substantial change in demand. The policy of collecting and selling reserves and quota policy has become an important variable affecting the cotton price trend in the near future. In August 6th, the ICE cotton contract broke through the pressure level of 75 cents after breaking through the 5 day contract in December. Zheng cotton short line has three equal line pressure, but the possibility of breaking the pressure level on the middle line is greater. Short term interval operation is the strategy, and the investors in the central line pay close attention to the opportunity to buy more opportunities.

[a German futures] frequent news of Zheng cotton drift with the tide

On Monday, CF1301 opened high in the air, and CF1301 closed more than 15.2 hands at the close. CF1301 closed at 19170 yuan / ton, up 260 yuan / ton, reduced 17372 hand; in August 6th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 88.23 cents / pound, up 0.84 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14217 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 15008 yuan / ton.

According to New York's August 6th news, ICE cotton futures rose second days on Monday, hitting two and a half months as investors became increasingly worried about possible export restrictions in India, the world's second largest producer. The ICE12 cotton contract closed 2.4% higher on Monday, at 75.72 cents a pound.

In August 6th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 11940 tons, a decrease of 540 tons compared with the previous day, a reduction of orders of 920 tons, and a total purchase of 136820 tons. On the basic level, the peripheral economic data is like a changeable wind and cloud, which makes investors unable to find out the direction. From the cotton market, the market price of the recent policy of throwing and storing the reserve and storing information will be around the market. From the perspective of the downstream of the cotton spinning, there are signs of some warming in the consumer side. As a whole, the probability of short-term market volatility is greater, and the market will continue to wait for the policy direction.

Zheng cotton jumped high in the air on Monday. American cotton Strong trend of the impact, there is news that India may implement export restrictions, the current cotton market news changes greater impact, but overall is still greater possibility of interval shocks. 19200 the resistance is strong at the top, so it is possible to recapture today. Today's operation recommends, wait and see, CF1301 reference price range is 19100-19400.

[MEIKO futures] US cotton continues to rise, focusing on MA60 performance

Overnight, ICE cotton futures rose second days on Monday, hitting two and a half months as investors became increasingly worried about possible export restrictions in India, the world's second largest producer. Cotton futures rose 6.3% in two trading days, as investors got clues from a weaker US dollar and stronger stock market to lock in profits. The 12 contract closed at 75.72 cents / pound, or 2.41%, and returned to the May price range.

The international market, in August 6th, was affected by the ICE futures rose last weekend. The price of China's main port of imported cotton rose sharply, and the varieties generally rose by 1.5-3 cents. Entering the August, market expectations for national policies are increasing day by day. With the passage of time, the possibility of dumping and increasing the quota becomes more and more realistic, and the market of dull and stalemate domestic and imported cotton is expected to be loose. From the price point of view, the opening and closing of the national new year will continue to raise cotton prices, and the price trend will remain stable in the short term. {page_break}

Domestic market, 6 days, domestic cotton spot price runs smoothly. At present, without the introduction of policies such as dumping and storage, the level of industrial and commercial inventory is expected to be relatively low at the end of the year, and the domestic cotton market will become more balanced. At the same time, the downturn in the downstream consumption situation has not changed significantly. The balance of the air and space situation is more fragile. The policy rumors about dumping and storage will still affect the market, and we need to pay close attention to it.

Spot quotation, August 6th, the US C/A cotton quotation is 88.80 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15245 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 95.10, the general trade port price is 16076 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton price is 93.10, the general trade port price is 15806 yuan / ton, the West African cotton price is 87.60, the general trade port delivery price is 15093 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation is 87.10, the general trade port delivery price is 15030 yuan / ton. The national cotton price A index is 19439 yuan / ton; the B index is 18528 yuan, down 1 yuan.

Market analysis, at present, only 2 months to the new year. Combined with the actual situation of the industry, the market is expected to rise again to the National Reserve Bank and the increase of quotas. Overnight US cotton continued to soar on Friday, breaking the high 75 pressure level, which will boost the market.

On the operation, foreign cotton continued the strength of last Friday. Today, we pay attention to the pressure of Zheng Mian's 60 day moving average, if we can stabilize it, we can try to build more.

[Wanda futures] India's rain postponed US cotton breaking up

India's monsoon rains delayed the drought threat to the cotton area, and the market began to worry about India's restrictions on cotton exports. Meanwhile, investors continued to be optimistic about the plan of the European central bank governor Delagi to solve the sovereign debt crisis. Investors continued to adjust their positions before the USDA monthly demand and supply report was issued. The overnight ICE cotton continued to rise. The main contract in December broke through 75 cents / pound pressure level, and increased 1.78 cents to 75.72 cents / pound, the highest intraday price of 75.79 cents / pound, hitting a new high since mid May. With the support of the European debt crisis and India's drought in the market speculation, the rally will continue before the USDA monthly announcement.

Technically, the ICE cotton broke through the pressure level on the 75 cents / pound area, and the KD and MACD indexes again formed a multi head rise. MACD index red column growth, the short-term average line system has formed a trend of rising trend, and the rally will continue. If the I2 contract can stand 75 cents per pound for 3 consecutive days, it will challenge the 84 cents / pound tier strong pressure level.

European debt crisis eased, market speculation delayed India monsoon rainfall, short-term international cotton prices may continue to rise, and promote Zheng cotton uplink, the 1301 contract is expected to challenge another 19400 yuan / tonne pressure level. However, the trend of economic recession in the euro area has not changed. The global consumption of textile and clothing has shrunk. China's cotton price is still much higher than the international cotton price. Exports are not competitive, export orders are declining, consumption is sluggish, and the overall market lacks confidence. At the same time, the pressure of dumping and storage has not disappeared, and the confidence of the market is obviously insufficient. It is expected that with the support of ICE cotton rising, Zheng cotton 1301 the contract will challenge 19400 yuan / tonne pressure level, such as cotton price break through the pressure level, continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, otherwise it will be better to rely on the pressure to increase the blank list.