E-Commerce Is In A Bubble State.

At the end of last year, many friends and correspondents from the media asked me, "do you think China?"

Is there any bubble in the market? At that time, I insisted that there was no bubble in e-commerce in China, and China's e-commerce has created remarkable results for users and industries.

But now it is different, the bubble has begun to appear, and it is manifested in several aspects: we are busy fighting water battles, busy with mutual discredit, busy with swelling and fat.

Now the price war is extensive, and this price war has no technical content, and this war is sometimes getting worse and worse, and it is becoming more and more downhill. No matter from the surface or from inside, I think these things have contributed to the bubble of China's electronic business.

This is CEO.

In July 20th, at the annual meeting of the 2012 generation of electricity suppliers, we judged the domestic e-commerce market.

Just like the old saying, in recent years, the once conservative and steady development of China's e-commerce market has suddenly been injected into the "catalyst", from the commercial mode development to the financing environment, ushering in an unprecedented spring.

But at the same time, greed, false prosperity and vicious competition are also rapidly growing like cancer, eating the healthy development of electricity business.

Bubble has become an unavoidable fact for China's electricity supplier industry.

In fact, after more than ten years of development, the Chinese electricity supplier has not been separated from the state of "moving boxes".

Almost all of them are repeating the rules of "horse race enclosure - financing - listing - re expansion".

However, such a business model has shown weakness and failed to make the electricity supplier profitable.

On the one hand, China's electricity supplier's survival is facing huge demand for its logistics. On the other hand, the low gross profit makes it impossible to turn the financial statements into full play.

Price bubble

But even in the face of a serious gap, the tight business of the electronic business is still struggling to make money selling profits. In June 1st, suning.com launched a history of no difference in the first place to replace the "full network parity month". After that, Jingdong mall started the activities of "Jingdong Normandy, the strongest monthly celebration in the history of the month, giving up 1 billion yuan" activities, and Tmall, who refused to stop fighting, announced a 200 million yuan subsidy to merchants on the basis of the sale promotion, and announced an additional 100 million yuan to directly subsidize consumers.

In addition, the micro-blog platform has also become a major price war battlefield for big business providers, Jingdong mall CEO

In July 16th, Mr. Weibo said: "at the meeting today and the managers of the whole country, the third and fourth quarter of this year will set off the biggest, the most tragic and the most comprehensive price war in the history of Chinese e-commerce. And Jingdong should continue to lead this price war. From today on, the price is not the lowest, who will go away!"

The news sent a strong response in the electricity supplier industry, the electricity suppliers have sent micro-blog response, electricity prices war to micro-blog positions.

Peng Liang, vice president of Coba shopping network, immediately responded to Liu Qiangdong on micro-blog. He said that he expected the price war to hit again. CEO Ding Donghua also immediately released Liu Qiangdong's idea that Jingdong's power is not cheaper than the offline chain store, and the idea of rewarding netizens 1000 yuan coupons is disdain.

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The collective price chaos war that smoky and diffusing electricity to consumers means that the bottom line of online shopping will be broken once again.

Although the price war is tragic, the big business guys are still enjoying it. In the final analysis, they are trying to keep their market share. Mo Daiqing, director of the online retail department of the China Electronic Commerce Research Center, pointed out: "from the perspective of market share, Tmall is still ranked first, second is Jingdong, and others are Amazon China, suning.com.

It is precisely those enterprises.

It is clear that their purpose is to maintain their status. "

In the view of big business people, price war is the investment in the early stage. It is the input of self construction, the value of the money, but in the final analysis, the enterprise is still afraid of price war, and the price war is just a helpless move.

Theoretically speaking, price war may be advantageous in the short run, but so far, e-commerce in China has not gone out of the chaos of price war.

Mo Daiqing believes that price war can win market share and strive to become a leader in the industry.

From the present point of view, the development of electronic commerce enterprises has accumulated certain funds and their relatively stable customer groups for many years, so that they have a certain foundation.

Secondly, the electricity supplier can rely on investors, and price war is to some extent attracting venture capital.

"The core competitiveness of future e-commerce is reflected in the quality of products and services.

With the advantage of price, the user loyalty is not stable. If there is a lower price, it will go to other places to buy.

Only users really feel that the quality of products and services is guaranteed, in order to enhance customer trust in the electricity supplier and the possibility of re purchase.

Talent bubble

At the same time, the war of talent is also developing fiercely.

A Wanda Plaza recruitment advertisement released by AI consulting analyst is "domineering".

The deputy general and assistant, with a salary of millions of years, are required to list the conditions that have been worked in almost all e-commerce companies, such as Amazon, Dangdang and Jingdong.

The idea of "digging the corner" is very obvious.

In sharp contrast to the price that falls to the bottom of the valley, the salaries of e-commerce talents are very high, and the annual salary of top executives of domestic e-commerce websites is between 600 thousand yuan and 1 million yuan.

The reason for this is that "things are scarce and expensive."

Data from Zhaopin showed that demand for Internet business talent was hot, and 90 thousand jobs were released last year, and this year jumped to 260 thousand.

Big or small business people or the big and small businesses who are walking on the road of e-commerce are suffering from the hunger of talent.

Too many companies are busy getting into the electricity business.

But there is no time and energy to train employees. In order to take shortcuts, everyone is digging others' corner.

The traditional business predators, long shopping malls, in order to get a share as early as possible, also had to join the war.

While the big guys complain about the compensation bubble of the electricity supplier, they are helping to make the bubble bigger and bigger. On the one hand, they are hungry and hungry. On the one hand, the salary system is too high. On the other hand, the electricity providers are constantly digging up people, causing the industry to change jobs.

The rapid expansion of the electricity supplier industry has led to the existence of the phenomenon of "digging the feet and becoming the wind" and "pay foam". However, when the "foot digging phobia" is constantly blowing up the "pay bubble", once the big expansion of the electricity supplier industry has stopped abruptly, the premium of the remuneration has been forced to "burn back".

At that time, the business enterprise and the electricity supplier talented person, will inevitably lose both sides.

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Logistics bubble

In recent years, the harsh reality of high oil prices, soaring labor costs and intensified competition in the industry has made life difficult for the logistics industry.

A widely cited industry data is that the profit margin of the express industry has fallen from 30% in 2005 to 5%~8% today.

In addition to enterprises such as EMS, which are not on the same level, many private courier companies in China have fallen into a bad development logic. Low cost expansion has grabbed the market, low standards of services have reduced costs, and low returns have failed to improve core competitiveness.

At the same time, with the increasingly serious bubble of e-commerce in China and many years of low price war baptism, many e-commerce enterprises realize that the logistics experience is the ultimate competitiveness.

Jingdong mall takes the lead in building express business itself. Despite the controversy, the business model of self built logistics is evolving from "case" to "fashion".

A "get the logistics of the world", prompting Jingdong mall, fan Kecheng and other platform business providers, as well as good fun and other vertical electric providers are full of expectations for self built logistics.

At the end of May this year, as a star enterprise in the express industry, SF EXPRESS launched its e-commerce website "Shun Feng optimization".

Since then, STO, the largest share of the domestic market share, has also launched an e-commerce platform "Ai Ai chao chao".

Apart from seeking new avenues for development, express companies open up e-commerce outlets.

We can see that the "mixed battle" in the field of express delivery and electronic commerce has been launched in an all-round way.

The mixed operation of express and electronic business is also unavoidable except for business.

The spoiler of the electricity supplier makes the traditional logistics companies face new talent challenges. After the turnover of logistics executives, the pay is doubled.

Although the industry believes that the cost of foreign express delivery is higher and the coverage of the network is narrower, it will not cause too much impact on the local enterprises in the short term. But for foreign logistics with complete human resources system, reserve personnel is the most important step for China to enter the Chinese market.

Ruisi Fangda headhunter introduces that in China, the gap between senior logistics talents is about 400 thousand yuan, and the biggest competition between e-commerce self built logistics, foreign capital logistics and old brand logistics is the competition of talents. The remuneration of foreign capital logistics enterprises is twice as much as that of domestic logistics executives.

Self built logistics continues to "dig people" from old logistics, and logistics talent wars continue to spread from executives to grass-roots units.

The survey shows that senior logistics managers earn more than 500 thousand yuan a year, and some foreign logistics companies earn more than one million annual senior logistics director positions.

For the logistics industry, high salaries and low price competition are bound to exacerbate the industry's survival of the fittest and speed up the industry reshuffle. In the scuffle, the survival of enterprises can only be reborn through the market segmentation and brand specialization, and go to the high-end and fast development path.

According to data provided by Cao Junbo, Dean of iResearch Institute, "ten years of review and trend interpretation of electricity supplier", 2006~2012 is the fast growing period of China's electricity supplier.

However, 2012 is a node. From 2012 to 2012, China's electricity supplier has entered a mature period, the growth rate will drop from 54.5% in 2012 to 26.8% in 2015.

Against this background, the early burst of bubbles will make a group of potential competitors eliminated as soon as possible, and the marketing cost will not increase rapidly with the increase of new players.

In a stable market environment, enterprises that are in a dominant position in the market can deepen the improvement and development of product and service quality.

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In other words, China's electricity providers are moving from the extensive growth to the finer stage.

In the process, China's new wave of consumer demand will show, but the ecosphere and competition mode of the electricity supplier will also be rebuilt.

Compared with the past two years, such as "losing money and making money", "scale is king" and "speed capital", Chinese electricity suppliers are more rational and cautious now.

Expert opinion

Li Shubin, President of good Lok.

The Amazon family lost about 3000000000 US dollars in the US, and China had to build its own logistics and other kinds of construction, which is far from the standard of loss. Our investment is still too small.

Second, e-commerce is a 10000 meter race, running in front of desperately, or after the effort, to see their own ability.

The third is to look at the industry of choice. If you choose a small industry, you can run slowly without seeing how fast others run, because he is not an industry with me.

In fact, in some small industries, competition is not so intense. I think there is still a chance.

Xing Kongyu, President of PDA network

The industry is really not easy to get money, including VC is very confused, not only VC can not understand, now many business friends are also very entangled.

But I personally believe that the electricity supplier is now the best time, so many people are shopping online, and now the logistics and payment are far more than ten years ago.

So I believe that after this so-called capital bubble, those that rely only on capital scale and then get money will not be easy for the next time. Second, I believe that our industry will be more rational after this wave of capital bubble is pushed over again.

In the past, special pain and high cost promotion will come down a little. Third, personally believe that the real strong will be born in the next two years. It must not be born in the most favorable time, but born in a good industry foundation, but after the bubble is removed and the impetuosity is removed, the strong will really come into being.

Tencent electricity supplier CEO Wu Xiaoguang

China's electricity supplier industry has just completed the first stage. Since 2005, the electricity supplier represented by Taobao has broken the barriers to buy sellers, allowing users to enjoy the richness of online shopping.

Nowadays, China's electricity supplier is entering the second stage. The key point of this stage is how to improve user's online experience more perfectly.

The key of this stage is to improve the pparency of supply chain and logistics information.

The traditional supply chain will undergo qualitative change. Enterprises can know more about the preferences, needs and customized products of different regions, different genders and consumers at different ages through data mining.

Logistics side, through data connectivity and information docking, let consumers know the precise state of each node.

Yi Kai capital CEO Wang Ran

China's electricity supplier has come to the critical stage in pursuit of healthy gross profit and early cash flow.

Especially for newly established companies, entrepreneurs need to consider how to really do well and make a solid market segmentation, not only to attract financial investors, but also to introduce strategic investors, and truly do the industry well and be strong.

Chinese electricity providers have been learning the Amazon mode, but it really has learned less than 1/2, but only to get users and move boxes.

Amazon's operation and data analysis are its real core competitiveness.