August 10, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures Zheng cotton midline more than thought unchanged

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20294 yuan / ton; 229 level 19436 yuan / ton; 328 level 18524 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17617 yuan / ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: the problem of "purchasing, storing, throwing and storing quotas" has been affecting the nerves of cotton prices. With the closing time of storage, the price of cotton will fall, but it will be difficult to rise.

3. imported cotton: at present, the market is waiting for USDA to announce the supply and demand report. Although the downstream demand is not improving, more cotton producers are looking forward to good news from the USDA report. From the recent situation, the drought in the United States and the lack of rain in India have affected the growth of new cotton, so that the market is worried that the India government will once again implement the India cotton export ban.

4. cotton industrial stocks: according to the sampling survey of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of August 8th, the average cotton inventory used by the enterprises surveyed was about 36 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong), and the annulus ratio increased by 2.4 days, an increase of 3.3 days compared with the same period last year, 1.9 days more than the average increase of nearly three years. According to relevant data projections, the national cotton industry inventory of about 792 thousand tons, an increase of 7.3%, an increase of 4.6% over the previous year, an average inventory reduction of 14.4% over the past three years. Cotton industry stocks in different provinces are different, and Anhui, Jiangsu and Fujian have relatively large stock of cotton industry.

5.ICE cotton: in August 9th, on the eve of the USDA monthly report, the market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, investors continued to adjust their positions. In December, the contract was dominated by oscillations, and the settlement price fell 5 points over the previous trading day. At present, the market is still looking forward to the good news from USDA, which has responded to the recent rainy weather in India's main cotton producing areas.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy, and there is no substantial change in demand. With the new cotton As the year draws near, cotton enterprises expect cotton prices to come closer to the purchase and storage price. Under this expectation, there is limited space under zhengmian, and with cotton entering the critical period of growth, the weather may become a theme to boost Zheng cotton's uplink. The next step is to suggest that investors adhere to the idea of getting more money in the long line and pay close attention to the pressure of 19700 yuan / ton at the top of the platform.

[Wanda futures]USDA monthly before us cotton fell slightly

Although the global second and third largest producers, India and the US, have been worried about crop damage, while international agricultural prices have generally risen on Thursday, investors expect USDA to continue to raise the global end inventory. Meanwhile, the market is worried about the Chinese government's selling of reserves. This has led to more single profit selling in the ICE cotton market, and the December contract fell 0.05 to 75.95 cents / pound. Although the US weather agency is careful to say that the El Nino phenomenon that led to the last drought in India will almost certainly appear in the next two months and will continue until 2013, but a small reduction in production can not change the pattern of oversupply and low consumption in the world. It is difficult for the speculation of the weather to get rid of the weak pattern of cotton prices and pay attention to the USDA monthly report on Friday evening.

Technically, the ICE cotton futures were down, and the main contract in December was still on the top of 75 cents / pound. The KD and MACD indexes continued to rise in a long way. The red flag growth of the MACD index rose, and the trend of the rising trend of the long term average line system rose, and the rally would continue. In December, the contract expected to challenge the pressure level of 80 cents / pound.

On Thursday, Zheng cotton continued to rebound under the support of the rising external market. The main 1301 contract challenged 19400 yuan / ton pressure level. The change in output is not enough to change the pattern of serious oversupply of global supply. If the USDA monthly report is not better than expected, if ICE is better or weaker than expected, USDA cotton will face the pressure of callback, and we are not optimistic about the monthly report. Therefore, it is advisable to treat the rebound cautiously. The euro zone recession continues to drag the global economic recovery, China's cotton prices are still significantly higher than the international cotton prices, China's export orders continue to decline, the downstream cotton yarn and terminal market continues to deteriorate, the overall market confidence is insufficient, textile enterprises can not withstand the rebound of cotton prices, current cotton prices stagflation, lack of basic and macro support, Zheng cotton is difficult to get rid of the current weak pattern, continue to pay attention to the 1301 contract 19400 yuan / ton pressure level, if effective breakthrough, rebound will continue, January will challenge 19700 yuan / ton pressure level, otherwise Zheng cotton will continue to decline, once again challenge 19100 yuan / ton supporting position, can rely on 19400 yuan / ton pressure level to increase the holding of empty list, and use this price as a stop loss position. {page_break}

[German futures] supply and demand report is expected to be profitable, Zheng cotton continues to rebound

On Thursday, the CF1301 narrowed and CF1301 closed more than 9.4 million hands, with a small decrease in holding. CF1301 closed at 19380 yuan / ton, up 35 yuan / ton, reduced 446 hand; in August 9th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 89.58 cents / pound, up 0.59 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14431 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 15178 yuan / ton.

According to the August 9th news, US cotton futures were close to market on Thursday. Market participants will wait for the USDA report tomorrow. The ICE12 cotton contract fell 0.1% to 75.95 cents per pound.

In August 9th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 13400 tons, an increase of 2960 tons from the previous day, an increase of 1280 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 140080 tons. On the basic side, the market looks forward to the upcoming US agricultural data report. In recent days, India's domestic cotton prices continue to rise due to drought, which also boosted the international cotton price slightly. However, from the weather information, there will be a lot of rain in the past one or two days.

Thursday Zheng cotton A narrow range of shock and smooth moving average system is trading lightly. Before the USDA supply and demand report, the market is quite calm. It is expected that the report will be more profitable, although it will not be too good to stimulate, but it can still make zhengmian continue to rebound. Today's operation recommendations, multiple single continued, CF1301 reference price range of 19200-19500