On August 24, 2012, Institutional Trading ----- Cotton Futures

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[Hongyuan futures ]Zheng Mian can buy long on multiple averages

main points

1. Price quick report: domestic lint: RMB 20304/ton, Grade 129; Level 229: 19453 yuan/ton; Grade 328 18541 yuan/ton; 428 level 17640 yuan/ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10250 yuan/ton; Viscose staple fiber 15830 yuan/ton; The price of C32S is 25570 yuan/ton.

2. Domestic spot price: On the 23rd, the spot price of domestic cotton continued to rise slightly. Recently, some cotton producing areas in China have begun to pick new flowers. It is widely reported that excessive rainfall this year has affected cotton growth, and both the yield and quality have declined. Concerns about cotton yield reduction in the mainland caused by the bad weather in the early days of the cotton market have become a reality. At the same time, the date of cotton harvest and storage in the new year is approaching, and cotton prices are boosted by many favorable factors, It may continue the rising trend.

3. Imported cotton: On August 23, the quotation of imported cotton in China's main port fell slightly, and most varieties dropped by 0.25 cents. From the perspective of market conditions, weak downstream demand and high cotton stocks have limited the rising space of foreign cotton. At the same time, coupled with concerns about the European debt crisis and the global economic downturn, it is difficult for the market to form a situation of sustained growth. In addition, new cotton in the northern hemisphere is in a critical period of growth, and any factors that are not conducive to cotton growth may cause disturbances in the market and provide investors with hyped materials.

4. ICE cotton: On August 23, the long harvest of ICE cotton still failed to break through the peak on August 21.

Summary:

The two main factors affecting the current domestic cotton price are demand and policy, and there has been no substantial change in demand. With the approaching of the new cotton year, the policy will become the primary factor affecting the cotton price in the short and medium term. Cotton enterprises often expect that the cotton price will gradually move closer to the purchase and storage price. Under this expectation, the space below Zheng Mian is limited. The author insists on the idea of gradually incorporating multiple orders when Zheng Mian falls in the middle line.

　 [Maike Futures] Cotton shocks move up during confidence period

In the overnight trading, cotton futures prices fell on Thursday, and producers continued to sell above 76 cents. As the market digested the news that the Chinese government may sell up to 15% of cotton stocks next month, this may lead to oversupply in the saturated cotton market. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) index of December cotton closed 0.22% lower at 76.8 cents per pound.

On the news side, 1. USDA (August 10, 2012 - 16) US cotton export weekly report: that week, the net contracted volume of US upland cotton exports in 2012/13 was 18700 tons. The net contracted volume of American upland cotton exports in 2013/14 was 2600 tons. The export shipment volume of American upland cotton is 30700 tons. 2. Tropical storm "Isaac" continues to move westward and close to the Caribbean Sea, posing a potential threat to American cotton production areas. At present, both the southeast of the United States and the delta region are likely to be affected. It is understood that less than 25% of new cotton in the southeast region will be bolled in the coming week, while the boll opening rate in the delta region will reach 50% next week. This market We will continue to pay attention.

In the international market, on August 23, the quotation of imported cotton in China's main port fell slightly, with most varieties down 0.25 cents. From the perspective of market conditions, weak downstream demand and high cotton stocks have limited the rising space of foreign cotton. At the same time, coupled with concerns about the European debt crisis and the global economic downturn, it is difficult for the market to form a situation of sustained growth. In addition, new cotton in the northern hemisphere is in a critical period of growth, and any factors that are not conducive to cotton growth may cause disturbances in the market and provide investors with hyped materials. Therefore, cotton may rebound at any time under long-term pressure.

In the domestic market, the spot price of domestic cotton continued to rise slightly on the 23rd. Recently, some cotton producing areas in China have begun to pick new flowers. It is widely reported that excessive rainfall this year has affected cotton growth, and both the yield and quality have declined. Concerns about cotton yield reduction in the mainland caused by the bad weather in the early days of the cotton market have become a reality. At the same time, the date of cotton harvest and storage in the new year is approaching, and cotton prices are boosted by many favorable factors, It may continue the rising trend.

Spot quotation: on August 23, the quotation of American C/A cotton was 92.60 (US cents/pound), which was converted into 15715 yuan/ton (calculated as sliding allowance tax) for general trade port delivery price; Australian cotton is 98.10 yuan, which is equivalent to 16473 yuan/ton for general trade port delivery; Uzbekistan cotton is 94.60 yuan, or 15985 yuan/ton for general trade port delivery; West Africa cotton is 89.85 yuan, which is 15352 yuan/ton at the port of general trade; Indian cotton is 89.10 yuan, which is 15254 yuan/ton at the port of general trade. The national cotton price A index was 19471 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; B index was 18561 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. {page_break}

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According to the market analysis, a number of advantages in the industry have injected some profits into the market recently, and the futures cotton, electronic disk and spot goods have all risen slightly. During the transitional period of the new and old years, there is unlimited purchase and storage, and cotton prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. The internal and external market trends are consistent, showing a consolidation stage after breaking the market. A complex double bottom has been formed, and there is still room for upward movement after stabilizing.

In terms of operation, the remaining multiple orders will continue to be held until they fall back to 19400 and the profit stop position will be added back.

[Wanda Futures] It is rumored that China's stock dumping and export downturn led to the decline of American cotton

It is rumored that China will sell millions of tons of national reserves in September to alleviate the current shortage of resources in the Chinese market. At the same time, as of the week of August 16, the US cotton contracted to export 19000 tons of cotton this year, and the shipment was only 31000 tons, indicating that global demand is still weak, which led to the continued correction of ICE cotton, which fell 0.17 cents to 76.8 cents per pound in December on Thursday, falling for two consecutive days. The price above 76 cents/pound is attracting manufacturers to sell cotton. At present, there is no obvious positive factor in the overall market, so it is appropriate to be cautious about the rebound.

On Thursday, ICE cotton futures again bottomed out and rebounded slightly. The main contract in December was still stable and far away from the short-term average. The short-term average continued to rise in the long order. KD and MACD indicators continued to rise in the long order. The MACD indicator red column grew, and the rising trend would continue. If the contract in December could stand above 77.07 cents/pound, the next target would be 84 cents/pound.

The market is about to enter a new year, and the policy of 20400 yuan/ton will be formally implemented. The Chinese government will have a clear attitude towards the purchase and storage. At present, the cotton price is still a certain distance from 20400 yuan/ton. A large amount of purchase and storage will bring the cotton price closer to 20400 yuan/ton, which is one of the main supports for cotton prices in the near future. On the other hand, the Chinese government has increased the quota of 400000 tons of processing trade. At the same time, it is rumored that relevant institutions are discussing plans to dump and store millions of tons of reserves. China's exports and consumption are still weak, which seriously curbs the popularity of the market bulls, and is also the main reason for Zheng Mian's shock decline in the past two days. Therefore, the market enters the game stage of policy and consumption, Zheng Mian It is expected to continue the horizontal pattern, cautiously hold multiple orders, and pay attention to the support and pressure level of 1301 contract at 19400-19700 yuan/ton.

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