Consumption Is Sluggish, Cotton Bottom Oscillates, Spinning Enterprise Situation Has Not Improved.

New year's storage restriction

Lower space, and support cotton prices to purchase and storage prices from a long-term trend.

However, due to low consumption and high inventory, zhengmian 1301 contract will continue to maintain a 18600 to 19800 Interval Oscillation in short or short term.

Cotton main contract 1301 short term by the macroeconomic situation improved and the United States cotton uplink and other factors to promote, backed by 18600 yuan / ton low point area support rapid rebound trend.

From the recent fundamentals, the situation of textile enterprises is still worrying, and cotton consumption is still being suppressed. Moreover, the domestic cotton stocks are high and phased out. The zhengmian 1301 contract is likely to continue to maintain bottom oscillation under the cooperation of the lack of quantity and price.

Domestic textile and clothing exports and domestic sales data are not optimistic.

On the export side, the growth rate of textile and clothing exports from 1 to June was only 1.63%, representing a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from 1 to May.

And from the link data, textile exports 8 billion 408 million US dollars, a decrease of 8.88%.

In terms of domestic sales, from 1 to June, the total retail sales of textile and garment industry increased by 16.9%, which is also significantly lower than the growth rate of 24.6% in the same period last year.

At present, the domestic textile situation is bad, which brings great uncertainty to downstream cotton consumption.

Although domestic clothing will enter the traditional peak season in August, the enthusiasm of textile enterprises for raw material procurement will be improved.

However, at present, the global economic situation has not yet recovered, macroeconomic uncertainty still exists, and the orders of domestic garment manufacturers are not optimistic.

In addition, the current situation of the textile enterprises that stop production and limit production will lead to more small and medium-sized enterprises facing the dilemma of elimination.

This shows that the second half of the year

Downstream consumption still worries the market.

According to the Statistics Bureau, China imported 476 thousand tons of cotton in June, an increase of 296.6% over the same period last year.

In the first half of 2012, 3 million 55 thousand tons of cotton were imported, an increase of 130.2% over the same period last year.

In June, cotton imports continued to maintain a high level, despite a slight decrease in the price of cotton, which was slightly lower than the previous months, but increased by nearly three times compared with the previous months.

According to China cotton information network survey, in recent 3 months, the proportion of foreign cotton stocks in textile enterprises has been lingering at 50%, while the proportion of foreign cotton in some textile enterprises has already exceeded 50%, reaching eight or nine or even one hundred percent.

At present, the domestic cotton quotas are limited, and the difference between the inside and outside cotton prices has not brought great impact on the domestic cotton market. However, the backlog of cotton imports from the main ports in China is an indisputable fact. Once the quota is issued in the late period, cheap imported cotton will seize the domestic high price cotton market.

With the import and storage of cotton, China's cotton stocks almost quadrupled to 6 million tons.

Therefore, how to digest inventory in the later stage will also become an important factor affecting cotton price fluctuation.

The central reserve cotton will emphasize again that it will start in September, and open and store it with unlimited quantity of 20400 yuan / ton.

The implementation of the purchase and storage policy will bring iron price support to cotton prices.

It is estimated that spot cotton prices will continue to rise in the new year as the policy of purchasing and storing up is approaching.

Before the start of the national reserve purchase and storage in September, there may be short-term dumping.

Although the state usually throws stores in the face of insufficient supply, it is dumping reserves for controlling high spot prices.

At present, the domestic cotton market is not satisfied with the above two throwing storage conditions.

But the new year's policy of opening up unlimited reserves will create enormous pressure for domestic capacity.

Therefore, we do not exclude that the state carries out a certain amount of dumping in the period of 8 to September.

The price volume will affect the fluctuation of cotton prices.

On the whole, the new year will limit the cotton prices under the purchase and storage space, and will support cotton prices in the long term trend.

However, due to sluggish consumption and high inventory prices, the short-term rebound in cotton prices remains short of strong support.

1301 contracts will continue to maintain 18600 to 19800 interval oscillations in a short or short term.