The Decline Or Slowing Down Of Textile Industry In The Second Half Of 2012

"Exports are hard to improve and production costs continue to rise.

The gap continues to rise and the loss of enterprises will be difficult to reverse. The growth rate of production and sales in the second half of the textile industry will continue to slow down. "

In August 30th, the China Textile Industry Federation issued the third textile industry economic operation in 2012. It pointed out that the textile industry continued to slow down this year. The growth rate of main economic indicators such as production, domestic sales, exports, investment and profits continued to slow down or even negative growth. The textile industry in the second half of the year is still grim.

But we hope that the domestic demand market will rebound in the second half of the year, and we expect to slow down the growth rate of textile production and sales.

Industry situation is still grim.

The latest textile industry's main economic indicators are still falling all the way.

Production deceleration continues, and deceleration is increasing.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, from 1 to July this year, the total output value of 37 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 3 trillion and 146 billion 710 million yuan, an increase of 10.9% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 18.8 percentage points over the same period last year, down 3.8 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

"Exports are still almost zero growth."

Sun Huaibin, spokesman of China Textile Industry Federation, said at the press conference that textile and clothing exports increased by only 0.3% from 1 to July this year, while the actual export volume of textile industry is negative after deducting the price rising factor.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, textile and apparel exports to US $141 billion 580 million from 1 to July this year, the growth rate dropped by 25 percentage points compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

In terms of domestic demand, both the growth of consumption and output value both dropped.

According to statistics, from 1 to July this year, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 17% over the same period last year, down 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year. If the price factor is deducted, the actual growth rate of retail sales is 13%, down 5.7 percentage points from the same period last year.

Data show that from 1 to July, the domestic sales value of textile enterprises above designated size was 2 trillion and 577 billion 30 million yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the same period last year, a decrease of 20.3 percentage points from the same period last year, representing a 3.8 percentage point decrease compared with the first quarter of this year.

But what worries the industry most is the sharp drop in profits.

From 1 to June this year, the total profit of textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 14 billion 790 million yuan, down 1.9% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 43.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and the sales profit margin was 4.5%, down 0.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

The loss of enterprises is 18.4%, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 124.1% over the same period last year.

It is worth noting that among the sub sectors, cotton textile and chemical fiber are most affected by the price fluctuation of raw materials, and the profits of the industries are all showing a negative growth trend.

From 1 to June, the chemical fiber industry dropped by 52.3%, and the profits of 105 key cotton textile enterprises dropped by 52.1%.

Sun Huaibin pointed out that "cotton spinning and chemical fiber are the main source of profit for the textile industry. The sharp decline in their profits has affected the overall loss of the industry, and the overall profit growth has slowed down, or even negative growth."

"The negative growth of the textile industry in the second half of this year is difficult to fundamentally reverse, and exports will continue to be stressed due to the continued downturn in the external demand market. The cost of production, cost of energy and financing costs will continue to exist for a long time."

Sun Huaibin generally judged that the textile industry in the second half of this year is still grim.

Cotton prices become industry pain points

Although the textile industry is facing various external unfavorable factors such as domestic macro-economic deceleration, international market downturn, and various factors of production costs continue to grow, the "cotton price" is considered to be the biggest factor that blocks the throat of the textile industry.

"Cotton price difference is still the biggest problem in the industry."

Sun Huaibin said that since 2012, the domestic

The price has always been higher than the international market and the price difference has been widening. As of mid August, the domestic cotton price has been more than 5000 yuan higher than the international market, and the price difference has increased by 67% over the beginning of the year.

"The spread of cotton prices is too large, directly leading to the negative growth of the export of cotton products in China, and the production efficiency of cotton textile enterprises is getting worse and worse."

Sun Huaibin said that due to the excessive price spread of cotton, the cotton textile enterprises ceased production and limited production phenomenon is constantly emerging, especially in small and medium-sized enterprises.

A few days ago, it was reported that the state will start a new round of cotton temporary purchase and storage policy from September. The price will be 20400 yuan / ton, which is much higher than the current domestic price of 19500 yuan / ton cotton.

Sun Huaibin is worried that the high price will further increase the price difference between cotton and other countries, thus making the domestic textile industry chain lose competitiveness in the international market.

{page_break}

Domestic demand is the only hope for the textile industry.

However, the industry is not entirely pessimistic.

The improvement of the income of urban and rural residents and the expansion of domestic demand policies in the external environment are bringing hope to the growth of the domestic demand market, which has become the last straw in the textile industry.

Sun Huaibin said that although the slowdown in domestic economic growth slowed down this year, the growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing has slowed down compared with the same period last year. However, the income of urban and rural residents is still growing steadily. In the first half of this year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the per capita real income of rural residents increased by 9.7% and 12.4% respectively, which provided the fundamental driving force for the growth of domestic demand.

At the same time, insisting on expanding domestic demand is still an important starting point for macroeconomic regulation and control policies.

Sun pointed out that in recent years, domestic monetary policy has eased somewhat, and prices have steadily declined. With the further effect, it will play a positive role in promoting domestic consumption growth.

At the market level, textile enterprises are constantly gaining success by strengthening the brand promotion of domestic market, actively adjusting and responding to market changes.

"The dependence of domestic enterprises on the market has always been greater than the dependence on policy, which enables domestic enterprises to keep pace with the market, adjust and respond in a timely manner, and the sharp rise in the slowdown in the domestic demand market is a reflection of the adjustment and exploration of the results that have been achieved."

Sun Huaibin said in answer to a question from the China Commercial Daily reporter.

Therefore, on the whole, although the consumption of clothing and domestic consumption will remain below the level of the previous year, the international market demand is also difficult to improve significantly. The cost of domestic production factors will continue to rise, and the negative growth of industrial efficiency will not be reversed. However, the China Textile Industry association still expects that the rate of decline in production and sales growth in the industry may be gradually reduced.

"Because of the gradual increase in domestic demand and the low base of statistics in the same period last year,

Industry will continue to show a gradual growth trend throughout the year.

Sun Huaibin said that the domestic demand market is now the only hope.