In The Short Term, PTA Market Or Strong Volatility Trend.

1, market review

On Thursday, PTA pulled up slightly after opening, and the main shock was close to the day before yesterday's settlement price.

Main 1301 contract

At 7700 yuan / ton, the highest price in the day is 7772 yuan / ton, and the lowest price is 7684 yuan / ton, closing at 7762 yuan / ton, up 102 or 1.33% from the previous trading day.

The position increased by 11 thousand to 623 thousand hands compared with the previous trading day.

Positions, the top 20 positions held 178529 hands, the first 20 positions 175533 hands, the first 20 net positions long 2996 hands.

2, message plane

The US stock market closed up on Thursday. The S & P 500 index continued to rise for fifth days with a slight increase. It is still the main force to boost the market in anticipation of further economic stimulus measures to the major central banks in the absence of new stimulus factors.

The European stock market closed up on Thursday, closing to the peak of the year, which extended the recent rally to fifth days, and the hope of the country's push for further stimulus measures remains unchanged because of China's inflation figures.

US Treasury bond prices fell on Thursday, as data showed that the number of Americans initially jobless was unexpectedly reduced last week, but closed at a low level, after the Treasury issued a 30 year bond to mark the end of this week's public debt auction.

German bond closed down on Thursday, showing a trend in the intraday market because it is uncertain whether the ECB will restart its debt purchase plan and how much it will do to lower borrowing costs in Spain and Italy.

Feel uneasy and limit the decline in German debt.

China's CPI fell to below 2% in July, and PPI's negative growth for five consecutive months has created room for further easing of macroeconomic policy.

Insiders believe that the central bank's reduction in the reserve requirement ratio will only be a matter of time, but whether more interest rates are needed, there is still more evidence for economic performance.

Beihai's Brent crude oil production is expected to decline, as well as sustained economic stimulus measures expected to benefit from the US economic data better than expected. Crude oil futures rose on Thursday.

US crude oil 09 contract rose 0.01 U.S. dollars / barrel or 0.01% to close at 93.36 U.S. dollars / barrel, Brent crude 10 contract rose 1.10 U.S. dollars / barrel or 0.99% to 111.67 U.S. dollars / barrel.

PX prices fell 5 US dollars to 1429 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Korea, downstream of the bomb factory funds are tight, reduce the hoarding behavior, on Thursday, the PTA downstream polyester filament production and sales rate dropped to 50%-80%.

3. Technical analysis

Technically, MACD red column rose slightly, RSI index upward, short term PTA market or strong volatility trend, the upper pressure level is near 7800.

4, trading strategy

With the downstream stock ready, Wednesday

The rally has slowed down. On Thursday, the production and sale rate of polyester filament in the downstream of PTA has dropped to 50%-80%, and the downstream bomb factory has tight funds to reduce the hoarding behavior.

Before the severe weather in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces affected the logistics operation of some PTA contract goods, the downstream polyester factories were forced to increase the spot PTA, resulting in the tight supply of PTA market. At present, typhoon anemone has crossed the border in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and the supply of PTA market has been relieved.

Naphtha and PX prices remain strong, while PTA processing is still losing money, cost support is obvious, and short term should not be overlooked.

The second half of this year is the peak of PTA production capacity, and some new PTA installations with start-up conditions remain unchanged. The long-term pressure remains great.

Operation is still recommended 7650 near the bargain buy short, holding near 7800, as the price continues to rush, you can choose the layout of the empty list.